Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Ozonelayer]

Also, I think there is a TDS on the Mountain View storm.

 

[ColdFront]

We are in nowcast mode, but per 17z HRRR, western KY looks to be in the bullseye later.

 

[OH-IOan]

CC drop aligns with couplet. May have an OTG nearing Steelville, MO.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We are in nowcast mode, but per 17z HRRR, western KY looks to be in the bullseye later.

Have you decided to chase?

 

[OhOkayThen]

We are in nowcast mode, but per 17z HRRR, western KY looks to be in the bullseye later.

Yeah has the current cells becoming 2 dominant, discrete cells once in Western Ky. That's an ugly run.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 41808
CC drop aligns with couplet. May have an OTG nearing Steelville, MO.

I think that's CC clutter from the hail core if I'm not mistaken.

 

[OH-IOan]

I think that's CC clutter from the hail core if I'm not mistaken.

Yea, I noticed right after posting that it took on more of a rectangle shape (still in the couplet area, though, although the radar hole sucks). I assume TDS/Hail confusion like this today may be a bit of a problem.

 

[Atlantic]

6 TOR warnings now in Missouri!

 

[ColdFront]

Have you decided to chase?

I’m going to stay around Central KY. It all depends on if anything starts going up deep in the warm sector and before dark. Not about to head to western KY and try a night chase out there lol

 

[Atlantic]

TOR warning in Washington County, PA:

 

[OhOkayThen]

Looks like the 2 TOR cells NW of Poplar Bluff are trying to merge. With a lot of room to work with if successful.

 

[Tennie]

Reed Timmer just got blasted by a dry microburst.

 

[warneagle]

Looks like we're getting in on the action today too.

 

[ColdFront]

That CIN/subsidence from the earlier line has moved off to the northeast. Those cells East of Bowling Green are completely isolated on what seems to be some sort of confluence band, and about to move right into a sweet pocket of 300+ ESRH.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Reed Timmer just got blasted by a dry microburst.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

I think the DFW area needs to be under an ENH risk for tornadoes today.

Do you mean tommorow?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Dang. MO cells moving at 60 MPH per warning text. Between that and the terrain there, not sorry I'm not chasing this.

 

[cincywx]

3pm ET observations show ideal T/DP spreads east of the two SE MO cells. The southernmost of the two appears to be growing into the more dominant cell, and it could end up being the long tracker given the environment in front of it. That said, I wonder if the dip in 0-1km shear near the MO/TN/KY border will have any impact on the maturing updraft.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning near Van Buren MO is worth watching.

The one @cincywx mentions above lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

He is...the most interesting storm chaser in the world.