Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Kds86z]

FWD latest graphic update


View attachment 42524

“Higher threat higher than last several days”

 

[Jbop]

Local DFW met sees the highest storm coverage further north of DFW (Red river)

https://x.com/wfaaweather
Pete Delkus
https://x.com/wfaaweather
@wfaaweather


WFAA Weather Alert Day today between 4pm to 8pm. Strong storms are expected this afternoon. The highest coverage of storms will be near the Red River. Up to golf ball size hail, 60-70 mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado are the main threats. #wfaaweather

 

[Jbop]

“Higher threat higher than last several days”

DFW is in the 10% hatched compared to the resent 5%

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

I think that MDT might be expanded a touch southwards to include Collin County.

 

[Kds86z]

The latest.

 

[Kds86z]

SWO from KWNS

New day1.

 

[Kds86z]

So this setup is interesting because you have a tornado setup early in Eastern OK etc but then later a dryline tornado setup from KS to TX.

 

[AJS]

So far, not many reports coming out of the Greensburg supercell area. Could be a really good thing if there’s no damage or a really bad thing if there’s catastrophic damage to farmsteads and houses out in the open.

 

[Kds86z]

So far, not many reports coming out of the Greensburg supercell area. Could be a really good thing if there’s no damage or a really bad thing if there’s catastrophic damage to farmsteads and houses out in the open.

Yeah it’s so rural. I am convinced at least some farmsteads and such got slabbed

 

[Jbop]

I think that MDT might be expanded a touch southwards to include Collin County.

It's possible with the latest graphic from FWD

 

[Schoeppeya]

Just insanely rich moisture today with mid 70's dews across Ok.

 

[Kds86z]

It's possible with the latest graphic from FWD

 

[AJS]

Yeah it’s so rural. I am convinced at least some farmsteads and such got slabbed

I compared the track of the tornado to where it may have gone on maps and it looked to have crossed some areas with farmsteads unfortunately.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Storm mode seems like the biggest issue today (I'm sensing a theme this year.) With that said, if storms can be discrete then we may be in for some more strong to intense tornadoes, especially across eastern OK. ML CAPE is already in excess of 3,000 J/kg across central OK and this looks to only get more impressive as the day goes on and it translates further east.

Something to watch for is storms across extreme eastern OK and west-central AR where the Arkansas River Valley sits. A while back there was some research done in this area that showed low-level shear tends to get enhanced due to winds favoring coming more out of the east and running up the river valley. Local mets used to call it the "freaky east wind."

That freaky east wind could have helped produce the Spiro, OK tornado of 3/26/1976. It is difficult to say without having seen in-depth analysis.

 

[Ozonelayer]

We have some convection near the OKC metro area.

 

[OH-IOan]

I compared the track of the tornado to where it may have gone on maps and it looked to have crossed some areas with farmsteads unfortunately.

I'd say this is that huge Bingham tornado if had tracked over more populated areas. Hopefully no farms were directly hit, but that thing was extremely intense.

 

[Jbop]

Doesn't look like much as changed in the latest update for the DFW area.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Doesn't look like much as changed in the latest update for the DFW area.

Messaging however is more concerning. I think that the threat is aligned with the FWD offices graphic.

 

[AJS]

Dang, they expanded the moderate quite a bit into Missouri.