tornado examiner
Member
It did thrown and rip farm equipment to pieces. I think a combine was involved in that.
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DanLarsen34
Member
Seeing the discussion here about how they came to this rating: there’s a ton of high-end EF-4s that could be reclassified if they choose to do this. In fact, it could be what pushes the EF-5 count for April 27, 2011 above the 1974 Super Outbreak.
DanLarsen34
Member
Another thought I just had looking at this: what on earth would the projected wind speed be for the Smithville EF-5 given what it did to vehicles?
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Not sure but I personally have it at 350+, which is admittedly very very arbitrary. That 350+ is my estimate for my entire top 10 with the exception of Piedmont which I have at 400+ (again, arbitrary)
On another note, gotta update my map again lol
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Also, the drought is usually considered to have kicked off when El Reno 2013 was downgraded from EF5 to EF3, and ended when Enderlin was upgraded from EF3 to EF5. A fitting bookend to one of the most notorious periods in weather history.
Um….HOLY CRAP!
So, I admit I was getting a little bored and disillusioned with tornadoes and their ratings as a hobby, but this has brought me BACK! The drought is over and an incredible precedent has been set!
Do you know what this means!? It means context-based EF5s are a thing again, and DEBARKING is now established as an EF5 indicator if it is done via particulate rather than debris loading!!! I have thought for years that particulate/sandblasting debarking vs debris debarking are two separate phenomenon, with the prior being linked to only the most violent tornadoes and it’s finally validated. The same concept applies for grass scouring in rural areas. It also establishes lofting of multi-ton objects as EF5 candidates! Needless to say, this is HUGE! There are so MANY tornadoes that now meet the EF5 criteria that previously did not! Let’s hope this is the beginning of a retroactive re-analysis of many EF5 candidates, and we see the official list of EF5s grow and expand to include all the ones that have been missed throughout the past 15 years. Pretty much every “shoulda been” EF5 can be upgraded now. Even Bassfield with the insane debarking along Willie Fortenberry Road. The crazy debarking near Buckeye, Arkansas. Maybe even Mayfield with the tossed tanker cars in Barnsley. This just opens up SO MANY possibilities for upgrades!
I don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch, but this could be the beginning of end of the hyper-conservative, engineering only, no context included approach to damage surveys. We may finally be on a path towards reasonable surveys that accurately reflect tornado intensity.
Huge thanks to people like Tony Lyza who were willing to go against the grain and say “Hey, I think this EF5 drought is a result of unreasonable surveying methods”. All the weather geeks out there who questioned the current state of damage surveys deserve credit too (albeit only the ones who did so in a mature, constructive manner).
Just wow. This is a huge day, and hopefully a turning point in the world of damage surveying and EF scale application.
So, I admit I was getting a little bored and disillusioned with tornadoes and their ratings as a hobby, but this has brought me BACK! The drought is over and an incredible precedent has been set!
Do you know what this means!? It means context-based EF5s are a thing again, and DEBARKING is now established as an EF5 indicator if it is done via particulate rather than debris loading!!! I have thought for years that particulate/sandblasting debarking vs debris debarking are two separate phenomenon, with the prior being linked to only the most violent tornadoes and it’s finally validated. The same concept applies for grass scouring in rural areas. It also establishes lofting of multi-ton objects as EF5 candidates! Needless to say, this is HUGE! There are so MANY tornadoes that now meet the EF5 criteria that previously did not! Let’s hope this is the beginning of a retroactive re-analysis of many EF5 candidates, and we see the official list of EF5s grow and expand to include all the ones that have been missed throughout the past 15 years. Pretty much every “shoulda been” EF5 can be upgraded now. Even Bassfield with the insane debarking along Willie Fortenberry Road. The crazy debarking near Buckeye, Arkansas. Maybe even Mayfield with the tossed tanker cars in Barnsley. This just opens up SO MANY possibilities for upgrades!
I don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch, but this could be the beginning of end of the hyper-conservative, engineering only, no context included approach to damage surveys. We may finally be on a path towards reasonable surveys that accurately reflect tornado intensity.
Huge thanks to people like Tony Lyza who were willing to go against the grain and say “Hey, I think this EF5 drought is a result of unreasonable surveying methods”. All the weather geeks out there who questioned the current state of damage surveys deserve credit too (albeit only the ones who did so in a mature, constructive manner).
Just wow. This is a huge day, and hopefully a turning point in the world of damage surveying and EF scale application.
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tornado examiner
Member
Let us start by fixing the damage those engineers in Texas did to matador. I'm fairly certain all of those thrown and mangled and debarked mesquite tree’s warrant an EF4 rating at the very least. I know it's too much to hope for but still.
As well as the numerous shredded vehicles. And slabbed homes. Mind you that an unanchored farmhome from the Enderlin tornado was bumped to 180mph EF4.
Based on the compact objects thrown over 50m study the list of upgradeable tornadoes is absurd. Here's what I have in no particular order.
Westminster, TX
Trousdale, KS
Clinton, AR
Picher, OK
Cullman, AL
Flat Rock, AL
New Wren, MS (threw a truck 3000 yards)
Ringgold, GA
Sawyerville, AL
Tuscaloosa, AL
El Reno, OK (2013)
Louisville, KY
Beauregard, AL
Rolling Fork, MS
Almena, KS
Lake City, AR
Bakersfield, MO
Diaz, AR
Oil trough, AR
Grinnell, KS
London, KY
Bassfield, MS
Bradshaw, NE
Camp Crook, SD (threw a 10,000 pound tractor 1.5 miles)
Continued....
Westminster, TX
Trousdale, KS
Clinton, AR
Picher, OK
Cullman, AL
Flat Rock, AL
New Wren, MS (threw a truck 3000 yards)
Ringgold, GA
Sawyerville, AL
Tuscaloosa, AL
El Reno, OK (2013)
Louisville, KY
Beauregard, AL
Rolling Fork, MS
Almena, KS
Lake City, AR
Bakersfield, MO
Diaz, AR
Oil trough, AR
Grinnell, KS
London, KY
Bassfield, MS
Bradshaw, NE
Camp Crook, SD (threw a 10,000 pound tractor 1.5 miles)
Continued....
tornado examiner
Member
Remember the numerous unsurveyed slabbed, horrific scouring, shredded tree’s, mutilated cars, and just, general “THIS IS AN EF5 WHAT ARE YOU DOING SURVEYORS?” nature of the thing? Me too. This precedent is an opportunity to fix a whole lot of miss steps in short order.
tornado examiner
Member
I'm also noticing that the Gary sd tornado has some updates on the DAT. Perhaps that one is also being looked at again because they appear to have refined the damage track line a bit more as of a few hours ago. And I think they added some new info to the comment.
I’ve certainly been harsh and blamed a lot of the ratings issues on some of the engineers (specifically the Texas Tech wind engineers) previously. However, it’s pretty ironic it was an engineering study by 2 engineers and 1 meteorologist that kind of laid the groundwork for this upgrade with their lofting of heavy objects paper. Of course I mentioned it earlier, but Tim Marshall being involved on the upgrade got a chuckle out of me just because a lot of people make him public enemy #1
Canton, TX
Chapman, KS
Delmont, SD
Flat Rock, AR
Greenfield, IA
Henryville, KY
Berlin, ND
Matador, TX
Goldsby, OK
Chickasha, OK
Canton, OK
Mayfield, KY
Osceola, NE
Pilger, NE
Vilonia, AR
Washington, IL
And this is all barely even scratching the surface. What the study really shows is that the wind brackets on the EF scale are FAR too low. because there have been dozens of tornadoes with winds exceeding 200 mph in the last 20 years, and we have concrete proof of that now.
Chapman, KS
Delmont, SD
Flat Rock, AR
Greenfield, IA
Henryville, KY
Berlin, ND
Matador, TX
Goldsby, OK
Chickasha, OK
Canton, OK
Mayfield, KY
Osceola, NE
Pilger, NE
Vilonia, AR
Washington, IL
And this is all barely even scratching the surface. What the study really shows is that the wind brackets on the EF scale are FAR too low. because there have been dozens of tornadoes with winds exceeding 200 mph in the last 20 years, and we have concrete proof of that now.
tornado examiner
Member
(surveyors take notes.)
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I can now say for certain that Matador deserved an EF5 rating. Not EF5 intensity - an EF5 rating.
And Bassfield, and Tri-State '21, and Tuscaloosa, and Chapman, and....
This will be one of the watershed days in recent weather history. I am damn near certain of that.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
And, as a nice addendum: my entire weather career so far has been spent with the dream of one day tracking an EF5 in situ. Today, I learned that my dream has finally come true.