WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That's absolutely incredible if legit and Melissa is genuinely sustaining. I didn't think I'd see something like Milton for a while but oh my word
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Hurricane Melissa
- Thread starter Jacob Aden
- Start date
Well, not at the surface - 160 - 170 at the surface. 200+ a few hundred feet up though. Screaming. The 170KTs isn't dropsonde measured. Dropsonde is the official, SFMR is a radar estimate, basically.
Dropsonde:
A small instrument package released from the aircraft that falls through the storm on a parachute. It measures temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind (via GPS drift) as it descends. That gives a vertical profile of the atmosphere — the most accurate way to get surface pressure and a full wind profile down the column. The key output is the surface wind and central pressure near the storm’s eye.
SFMR:
A microwave radiometer fixed under the aircraft that looks down at the ocean surface continuously as the plane flies. It measures the microwave emissions from sea foam, which correlate with surface wind speed. So SFMR gives instant, continuous surface wind estimates along the flight path, not vertical profiles.
N0mz
Member
Dropsonde for the latest eye pass should be out any minute now.
TornadoFan
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Hearing this from lots of people but apparently its eye is 25C.
Code:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:08Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Name: Melissa
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 15:46:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.35N 78.19W
B. Center Fix Location: 147 statute miles (237 km) to the SW (218°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,325m (7,628ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 909mb (26.85 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 17kts (From the SSE at 20mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 149kts (171.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NE (41°) of center fix at 15:44:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 127° at 161kts (From the SE at 185.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NE (41°) of center fix at 15:44:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 163kts (187.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNW (347°) of center fix at 15:52:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 75° at 156kts (From the ENE at 179.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNW (347°) of center fix at 15:52:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 15:44:00ZN0mz
Member
163kt surface level in the NE eyewall Dropsonde
Indeed.
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'm hearing recon found 163kt surface winds, and that would be 187 mph? This storm is incredible if genuine and not people just overdoing it
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
N0mz
Member
Not sure what the maximum increase the NHC does advisory to advisory but I could be convinced on 180 mph (remember 175 mph isn’t used)
N0mz
Member
Next plane takes off in 3 and a half hours, should be at the eye in around 6.
Smokedevil
Member
187? Oh my. Gusts are probably 215 to 220. If not higher.
This will basically be a giant EF 5 tornado.
I don't know how else to describe what will happen.
This will basically be a giant EF 5 tornado.
I don't know how else to describe what will happen.
lake.effect
Member
I believe we're approaching the theoretical physical limit of hurricane strength in the Atlantic basin in terms of wind speed.
lake.effect
Member
North turn has definitely started, even a slight wobble NNE on the last few frames?
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
What even is the limit? I just don't know how high this things gonna go
majorhurricane1703
Member
I agree, but I do think there is an outside chance this can get to 200 mph especially when I hear only a few hundred feet off of the surface and the vertical wind profile continues to build. If a 200 mph hurricane is ever going to happen ever in the Atlantic it will be with Melissa in my view.
N0mz
Member
Allen’s 190mph is gonna be tough to beat. Would have to pack on about 20 mph in 16 hours or so.
There is technically a limit at any given location/time within the atmosphere but I imagine it's something ill-defined at best. I imagine the height of the tropopause at any given location within a basin is strongly correlated to the maximum possible strength a TC can reach, at least in terms of central pressure.