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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I forgot which panelist made the point, it may have been Kim, but they said there are communities where these F5s/EF5s are wrapped up in the town’s identity and are now part of their culture. When I hear Xenia, Guin, Phil Campbell etc. I think of those tornados. Hell, here in Kentucky, I can be amongst people who have zero clue about this stuff and the first mention of Brandenburg elicits a “the town that tornado swept into the river in the 70s?”
Kds86z
Member
Gosh, if only all offices had this mindset instead of half a$$ing.
Yes, an F5/EF5 is absolutely a monument for these towns and their survivors, particularly the ones that recovered.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
And they say that the residents don't really care but there was Mayfield residents that were heavily intrigued into the rating process and how such. Residents are just as intrigued into the rating process, and like you said this is now a part of the town and a part of the residents who survived. Absolutely, bang on
tornado examiner
Member
I find it interesting that multiple poorly anchored ranch style subfloor homes have been rated EF4 this year. Yet the homes from matador are still stuck with the high end EF3 rating.
Despite one of them essentially disappearing with a cracked foundation walls, shredded tree’s, and bare soil scoured grass field. With vehicles thrown and mutilated.
Despite one of them essentially disappearing with a cracked foundation walls, shredded tree’s, and bare soil scoured grass field. With vehicles thrown and mutilated.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, Matador PROBABLY deserves some look back but I'm not too sure of it...
Attachments
It has been a really good couple days for tornado science. I can't believe how quickly NWS Grand Forks managed to flip everything on its head. Feels like a total culture shift.
Also here's the full Tim Marshall interview
Pretty hilariously, the interviewer admits to trying to push Tim Marshall into giving a substantial answer about re rating previous tornadoes.
Also here's the full Tim Marshall interview
Pretty hilariously, the interviewer admits to trying to push Tim Marshall into giving a substantial answer about re rating previous tornadoes.
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Beachwalker
Member
I mean, train cars ready to be scrapped are a dime a dozen, and somewhere there must be a large wind tunnel…
I’m a little confused about the Mayfield situation. I’ve seen two very different wind speed estimates for the train cars in Barnsley. While I have always had skepticism about some of Ethan Moriarty’s work, especially regarding his more recent take on Rochelle 2015, I can’t ignore that he pretty much produced the same results of the Enderlin survey well before it was finalized and released. As a result, I’m inclined to believe his methodology at least when it comes to wind speeds derived from objects being moved.
Kind of a bummer to see Mayfield essentially tossed back into the proverbial “no EF5” bin so quickly though.
Kind of a bummer to see Mayfield essentially tossed back into the proverbial “no EF5” bin so quickly though.
Ozonelayer
Member
Not necessarily in the "no EF-5" bin yet.
We do have some reports of vehicles being lofted hundreds of yards (Atleast 100 yards, plausibly more) by the Mayfield Tornado, and while I haven't found an exact length of the cars being lofted, as well as a few other DI's like the water tower, it is possible that these could show EF-5 winds. Also, I am working on refining my calculations (For example, the Mayfield train car vs the Tuscaloosa truss bridge). Until then, Mayfield is in the "Possible EF-5" bin.
I do agree with trusting Ethan over myself though. I'm still learning the math but I'm getting better at it!
I have a feeling one of the big questions the recent paper answered was how elevation change and time of exposure (to wind) play into the calculations. The study combined tens of thousands of actual tornado model runs to simulate every possible wind scenario. My theory is the reason the output of the basic physics calculations were so similar to the new algorithm in Enderlin was because the terrain was so flat.
If flat terrain lowers the required wind speeds as much as the difference between Ethan and @Ozonelayer's calculations say it do, it definitely means the situation with incorrect ratings might not be quite as extreme as we thought. I do really want Ethan's opinions on this paper though. I've been trying to share it with him on Twitter lol.
We really need more info about that
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Ozonelayer
Member
Yep!
Also I have Identified a few of the vehicles that were lofted. One was a Ford F 150, and another as a Ram 1500 (Similar to what Lake City lofted half a mile earlier this year.)
Im going to review how Ethan does it, then apply that math and see what results I get. I trust Ethan a lot more than I trust myself, hell I'm not even entirely sure if I got Tuscaloosa right. I definitely didn't match Ethan with the Mayfield Train Car though.
By the way, sorry to ask, but If you have any images of the oil drum it's help a ton!
Ok I've committed Tim Marshall's body to the cause. Assuming Tim Marshall is 6 ft tall, the cylinder is about 2 Tim Marshalls tall, and 1.3 Tim Marshalls Wide. That's 12'x8'.
The container weighed 15 tons according to @buckeye05, and was thrown 3/4ths of a mile (660 Tim Marshalls). Is this enough for a rough estimate assuming the terrain was completely flat?
Wait, two questions:
1.) Mayfield threw an oil container 3/4 of a mile!? I had no idea this occurred. Where did it happen?? Would love some details on this.
2.) Was it an oil tank or an oil drum? Those are two very different things. Oil tanks can be massive steel containers weighing dozens of tons. An oil drum on the other hand is literally just a metal barrel, typically about 4 feet tall and could probably be tossed that distance by an EF2 or EF3.
Ooooooh that. That was Vilonia, not Mayfield. It was also a fertilizer tank, not an oil drum.
Dang I got them mixed up! Could've sworn I heard of something like that about Mayfield. Thank you for correcting the bad info!
Ozonelayer
Member
That is quite possibly the greatest feat of lofting something outside of Greensburg I have ever seen. And yes that is enough.