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Severe Weather 2025

KevinH said:
Speaking of D1, I am not sure if this warrants a thread or not.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.

...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty winds and a tornado or two.

As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of severe storms through much of the night across central LA and southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025
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Meh. "A tornado or two" and "a few tornadoes" doesn't sound like particularly strong wording.
 
My thoughts remain the same, and strong tornado potential appears to pretty much have zoned out on this threat at least to me. LLLRs around 5 being horrific and I wouldn't have much confidence in the confluence bands doing anything significant. A few tornadoes may be possible, and additionally a sneaky 1am confluence band in W MS could do things. The mode should be linear and then when those confluence band initiates, your relatively higher tornado threat will begin but their discussion doesn't seem as potent as it sounded yesterday.
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
My thoughts remain the same, and strong tornado potential appears to pretty much have zoned out on this threat at least to me. LLLRs around 5 being horrific and I wouldn't have much confidence in the confluence bands doing anything significant. A few tornadoes may be possible, and additionally a sneaky 1am confluence band in W MS could do things. The mode should be linear and then when those confluence band initiates, your relatively higher tornado threat will begin but their discussion doesn't seem as potent as it sounded yesterday.
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Deep South can still pull off tornadoes even with pitiful LLLRs. Nevertheless, at that point, you're relying on Southern Luck, not thermodynamics. Wouldn't expect much today, but one or two boundary-riders may still produce.
UncleJuJu98 said:
12z hrrr looks like a line of almost broken supercells in parts of Alabama/Mississippi/Georgia on Tuesday>
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Instability is actually fairly decent tomorrow. Add widespread SRH values of 150-300 m2/s2, I'd say it's a more-than-alright setup for a limited tornado risk across Alabama and Georgia tomorrow. Soundings not far from my backyard and from east-central Alabama at 19Z - slight contamination on the first, but it's still a faithful interpretation of the environment. Smallish but well-rounded hodographs could definitely be tornado-favorable, and instability is more than enough for this time of year. Most importantly, the instability isn't locked exclusively into the actual convective line, but it's distributed well out ahead of it, too. Only limiting factor is possible early-day convection, which is visible on HRRR but less prominent on the NAM.
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Clancy said:
Deep South can still pull off tornadoes even with pitiful LLLRs. Nevertheless, at that point, you're relying on Southern Luck, not thermodynamics. Wouldn't expect much today, but one or two boundary-riders may still produce.

Instability is actually fairly decent tomorrow. Add widespread SRH values of 150-300 m2/s2, I'd say it's a more-than-alright setup for a limited tornado risk across Alabama and Georgia tomorrow. Soundings not far from my backyard and from east-central Alabama at 19Z - slight contamination on the first, but it's still a faithful interpretation of the environment. Smallish but well-rounded hodographs could definitely be tornado-favorable, and instability is more than enough for this time of year. Most importantly, the instability isn't locked exclusively into the actual convective line, but it's distributed well out ahead of it, too. Only limiting factor is possible early-day convection, which is visible on HRRR but less prominent on the NAM.
View attachment 48856View attachment 48857View attachment 48858View attachment 48859View attachment 48860View attachment 48861
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Oh, just regular tornadoes in pitful LLLRs is achievable. Never doubted today will have potential for tornadoes, jjst just more that your more potent kinematics will face very "gutpunch" issues in terms of significant tornadogenesis. We will see.
 
KevinH said:
Don’t necessarily need strong wording for a thread lol
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True, but the threat today doesn't seem like one that is significant enough to warrant a thread. Could just be me though
 
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