• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2025

1748112139012.png

This outflow boundary is expected to move north today, although
the HRRR may be too aggressive with how far north it moves given
the cloudiness that persists north of the boundary. But clouds are
expected to erode late this morning and early this afternoon
warming the cool side of the boundary mixing out the outflow
airmass, so the boundary should lift north somewhat. We will be
watching this boundary for a focus of storm development later this
afternoon, so where this sets up will be a key to where storms are
most likely to form. Instability will be quite high this afternoon
with CAPE predicted to be over 4000 J/kg, so severe weather is
likely with any storms that form. There will also be a somewhat
higher tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
on the boundary, especially if winds remain backed (easterly or
southeasterly) on the cool side of the boundary. This area will
likely include central Oklahoma.
 
Jbop said:
View attachment 43159

This outflow boundary is expected to move north today, although
the HRRR may be too aggressive with how far north it moves given
the cloudiness that persists north of the boundary. But clouds are
expected to erode late this morning and early this afternoon
warming the cool side of the boundary mixing out the outflow
airmass, so the boundary should lift north somewhat. We will be
watching this boundary for a focus of storm development later this
afternoon, so where this sets up will be a key to where storms are
most likely to form. Instability will be quite high this afternoon
with CAPE predicted to be over 4000 J/kg, so severe weather is
likely with any storms that form. There will also be a somewhat
higher tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
on the boundary, especially if winds remain backed (easterly or
southeasterly) on the cool side of the boundary. This area will
likely include central Oklahoma.
Click to expand...
I’d be surprised if they didn’t issue a hatched.
 
They aren't going to issue a hatched, there's three hours left until storm initiation. Today would have been a very good day to issue a 5% hatched, but it can only coincide with 10% tornado risks for outlooks as of now. Today is the very definition of things needing to go right for nasty stuff to happen, and it could be very nasty if it does.
 
slenker said:
They aren't going to issue a hatched, there's three hours left until storm initiation. Today would have been a very good day to issue a 5% hatched, but it can only coincide with 10% tornado risks for outlooks as of now. Today is the very definition of things needing to go right for nasty stuff to happen, and it could be very nasty if it does.
Click to expand...
I'm surprised there was no hatched after seeing mentions for the potential of intense and EF3 + tornadoes
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top