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Hurricane Melissa

Blountwolf said:
Give it 10 years and decent funding, and we'll do recon unmanned. It's coming.

One concern with that is how hard the NE turn is. A little too hard and it drags the worst right front quadrant over Kingston still. Worst case it hard rights and is over the island longer west to east. I really think it's a matter of degrees of catastrophe though, honestly - the wind at elevation in the mountains around Kingston are going to rip it apart almost no matter where it passes, unless a miracle occurs. I'd not want to be anywhere on that island for the next 48. Here's hoping the whole track is miraculously wrong.

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The thing that stinks here is there are truly no "good" outcomes - only some less bad or more bad outcomes. With the current track, a large number of disparate and smaller, but still substantial, towns will be impacted hardest, which will serve to vastly increase the complexity of initial, high-urgency response - if one can be mounted by domestic resources at all. Like you said, if this turn is as hard as it looks like it may be, that'll be very bad news for Kingston. What I'm really worried about is that emergency resources, even once they're coming in from all directions, might mostly get stuck in Kingston and Montego Bay, with these numerous, smaller communities left languishing for days, or potentially weeks after impact. A very heartbreaking situation regardless - Jamaica will need a lot of help post-storm in terms of rescue and recovery.
 
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The convection in her "feed" is firing off again... It's interesting how those big blowups coincide with that. There's connections there we don't understand very well yet, IMO.
 
tornado examiner said:
It may have weakened in response to this recent structural change. So, if it was sub 900mb it may not be that for much longer. However it could also be getting even stronger but usually big wobbles like that indicate a slight weakening trend.
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There is an increase in lightning and has been for atleast an hour. It is probably staying the same intensity or strengthening slightly. I could be wrong though.
 
This storm is that strong it's essentially just doing what it wants. What extreme CAPE did to Valley View and El Reno, that's what a very intense TC does to its own currents. It just deviates and does the unexpected. We could be in for some insane data here...
 
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