Tropical Storm Melissa

[N0mz]

Just about every google ensemble member has landfall in Jamaica as a cat 4 or cat 5. Feels just about unavoidable at this point.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Just about every google ensemble member has landfall in Jamaica as a cat 4 or cat 5. Feels just about unavoidable at this point.

I’m very skeptical of a landfall in Jamaica. Jamaica will get intense damage regardless, but it’s quite rare for a hurricane to go directly over the island. Storms just have a tendency to almost always go left or right of the island due to mountainous frictional forces and overall shape of Jamaica.

 

[Atlantic]

Highest possible peak intensity of Melissa is 170 kts (A blistering 195 mph) (Haiyan-level winds), if it stays over water for a long time.

 

[TornadoFan]

We might already be seeing an eyewall forming

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

If this drops 5 millibars every 2 hours then in 24 hours she'll be at 935 mbar and in 48 she'll hit 875.

 

[Blountwolf]

a other bad sign has showed up.

a very common thing to see with rapid intensification is a strange large thunderstorm blob beside it
here is hurricane Mathew with its blob


here is milton with its blob


might notice they tend to be on the east or the north.

I submit to you that the blobs are a function of the winds aloft. Transport of moisture aloft N/E at 500h:



I can't speak with images in front of me that the same was present in the other "blob" storms, but I would suspect it.

 

[tornado examiner]

Can the NHC upgrade a forecast to category 5 before it becomes one or has evidence of being one?

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Can the NHC upgrade a forecast to category 5 before it becomes one or has evidence of being one?

Yes. They did it for Erin AND Humberto this year, they did it for Kristy last year, they did it for Otis in 2023, they did it for Eta in 2020, they did it for Norman in 2018, they did it for Blanca and Jimena in 2015, they did it for Igor in 2010, and they did it for Gustav in 2008.

 

[tornado examiner]

Yes. They did it for Humberto AND Erin this year, they did it for Kristy last year, they did it for Otis in 2023, they did it for Eta in 2020, they did it for Norman in 2018, they did it for Jimena and Blanca in 2015, they did it for Igor in 2010, and they did it for Gustav in 2008.

Aah. Yea. Right. I was more so thinking this far out though before it's even a major hurricane.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Aah. Yea. Right. I was more so thinking this far out though before it's even a major hurricane.

No I don't think they've ever done that.

Also, if Melissa really blows her top, how likely is it that we see a C5 by daybreak tomorrow?

 

[tornado examiner]

No I don't think they've ever done that.

Also, if Melissa lets go, how likely is it that we see a C5 by daybreak tomorrow?

That would be unlikely. But certainly possible by late afternoon tomorrow.

 

[tornado examiner]

Pressure is still dropping. Down to 993MB now.

 

[tornado examiner]

Pressure dropping, eye wall forming.
It's go time for sure.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I'm an idot 0 clue this existed lol but yeah uhm Melissa is kinda speed running ri rn

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

18z hfas-a is uhm something current frame shows a pressure of 921mb

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

so shear still a thing it seems, but once that clears its really gonna shift into overdrive

 

[tornado examiner]

so shear still a thing it seems, but once that clears its really gonna shift into overdrive

Is it weakening shear though? It was forecast to lessen to nearly nothing this weekend.

 

[Blountwolf]

Is it weakening shear though? It was forecast to lessen to nearly nothing this weekend.

North Atlantic - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Storm Zoom

 

[tornado examiner]

View attachment 47682

North Atlantic - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Storm Zoom

Yup. It is. Hmmmm.