Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Jbop]

Messaging however is more concerning. I think that the threat is aligned with the FWD offices graphic.

Possible. I think David hit it on the nail when he said today for North/Central TX will be more of a "wait and see"

 

[US_Highway15]

David Payne is actually less impressed about the tornado threat today than yesterday:

 

[Maxis_s]

"However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk."
From the new D1 outlook, it looks like a high risk was considered

 

[Ozonelayer]

"However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk."
From the new D1 outlook, it looks like a high risk was considered

Dang, didn't excpect that.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

"However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk."
From the new D1 outlook, it looks like a high risk was considered

I would've honestly been stunned if they went HIGH with this outlook, because the question to me still remains to be storm mode and how long the supercells stay discrete before they gel into a line. If there was a chance for long-track supercells then I would've supported a HIGH risk upgrade.

 

[Kds86z]

I would've honestly been stunned if they went HIGH with this outlook, because the question to me still remains to be storm mode and how long the supercells stay discrete before they gel into a line. If there was a chance for long-track supercells then I would've supported a HIGH risk upgrade.

Yeah it’s not happening. Way too complicated and messy.

 

[Maxis_s]

Any reports of injuries or fatalities out of Plevna? From what I'm seeing there may not even be any injuries which is a miracle.

 

[Muwx]

"However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk."
From the new D1 outlook, it looks like a high risk was considered

I don't really read that as a high risk was considered. I think its more so way we have such a big moderate risk.

 

[OH-IOan]

Any reports of injuries or fatalities out of Plevna? From what I'm seeing there may not even be any injuries which is a miracle.

Apparently most residents sheltered in a well-built church (thank god!) but I think there's been some pretty bad damage there.

 

[Kds86z]

I don't really read that as a high risk was considered. I think its more so way we have such a big moderate risk.

Yeah honestly, the same here.

 

[lake.effect]

Yeah it’s not happening. Way too complicated and messy.

The main storms haven't even initiated yet...

 

[Kds86z]

@AJS

 

[AJS]

@AJS

The image won’t load.

 

[Kds86z]

The main storms haven't even initiated yet...

So?.. has nothing to do with a high risk being issued lol.

 

[AJS]

The image won’t load.

Send it in a DM if you’d like!

 

[Kds86z]

Send it in a DM if you’d like!

Here..

 

[Jbop]

From Reed

TORNADO OUTBREAK IMMINENT central into eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas into western Missouri this afternoon and evening!
Supercells are already erupting across central into eastern Oklahoma and will pack a threat of all hazards including strong-to-violent tornadoes.
Stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings in this risk area!

 

[Kds86z]

The main storms haven't even initiated yet...

I meant the high risk isn’t happening, not that tornados aren’t.

 

[AJS]

Here..

Awful damage. What’s crazy is that’s probably not the worst damage caused so far.