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Significant Tornado Events

To add to this point. We've had three outbreaks in the last 5 years with basically the same amount of tornadoes in a 24 hour period as the 1974 super outbreak. I couldn't find any clear criteria for what constitutes a "super outbreak", so I'm not sure why 2023 and 2020 aren't classified as such. I hesitate to attribute the high tornado counts in the recent outbreaks to modern technology making tornadoes easier to detect because of how heavily studied and surveyed the 1974 super outbreak was.

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Because those three outbreaks are still far behind the intensity of the 1974 and 2011 Super Outbreaks. Also even with being well surveyed for it's time Fujita still missed that the Monticello F4 was 3 different tornadoes at first. So weak tornadoes could easily be missed.
 
Responding to something @CheeselandSkies mentioned in the anniversaries thread...
I treat all >100-mile path lengths as suspect now
No need for that. Many, many of them were indeed families. Albion 1990 (which the comment was in reference to) was, Lawrence 1990 was, Indiana 2002 was, Yazoo City 2010 and Hackleburg 2011 were. Even Holly Springs 2015 is suspect, and Bihucourt 2022 (formerly Europe's longest tracked tornado) was officially split up in the ESWD based on chaser testimonies. But there are a few that really did break the mark.

Tri-State broke the 100 mile mark, and IMO likely exceeded 200 miles. Hazlehurst 1969 is a possibility. Both the Delhi and Cary tornadoes in 1971 broke 100 although the Cary one was also a family, just with a legit 114 miler in it. Guin 1974 probably broke 100. More recently, Atkins/Clinton 2008 was confirmed via aerial survey, Hackleburg, Cordova and Enterprise all broke 100 on 4/27/11 (Enterprise got up to 130!), the Mayfield tornado is very well confirmed, and I trust that Little Rock has the Franklin/Larkin tornado's path length right.
 
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To add to this point. We've had three outbreaks in the last 5 years with basically the same amount of tornadoes in a 24 hour period as the 1974 super outbreak. I couldn't find any clear criteria for what constitutes a "super outbreak", so I'm not sure why 2023 and 2020 aren't classified as such. I hesitate to attribute the high tornado counts in the recent outbreaks to modern technology making tornadoes easier to detect because of how heavily studied and surveyed the 1974 super outbreak was.
I think what differentiates a normal high tornado outbreak from a Super Outbreak is both number of violent tornadoes and number of E/F5s. Both 1974 and 2011 had plenty of each, whereas none of the 3 others listed had an EF5 (officially - I am 100% convinced Bassfield 2020 reached EF5 intensity). The E/F5 one is also the one Palm Sunday 1965 fails, as there are no officially rated F5s for the entire outbreak despite at least 17 violent tornadoes and the presence of slam-dunk, verifiable F5 damage on at least three to five (or more!) tornadoes.
 
I think what differentiates a normal high tornado outbreak from a Super Outbreak is both number of violent tornadoes and number of E/F5s. Both 1974 and 2011 had plenty of each, whereas none of the 3 others listed had an EF5 (officially - I am 100% convinced Bassfield 2020 reached EF5 intensity). The E/F5 one is also the one Palm Sunday 1965 fails, as there are no officially rated F5s for the entire outbreak despite at least 17 violent tornadoes and the presence of slam-dunk, verifiable F5 damage on at least three to five (or more!) tornadoes.
Yeah, Palm Sunday 1965 was absolutely a super outbreak, it just isn't called as much due to the strange conservatism of the ratings for that outbreak in particular. Given the time period, it's especially head-scratching to me that the most violent tornadoes not only didn't receive F5 ratings, but even had a couple that were downgraded for whatever reason from F5 to F4 and even some IIRC that were from F4 to F3. It was very much an 4/27/11 repeat for Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin instead of the deep south (I suppose you could say that 4/27/11 was a 4/11/65 repeat for the south, however). The biggest reason why there were less overall tornadoes in the 1965 outbreak is simply because there's no way we could have known about weaker tornadoes touching down in 1965, especially in the middle of nowhere, radar was in its absolute infancy and we understood a lot less about how tornadoes worked back then.

If the 3/31/23 outbreak had the bulk of its activity occur further to the east and had more of the tornadoes hit populated areas, it probably still wouldn't have been able to achieve a "super outbreak" status, but it would have definitely at least come very close. The Keota tornado and its predecessor, Robinson-Sullivan, and a couple of the lower-rated tornadoes that left ground scouring in open fields but hit nothing else were probably stronger than the ratings they received. Keota had some ridiculous motion and ground scouring, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached EF5 intensity at all. Robinson-Sullivan has been discussed quite extensively on this forum as being deserving of an EF4 rating with the damage it inflicted (I haven't seen the damage myself, so I can't confirm this claim), and there were a handful of tornadoes rated low because they didn't hit anything, but they did leave behind impressive ground swirls and whatnot. Also, the predecessor to Keota was a monster wedge that had ridiculous motion in it too, rated EF3 but likely was stronger at its peak.

There's no doubt that 4/27/11, 4/11/65, and 4/3/74 definitely contained more violent tornadoes than 3/31/23, even when considering the fact that a lot of the 3/31/23 tornadoes hit open fields, so it really just comes down to that. The next super outbreak that occurs is going to be something that becomes evident as it unfolds. The 2023 outbreak, while being extremely impressive in its own right, never struck me as being a potential super outbreak, even while it was occurring. The tornadoes that day only had "the look" in the northern mode, which wasn't a large enough area spacially to verify as a super outbreak by itself, and the southern mode's strongest tornado was the Little Rock EF3 or Wynne EF3 which were both rated very well. On the other hand, the tornadoes from 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 absolutely pretty much all had "the look" to them, regardless of where you were located in the HIGH risk or even in some of the MOD risk. The Philadelphia EF5 being the first tornado of 4/27/11 super outbreak portion was a horrifying indicator of what was to come.

EDIT: When I say "the look" I mean of a tornado being potentially capable of high-end damage, I'm not referring to "the look" of EF5 damage, that's something else. When I say that, I'm simply referring to the presence of horizontal vortices, high rotational velocity, tight velocity couplets that appear quickly after storm formation, and rapid condensing of the funnel that you only typically see in tornadoes on high end days. If you have watched or seen videos of tornadoes on 4/27/11 or 4/3/74, it becomes apparent on what I mean.

Large spacial area affected that contains a high-end parameter space + tornadoes having "the look" throughout the event + discrete/semi-discrete storm mode that maintains itself, with at least 4-5 supercells producing violent, long tracked tornadoes = super outbreak.
 
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but even had a couple that were downgraded for whatever reason from F5 to F4 and even some IIRC that were from F4 to F3.
The only post-facto downgrade for that outbreak was Sunnyside, which was one of the slam-dunk verifiable F5 damage producers. Everything else just seems to have been horrendous ratings from the start. There were F4 candidates rated F1 for god's sake!
 
... On the other hand, the tornadoes from 4/3/74 and 4/27/11 absolutely pretty much all had "the look" to them, regardless of where you were located in the HIGH risk or even in some of the MOD risk. The Philadelphia EF5 being the first tornado of 4/27/11 super outbreak portion was a horrifying indicator of what was to come.

EDIT: When I say "the look" I mean of a tornado being potentially capable of high-end damage, I'm not referring to "the look" of EF5 damage, that's something else. When I say that, I'm simply referring to the presence of horizontal vortices, high rotational velocity, tight velocity couplets that appear quickly after storm formation, and rapid condensing of the funnel that you only typically see in tornadoes on high end days. If you have watched or seen videos of tornadoes on 4/27/11 or 4/3/74, it becomes apparent on what I mean.

Large spacial area affected that contains a high-end parameter space + tornadoes having "the look" throughout the event + discrete/semi-discrete storm mode that maintains itself, with at least 4-5 supercells producing violent, long tracked tornadoes = super outbreak.

I know what you mean. Philadelphia wasn't broadcast in real time (mobile internet wasn't nearly as well developed in 2011 as it is now, especially in the rural South) but when I first saw the 33/40 skycam footage of Cullman I noticed similarities in its behavior to descriptions and/or footage of previous days that had produced multiple violent tornadoes, such as 4/11/65, 4/3/74, 5/31/85 and 6/2/90.

...and Keota. Man, the speed at which that thing was spinning after it reorganized under the big collar cloud was mind-boggling. The storm was moving so fast that chasers who were on it from the start of the first wedge basically had no hope of catching up in time for the cycle, but looking back at their videos the two were such visual clones throughout their life cycle it was uncanny. That one had also started as a slender, classic white cone before reorganizing/expanding into a dust-filled stovepipe and then wedge underneath a giant, ominous collar cloud.


033123KeotaIATornado.00_03_17_21.Still016.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year02.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year04.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year05.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year09.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year11.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year12.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year15.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year16.jpg033123KeotaIATornado1Year18.jpg

...and the way that cell evolved was almost perfect from the perspective of minimizing impact. It essentially fit its entire phase of high-end tornado production in the space between Ottumwa and Iowa City, and the tornadoes all threaded the needle between the towns like Hedrick, Martinsburg, Farson, Ollie, Harper and Keota.
 
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3/2/2012 Crittenden-Piner, Kentucky EF4 damage
I-75/Old Lexington Pike
Equal or stronger than Henryville in my opinion, a lot of violent damage in this area, 60mph forward speed.
 

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3/2/2012 Crittenden-Piner, Kentucky EF4 damage
I-75/Old Lexington Pike
Equal or stronger than Henryville in my opinion, a lot of violent damage in this area, 60mph forward speed.
To be honest, I'm genuinely unsure. I remember once upon a time this was considered an EF5 candidate before that shifted to Henryville.....but I am also unsure if Henryville is a valid EF5 candidate.

So, once more, I must ping the most notable TW experts on disputed ratings. @TH2002, @buckeye05, what say you re: Henryville and Crittenden being EF5 candidates?

(And, as a side note, what are your opinions on Girard 2003?)
 
To be honest, I'm genuinely unsure. I remember once upon a time this was considered an EF5 candidate before that shifted to Henryville.....but I am also unsure if Henryville is a valid EF5 candidate.

So, once more, I must ping the most notable TW experts on disputed ratings. @TH2002, @buckeye05, what say you re: Henryville and Crittenden being EF5 candidates?

(And, as a side note, what are your opinions on Girard 2003?)
According to an NWS Louisville surveyor, this was the extent of the "EF5 candidate" home that was brought up in 2022.

"I remember that one house in Chelsea, That's the strongest damage I have ever seen. It was a well built house, very well built house, and somehow the tornado, got under the foundation enough with the suction vortices and picked the thing up and slid it 26 yards and turned it about 60°, an entire house. The sides of that house, looked like it had been attacked by machine gunners"

The homeowner also had a pickup truck that he never found and a backhoe was moved into the basement of the home.

So take that however you want to take it, doesn't scream EF5 to me at all personally
 
To be honest, I'm genuinely unsure. I remember once upon a time this was considered an EF5 candidate before that shifted to Henryville.....but I am also unsure if Henryville is a valid EF5 candidate.

So, once more, I must ping the most notable TW experts on disputed ratings. @TH2002, @buckeye05, what say you re: Henryville and Crittenden being EF5 candidates?

(And, as a side note, what are your opinions on Girard 2003?)
Henryville, no, there was simply no damage that met the EF5 criteria. Also that quote from surveyor who was apparently extremely impressed with what sounds like a slider house is….perplexing.

However, when it comes to Crittenden, that one was given a wind speed estimate of 175 MPH, and that’s a bit too low given the contextual evidence that occurred and how cleanly swept the homes were. The problem is that I’ve yet to see close-up, high-quality photos of the perimeters of the house foundations, which would allow me to see the quality and degree of anchoring. Because of that, I can’t be too confident about my stance on that one. However, with that said and based on what I have seen, my gut says the damage wasn’t quite extreme enough to bring it to the very very top of the EF scale, but high-end EF4 would be more appropriate than 175 MPH. They definitely played it a little too conservative. In fact, I consider Crittenden to be the second most violent ILN office area tornado to occur during my lifetime (with Van Wert 2002 taking the #1 spot).
 
To be honest, I'm genuinely unsure. I remember once upon a time this was considered an EF5 candidate before that shifted to Henryville.....but I am also unsure if Henryville is a valid EF5 candidate.

So, once more, I must ping the most notable TW experts on disputed ratings. @TH2002, @buckeye05, what say you re: Henryville and Crittenden being EF5 candidates?

(And, as a side note, what are your opinions on Girard 2003?)
Crittenden: Didn't think it was until I saw one of the photos posted above. Found the original source of photo #6 in @Union's post, and it confirms what I suspected:
"This photo captures what was left of the McCardle's brick home. The tornado that ripped through Crittenden, Kentucky, was so powerful that it even lifted out a portion of the foundation walls."
So, yeah... this thing snapped the poured concrete foundation of a well-built home. Geez...
Here's a closer view of the snapped foundation:
eae544ad-91c5-e019-777a8a96b31f6ee5.jpg

The debarking and vehicle mangling in the other photos is definitely violent but not quite slam-dunk EF5 imo, but overall it comes really close...
At the very least, the official windspeed estimate of 175MPH is way too low.

Girard: I have multiple photos from that event. None of them show anything that 100% screams EF5, but it's certainly possible it at least reached that intensity. Here are a few from my collection:
franklintornadodamage-aerial-jpg.9133

franklintornadodamage-chassis-jpg.9136

franklintornadodamage-debarking-jpg.9141


Some more that I don't think have been posted before:
6452a1475afed.image.jpg

1093504-tornado-damage-in-franklin-kansas.jpg

1093645-tornado-damages-in-franklin-kansas.jpg

1093688-tornado-damage-in-franklin-kansas.jpg


According to an NWS Louisville surveyor, this was the extent of the "EF5 candidate" home that was brought up in 2022.

"I remember that one house in Chelsea, That's the strongest damage I have ever seen. It was a well built house, very well built house, and somehow the tornado, got under the foundation enough with the suction vortices and picked the thing up and slid it 26 yards and turned it about 60°, an entire house. The sides of that house, looked like it had been attacked by machine gunners"

The homeowner also had a pickup truck that he never found and a backhoe was moved into the basement of the home.

So take that however you want to take it, doesn't scream EF5 to me at all personally
re: Henryville, I'm not 100% sure which exact home is considered the "plausible EF5" one. Three people died in a home that was swept away and had its debris blown downwind, but I'm not sure if that's the one the surveyors singled out or not.
Although, it is definite that the "plausible EF5" home had a backhoe thrown into its basement, which arguably could be considered collateral damage and a valid reason for a downgrade.
So, to answer @Lake Martin EF4's question about whether Henryville is an EF5 candidate - I guess it's possible, but I doubt it. Like Franklin, I've never seen anything that is 100% EF5 worthy based on damage photos.
 
Henryville, no, there was simply no damage that met the EF5 criteria. Also that quote from surveyor who was apparently extremely impressed with what sounds like a slider house is….perplexing.

However, when it comes to Crittenden, that one was given a wind speed estimate of 175 MPH, and that’s a bit too low given the contextual evidence that occurred and how cleanly swept the homes were. The problem is that I’ve yet to see close-up, high-quality photos of the perimeters of the house foundations, which would allow me to see the quality and degree of anchoring. Because of that, I can’t be too confident about my stance on that one. However, with that said and based on what I have seen, my gut says the damage wasn’t quite extreme enough to bring it to the very very top of the EF scale, but high-end EF4 would be more appropriate than 175 MPH. They definitely played it a little too conservative. In fact, I consider Crittenden to be the second most violent ILN office area tornado to occur during my lifetime (with Van Wert 2002 taking the #1 spot).
What were the most violent instances of damage and destruction with the Van Wert tornado?
 
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Crittenden: Didn't think it was until I saw one of the photos posted above. Found the original source of photo #6 in @Union's post, and it confirms what I suspected:
"This photo captures what was left of the McCardle's brick home. The tornado that ripped through Crittenden, Kentucky, was so powerful that it even lifted out a portion of the foundation walls."
So, yeah... this thing snapped the poured concrete foundation of a well-built home. Geez...
Here's a closer view of the snapped foundation:
So, the consensus:

Crittenden is a definite EF5 contender, but the contextuals nudge it down to a borderline case. 175 was in any event far too low
Franklin may have been F5 but not enough evidence to confirm one way or the other
Henryville is a possible EF5 contender, but doubtable. Far less of a case than Crittenden, falls into the same territory as Franklin

Thanks for your input. Looks like my original thought (that Crittenden was stronger than Henryville) was correct after all.

EDIT: Hijacking this post because I forgot to get a Tornado Anniversaries post out before midnight. 35 years.of Stratton-McCook.
 
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Some pretty remarkable instances of vehicle damage from the candle factory area in Mayfield. You can also see the tornado caused quite a bit of grass scouring around this area. Really makes you wonder if the tornado may have actually hit a brief instance of EF5 intensity in this area.
 
So, the consensus:

Crittenden is a definite EF5 contender, but the contextuals nudge it down to a borderline case. 175 was in any event far too low
Franklin may have been F5 but not enough evidence to confirm one way or the other
Henryville is a possible EF5 contender, but doubtable. Far less of a case than Crittenden, falls into the same territory as Franklin

Thanks for your input. Looks like my original thought (that Crittenden was stronger than Henryville) was correct after all.
I wouldn't say Crittenden is an EF5 contender for a rating (the same for Henryville) the peak rated houses along Old Lexington Pike weren't anything to write home about quality wise, but I think it's reverse to what you said, it's the contextuals that bump it up for me, at least by intensity standards because there's no doubt in my mind that Crittenden would never get rated above like 180 structurally. Removal of (part of) an external concrete wall is interesting but can't technically get rated unfortunately.
 
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Some pretty remarkable instances of vehicle damage from the candle factory area in Mayfield. You can also see the tornado caused quite a bit of grass scouring around this area. Really makes you wonder if the tornado may have actually hit a brief instance of EF5 intensity in this area.
The Candle Factory vehicle damage is some of the worst I've seen from a tornado after Moore 2013 but it's not really brought up when talking about Mayfield and the damage, and I think it's definitely an area of EF5 intensity

It's not even just a pick and choose area either, every single vehicle in the parking lot of the factory was totaled and a lot of them were messed up pretty bad bodily wise.
 

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The Candle Factory vehicle damage is some of the worst I've seen from a tornado after Moore 2013 but it's not really brought up when talking about Mayfield and the damage, and I think it's definitely an area of EF5 intensity

It's not even just a pick and choose area either, every single vehicle in the parking lot of the factory was totaled and a lot of them were messed up pretty bad bodily wise. area reminds me a lot of the Parsons Plant from Roanoke, IL 2004, but less intense, the vehicle damage from that area was incredibly extreme
And the area reminds me a lot of the Parsons Plant from Roanoke, IL 2004, but less intense, the vehicle damage from that area was incredibly extreme.
 

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So, the consensus:

Crittenden is a definite EF5 contender, but the contextuals nudge it down to a borderline case. 175 was in any event far too low
Franklin may have been F5 but not enough evidence to confirm one way or the other
Henryville is a possible EF5 contender, but doubtable. Far less of a case than Crittenden, falls into the same territory as Franklin

Thanks for your input. Looks like my original thought (that Crittenden was stronger than Henryville) was correct after all.
No not a definite EF5 contender, but as mentioned, 175 MPH is way too low. The poured concrete basement wall being broken is something I didn’t know about until now, and adds to the already impressive contextual damage.
 
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