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January 23-25th Winter Wx

I just can't get over these ridiculous model runs. 12z GFS is almost at the end of the event range and it's impressive
 
Imho, the 1982 Ice Storm in Central Alabama was at least equal to the Blizzard of 1993 as far as long term impacts. Most folks under 50 won’t have much recollection of that event. The majority of folks on the 1-20 corridor from Bham to ATL have never dealt with a true ice storm like that.

We do NOT want anything close to that.
 
I'm definitely hoping for snow, but any kind of freezing precipitation will still be bad news for Southerners, especially if there's as much as there seems like there will be.
 
I think the real forecast now becomes the rain/ZR/snow lines. I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion based on the models that this is going to be a big winter storm. In central Alabama based on what the models show right now, I'd bet on the BHM corridor taking the brunt of the ice storm, with the rain/ZR line somewhere in Shelby county and the ZR/all snow line somewhere near Dodge City up on the plateau in Cullman county.
 
Blountwolf said:
I think the real forecast now becomes the rain/ZR/snow lines. I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion based on the models that this is going to be a big winter storm. In central Alabama based on what the models show right now, I'd bet on the BHM corridor taking the brunt of the ice storm, with the rain/ZR line somewhere in Shelby county and the ZR/all snow line somewhere near Dodge City up on the plateau in Cullman county.
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Is it possible that some areas get ice and snow on top of each other?
 
Ars4ua said:
Is it possible that some areas get ice and snow on top of each other?
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That's what the GFS trends look like to me, offhand. The heaviest freezing rain accumulation looks like it shifted south and has been partially replaced by snow north of Birmingham. I would take this to likely mean freezing rain for awhile at my place in SW Blount County with a transition to snow. Maybe that would save us from an ice storm catastrophe in my immediate area, but Birmingham proper would really get it.
 
Mike S said:
I think I might finally go buy a generator this time around. Just in case.
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Im staying at my parents for this event because they have one. My neighborhood is also dangerous because everything is surrounding my house is trees and I have lots of decent sized branches hanging over my house, any little storm knocks out the power for half a day so imagine half a inch of ice and what that'd do there gives me a headache.
 
Mike S said:
I think I might finally go buy a generator this time around. Just in case.
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We are just north of you in Hazel Green. If I were going to get a generator, I would do so before close of business today.

If this forecast verifies, and with all of the above-ground utilities and trees falling due to ice around Huntsville and Madison County; power may be out for several days, or longer.
 
Ars4ua said:
Is it possible that some areas get ice and snow on top of each other?
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Absolutely. Likely, in fact - looks like a line of all snow will get dragged over most areas where there was ice as the storm passes and cold air floods in from the west.
 
I'd love to see more snow than freezing rain and hoping that's some sort of trend but if we get significant ice then significant snow on top of that, that might make the ice loads worse and insulate the ice to keep it around longer lol. Not to mention, if snow becomes the trend, Tuesday night is gonna be an interesting one in regard to lows

GFS still feels like an outlier synoptically, progressing things through too fast while the Euro has been ridiculously consistent, but there's still definitely time to trend
 
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