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Severe Weather 2025

Our tornado threat, albeit low should continue thru the night with further bands of low topped, discrete cells. Brief, low end, sporadic spinups will be plausible and we aren't done either. Another threat should come thru Christmas night with a line capable of weak, brief tornadoes in the same vicinity of W California. As i go to bed, I'd like to wish all a Merry Christmas and a brilliant time tomorrow!
 
Merry Christmas!
 
Rotation looks to have weakened, but it still has some nice structure.
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Brief, low end tornado threat will be within any clusters or to the south with better shear vectors, low topped discrete cells. A sneaky and conditional low end tornado threat also exists with cells in Central California. Should be a slightly active few hours, and a tornado warning or two wouldn't shock me. i have to be ready for my vacation with family tmrw so night, everyone and hope your Christmas was great!
 
Can't help but feel like whatever cold front comes and wipes out these 80 degree temps down south is going to wreak havoc in a major way. The Arctic circle has been too active to think it won't. I'm just wondering how long it'll be before the GFS starts showing something extremely concerning. It seems like a "when" not "if" situation to me.

But what do I know? I'm just going off vibes.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Can't help but feel like whatever cold front comes and wipes out these 80 degree temps down south is going to wreak havoc in a major way. The Arctic circle has been too active to think it won't. I'm just wondering how long it'll be before the GFS starts showing something extremely concerning. It seems like a "when" not "if" situation to me.

But what do I know? I'm just going off vibes.
Click to expand...
It's hard to not recognise such strong moisture advection into the US with this really. When that spark comes, we'll see but i don't think this pattern will continue for long. Everything comes to a end eventually, and if our quiet period comes soon, we will see what 2026 delivers for its opening. Hopefully nothing explosive, that's for sure..
 
I don't know but two things stick out like sore thumbs for what should be a severe weather threat Sunday/Early Monday:
1. Significant temperature difference Sunday into Monday for Smithville. high 77 (might as well say 80) on Sunday to 44 Monday. A 36 degree difference.
2. Plus the ongoing severe weather/tornado risk in California.

Those two things tell me to watch for a more potent/significant risk. The other thing that also hints at this is the fact the NWS Jackson, MS mentioned in their afternoon AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) that guidance has trended a bit slower with the front passing through.
 
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