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Severe Weather 2025

N0mz said:
Just checked the 00z gfs run, and I 100% agree with you. Kind of odd location, but that dryline is starting to sharpen up, and shear vectors, while not perfectly angled like you get in an OK setup, are still pretty solid. The LLJ is quite powerful as well around the 18z mark. I clocked the 500mb jet translation speed at around 38 knots, which isn't as high end like we see in April setups, is still quick enough to produce violent tornados.
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Sorry, I assumed it was a dryline event. This looks like a cold front event to me, which basically guarantees there will be ample forcing, but now makes me question storm mode. As I said, there's definitely shear, but I'm not sure if it's gonna be enough. Probably gonna wait till its in short range model forecasts to dig deeper.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I'm really sold on the Tuesday threat for significant severe weather. It's not the sharpest dryline we've ever seen, but it does have some oomph to it and travels a long distance in a short amount of time.

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Look at that Theta-E (potential for instability) heading into Tuesday evening. GFS is more aggressive than the Euro in the plains, but the Euro expects more instability further North.
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And the temperature gradient is the most drastic of all. The Euro is really trying to sell the idea of the Northern threat up to Iowa and Wisconsin. But look at that sharp 30 degree gradient in Kansas with the GFS! Wowza!
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The Euro is starting to think a nice little shortwave trough is possible too. The temperature gradient will cause plenty of forcing and speed sheer, so if the jet stream can add a little directional sheer to the picture we're sure to have strong rotating updrafts.
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I have a feeling if CAPE ends up trending in a more plentiful direction, the SPC will ramp up the risk areas and language significantly. It's still some nasty looking convection regardless, so I expect these storms to do a lot with very little.
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SPC did expand the Tuesday outlook quite a bit with this morning's issuance, a bit more in line with my thinking over the past few days compared to their previous further west highlight. There are still some issues with widespread convection throughout the warm sector (that Pacific tropical storm is more of a hindrance than a help as regards severe potential) and to be sold on a higher-end event I'd like to see a tighter surface low as opposed to the kind of subtle frontal wave that we're seeing. As SPC has alluded to in the text, localized pockets of greater severe potential will be dependent upon if/where heating can occur ahead of that frontal wave.
 
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KakashiHatake2000 said:
Hey everyone did yall hear about the auroras coming up early next week I think it’s supposed to be a g4 I hope we all can see it despite the wildfire smoke I shared posts from weather track us on the solar flares yesterday but I’m patiently waiting for it to get approved
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Very smoky here today. We'll see how fast it clears out or plans on sticking around for awhile
 
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