Aaron Rider
Member
I agree with you, first of all, but do those pictures show granulation??
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
Didn’t expect this event to drop a 118 mile long tornado over any other. That supercell would have been wicked in presentation if it wasn’t in a radar hole.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
Wow, nearly 119 miles. The last time I think a tornado stayed on the ground in March for over 100 mph was in Nebraska on March 13, 1990. I think that tornado was on the ground 131 miles. It also may be possible that tornado was also a tornado family.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
I'm not sure if this has been talked about yet, but at 117 tornadoes this is the largest in recorded history during the month of March. If the 3/31/23 outbreak happened a day earlier, the record wouldn't have been broken.
Kds86z
Member
True. I did ask myself at one point what about 3/31 but remembered it went into April 1.
Kds86z
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
Even the northern or southern high risks of 3/31/23 (taken individually) didn't quite achieve a look like that. Certainly none of the Plains high risks since 2012 have.
N0mz
Member
I mean yeah, it was the outbreak with the 4th highest RIV since 2000 (4/27, 4/2/20, 3/31/2023, 3/14)
Kds86z
Member
RIV?
Risk Impact Value. One of many great things that came out of the Omega Project.
I’d definitely recommend reading the entire publication.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
N0mz
Member
I think this is his best work yet, explained some concepts I didn't know very well
The storm system that was responsible for this outbreak, particularly on the 14th, was one of the most dynamically impressive I've ever seen. This is also why it produced such extreme conditions on the dry side for fire wx/dust storms.
CheeselandSkies
Member
For sure. As intense as that outbreak was, I think we got lucky it didn't have even slightly more/quicker moisture available.
More moisture and you turn those EF3s into 4s and 4s into 5s (ignoring rating controversies/etc), perhaps with more of them too further north/south.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Agreed. I was watching the northern end for something similar to 3/31/23. However it became pretty clear that it was going to be too moisture-starved for anything other than strongly forced linear initiation right along the front that would also mostly be after dark, so I opted not to chase.
N0mz
Member
However you could say that a little more moisture would lead to over convection down the south end of the line
I think that was true for 3/15. However, on 3/14 with such subtle forcing around Mississippi and Southern Arkansas, more moisture would only have helped erode the cap further and help storms that were able to mature.
N0mz
Member
wasn't forcing a cold front (lol)? pretty strong even if it was a relatively weak cold front