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Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

Do you have a source on that Tim Marshall crawlspace rule? IMO it seems pretty stupid but I wonder if he has something to back it up
I emailed him a few days after the Marion tornado to ask whether that home warranted such a high rating, given it wasn’t built on a traditional concrete-slab foundation like most high-end EF4 DIs are. He replied that DoD-10 typically applies to homes on slab foundations, implying Marion’s home shouldn’t have been rated as DoD-10.
 
Even though the home is swept away and of typical construction, given it’s built on an elevated floor system, the max DoD that can be applied is 9 for homes swept off it. It has a weaker connection since the studs aren’t directly nailed to the sill plates, they’re nailed to the wall bottom plate that sits on the floor joist system. DoD-9 should’ve been applied instead, winds around 170 mph.
I guess my question is why is being nailed to the wall bottom plate different from being nailed to the sill plate? Forgive me if I'm missing something, as I'm not an expert on this, but isn't the point of failure still a wood wall of sorts coming off an anchor?
 
I emailed him a few days after the Marion tornado to ask whether that home warranted such a high rating, given it wasn’t built on a traditional concrete-slab foundation like most high-end EF4 DIs are. He replied that DoD-10 typically applies to homes on slab foundations, implying Marion’s home shouldn’t have been rated as DoD-10.
Huh, I assumed he worked on the Marion survey himself, given it was an awarded EF4 from one of the offices (Paducah) that I assume doesn't have the "authority" to issue their own violent ratings.
 
I know I sling insults at Tim Marshall a lot lmao. But in this specific instance it's best to stay objective because there's a lot of potential for good discourse here.
Credit where credit's due, he has been responsible for some great calls (Jarrell and Greensburg being my personal favorites). Didn't researchers at the NIST try downgrading Jarrell to F3, which was never picked up by the NWS? It's a fascinating read and actually had some decent points, although the main flaw was not factoring in contextuals from the tornado and focusing only on structural damage.
 
Credit where credit's due, he has been responsible for some great calls (Jarrell and Greensburg being my personal favorites). Didn't researchers at the NIST try downgrading Jarrell to F3, which was never picked up by the NWS?
I don't think he has as much of a negative impact as most think. Sure, he's made some decisions I vehemently disagree with, but other things are blamed on him that aren't really his fault. From what I gather, in Vilonia, he had the wool pulled over his eyes by John Robinson, while the infamous presentation that had the Goldsby photos was actually Jim LaDue, not Marshall.1751518505619.png
 
Huh, I assumed he worked on the Marion survey himself, given it was an awarded EF4 from one of the offices (Paducah) that I assume doesn't have the "authority" to issue their own violent ratings.

You're correct that more senior surveyors are required to approve certain offices going above EF3. Here’s the supporting document (section 3.1.2 starting on page 6).


However offices can get their own engineering consultants pre approved, or use other approved structural engineers outside of the Quick Response Survey Team, which Tim Marshall leads, and has become notorious for low-balling ratings. I believe most of the EF4s this year were assigned by engineers unassociated with the QRT.
 
I guess my question is why is being nailed to the wall bottom plate different from being nailed to the sill plate? Forgive me if I'm missing something, as I'm not an expert on this, but isn't the point of failure still a wood wall of sorts coming off an anchor?
Great question, and you’re right that in both cases, the studs are ultimately attached to both type of foundations the same way. The key difference lies in how the wind forces are transferred through the structure. When a home is built on a concrete slab, the wall bottom/sill plate is typically anchored directly to the slab using bolts or straps, creating a strong, direct load path that resists uplift and lateral forces more effectively. In contrast, homes with elevated floor systems have additional connection points. The sill plate is bolted to the foundation, but the floor joists are usually toe-nailed into that sill plate, and then the studs are nailed to the subfloor and/or header joists. That toe-nailed connection between joists and sill plate is significantly weaker under tension (uplift), and the multiple layers introduce more potential failure points. So while both involve similar stud to plate connections, the load path in slab-on-grade construction is much more robust, which is why those homes tend to withstand tornadic winds better.
 
I don't think he has as much of a negative impact as most think. Sure, he's made some decisions I vehemently disagree with, but other things are blamed on him that aren't really his fault. From what I gather, in Vilonia, he had the wool pulled over his eyes by John Robinson, while the infamous presentation that had the Goldsby photos was actually Jim LaDue, not Marshall.View attachment 44766
This photo was by Jim Ladue, the presentation was by Tim Marshall in partnership with NOAA and the "Warning Decision Training Devision" (WDTB, aka NWS meteorologist training).
 
I may be misinterpreting, so please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Tim Marshall saying toe-nailing is adequate and constitutes the maximum DOD for a clean subfloor here? I'm reading this slide and his response about Marion as possibly being contradictory.


IMG_2566.png
 
I may be misinterpreting, so please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Tim Marshall saying toe-nailing is adequate and constitutes the maximum DOD for a clean subfloor here? I'm reading this slide and his response about Marion as possibly being contradictory.


View attachment 44767
I mean it doesn't confirm that this is DOD 10 damage, just that its EXP construction. It still seems kind of illogical to basically make a DOD 10 impossible for a very common type of building. Just go LB DOD 10 at that point, no?
 
Ah, do you have a link to it? One of my buddies was around at the time and said it was LaDue

Best I can do at the current moment is the title page, but it does look like Ladue was a co author. Before I get scolded by @buckeye05 i will say this presentation likely faced lots of backlash from WFOs and probably didn't remain a training module for long (really can't say for sure though, it could've done some amount of damage to the rating culture). it's hosted on some third party websites now, and I can't find it anywhere in NOAAs current resources.

IMG_2567.png
 
I may be misinterpreting, so please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Tim Marshall saying toe-nailing is adequate and constitutes the maximum DOD for a clean subfloor here? I'm reading this slide and his response about Marion as possibly being contradictory.


View attachment 44767
You’re right that toe-nailing of the floor joists is considered an adequate connection and falls under the EXP classification. However, he clarified that DoD-10 is typically reserved for homes built on concrete slab foundations, not those constructed on crawlspaces or elevated floor systems. That suggests the maximum applicable DoD for Marion’s home, and others like it, would be 9. Am I overlooking something in the slide? From what I can tell, it just shows two graphics, one of a home on an elevated floor system, and one on a concrete slab with direct stud-to-sill plate connection.
 
You’re right that toe-nailing of the floor joists is considered an adequate connection and falls under the EXP classification. However, he clarified that DoD-10 is typically reserved for homes built on concrete slab foundations, not those constructed on crawlspaces or elevated floor systems. That suggests the maximum applicable DoD for Marion’s home, and others like it, would be 9. Am I overlooking something in the slide? From what I can tell, it just shows two graphics, one of a home on an elevated floor system, and one on a concrete slab with direct stud-to-sill plate connection.
Here's the slideshow its ripped from: https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/EF-scale/lesson2/presentation_html5.html (module 17)

A better screenshot:
Screenshot 2025-07-03 at 1.16.13 AM.png
 
I mean it doesn't confirm that this is DOD 10 damage, just that its EXP construction. It still seems kind of illogical to basically make a DOD 10 impossible for a very common type of building. Just go LB DOD 10 at that point, no?
While Tim stated that DoD-10 is typically reserved for homes on concrete slab foundations, I do think it should also apply to crawl space foundations, but only under certain conditions. For example, if the elevated floor system is completely torn from the foundation along with the home, like what we saw in Gary, South Dakota, then DoD-10 may be appropriate. But if the floor system remains intact and attached to the foundation, I agree that DoD-9 is the more appropriate ceiling.
 
While Tim stated that DoD-10 is typically reserved for homes on concrete slab foundations, I do think it should also apply to crawl space foundations, but only under certain conditions. For example, if the elevated floor system is completely torn from the foundation along with the home, like what we saw in Gary, South Dakota, then DoD-10 may be appropriate. But if the floor system remains intact and attached to the foundation, I agree that DoD-9 is the more appropriate ceiling.
I am glad to see you back. I am sorry if I was a real jerk to you last time.
 
Finally responding to the Severe Weather 2025 Gary tornado discussion in here.

That tornado was violent. The fact it's even a debate just shows how desensitized the weather community has become to the absolute extremes of tornado strength. Seriously, imagine you live in a different country and have never heard of tornadoes, but are very familiar with powerful Typhoons. You'd see the image of that truck and your jaw would hit the floor. Hurricanes and Typhoons don't do this type of wind damage. They never have and they never will. It requires exceptionally strong force to carry a truck over the length of four football fields and mangle it beyond comprehension. The 165 mph designation is very silly, and the classification of this tornado as "strong" instead of "violent" is misleading. However, the house was a slider, so whatever I guess!..

It'd be so great if we could just go back to tornado rating brackets with huge 40 mph ranges, and then categorize them using all the available evidence again. It's exhausting having these "5-10 mph up or down" engineering debates about tornadoes that are so clearly beyond that type of specificity (by their very nature).

Edit:

And before anyone mentions the vertical wind component. If 165 mph vertical winds could lift a truck off the ground, 165 mph straight line hurricane/typhoon winds would certainly shred large boats and roll them down city streets.
1751540309620.png
it only got a 70 mph rating however base on the next ef scale (unless it got changed) it should of been rated 165 mph
1751540382740.png

then again the vehicle di is the most poorly made out of all of them and the only one i seem to have major issues with it (why is there 3 DOD that is 110 mph???) (the original Fujita scale has vehicle thrown long distance as F4 damage)
 
While Tim stated that DoD-10 is typically reserved for homes on concrete slab foundations, I do think it should also apply to crawl space foundations, but only under certain conditions. For example, if the elevated floor system is completely torn from the foundation along with the home, like what we saw in Gary, South Dakota, then DoD-10 may be appropriate. But if the floor system remains intact and attached to the foundation, I agree that DoD-9 is the more appropriate ceiling.
just a heads up , DOD 10 in the new EF scale has been moved to DOD 13 (both base on greenfield survey and a other presentation)
Ga6H-xAWMAA0TrY.jpg
(im not sure what one of the DOD will be as we can see 2 out of 3 new DOD)
 
Exactly. This is one of the rare cases where a tornado may have been overestimated. The home in Marion, Illinois sat either on pier and beam foundation or poured concrete wall foundation (likely the latter), where the sill plates were likely properly anchored to the perimeter foundation walls. The elevated floor system consisted of floor joists toe-nailed into the sill plates (evidenced by nails being ripped out of the subflooring, as well as wall bottom plates removed), with wall bottom plates straight-nailed into either the header or floor joists depending on their position on the floor system.

Although the home was swept from the floor system, that system itself remained intact and in place. The main issue with the survey was the degree of damage (DoD) applied. According to engineer and meteorologist Tim Marshall, homes swept from crawlspace or CMU foundations should be assigned a DoD-9, not a DoD-10. DoD-10 is typically reserved for slab-on-grade homes only. If we apply DoD-9 in this case, considering the construction and nearby tree damage, estimated winds around 170 mph are more appropriate.

A great comparison is the EF4 tornado in Fifty-Six, Arkansas on March 14th. A similar home built on a crawlspace was swept from its elevated floor system and properly rated as DoD-9, EF4 with 170 mph winds. For further reference, images 1 and 2 are from Marion, Illinois and images 3 and 4 are from Fifty-Six, Arkansas.

View attachment 44763
View attachment 44762
View attachment 44761
View attachment 44764
The reason I think the tornado *may* not have been overestimated is because, per the DAT itself (not me), contextual damage around the house was solid:

"Two story home built in 2003 at 12928 Kyler Court completely swept away with slab cleared and debris scattered into wooded area behind the home. Trees behind the homes were reduced to stubbs. Residents were not home at the time the tornado struck. Analysis by NWS damage surveyors and structural engineering experts showed that everything above the floor diaphragm of the home was removed. The studs were toe-nailed, and there was evidence of partially engineered wood being removed. The extreme tree stubbing combined with the typical construction methods of the home support an estimated peak wind speed rating of 190 mph."

So, in this case, they're relying both on context and reasonably, though not especially, good construction.

I think high end EF4 is a fine call here.
 
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