Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Tennie]

People are already starting to park underneath overpasses:



*Facepalms from the cringe*

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

that could be trying to plant a gnarly tor in the near future

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The radar clutter is extremely frustrating in MO. That southern most cell has a pretty hefty BWER. That one could produce in the near term.

 

[Jbop]

Do you mean tommorow?

As of right now FWD isn't seeing it.



--Saturday and Saturday Night--

The aforementioned stalled boundary will once again become the
focus of attention tomorrow. The main difference will be the added
source of lift as a short-wave moves overhead late in the morning
to early afternoon hours.

Similar to today, forecast thermodynamic profiles once again
drive instability above 4500 J/kg within a strongly sheared
effective inflow layer. The stalled boundary will continue to be
the surface feature for thunderstorms to initiate. With the added
forcing for ascent due to the shortwave, storm mode will initially
be supercellular in nature. With upscale growth, supercells will
become clusters of storms with a migration from large hail to
damaging winds as the main threats. There will be slightly more
low-level shear tomorrow, however, the overall tornado potential
will continue to remain low.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[OH-IOan]

People are already starting to park underneath overpasses:

View attachment 41818

*Facepalms from the cringe*

Has Moore or the Twisters movie not taught anybody anything? I get most of the public doesn’t know about the Moore overpass fatalities (that’s more of a weather enthusiast thing), but Twisters had to have been seen by a ton of people.

 

[TheSuckZone]

People are already starting to park underneath overpasses:

View attachment 41818

*Facepalms from the cringe*

Need to put cameras under those and start writing people tickets

 

[andyhb]

Veered surface winds remain the problem re: tornado potential here. Not sure if/how much that will change going forward.

 

[Jbop]

He is...the most interesting storm chaser in the world.


View attachment 41817

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

looking better considering the radar hole present

 

[Brice W]

@Atlantic, can’t do a whole lot since I’m at work but.

 

[Atlantic]

@Atlantic, can’t do a whole lot since I’m at work but.
View attachment 41821

I saw the Severe Thunderstorm Warning on The Weather Channel.

Here we go again....

 

[Atlantic]

@Brice W Yeah

 

[Atlantic]

@Atlantic, can’t do a whole lot since I’m at work but.
View attachment 41821

I don't typically refer to TWC to find warnings, but that's where I first became aware of this warning.

 

[cincywx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

..SUMMARY

A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG,
POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING
AS STORMS GROW INTO LARGER CLUSTERS.

..20Z UPDATE

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (UP TO
3-4 IN). THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK. THE AREA AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS CONTINUING TO WARM
AND DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY, WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF
WHICH MAY BE INTENSE AND LONG-TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. SEE
MCD#817 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SHORT TERM RISK.

ELSEWHERE, A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN US FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHICH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. SEE MCD#816 FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE SHORT TERM RISK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 05/16/2025

 

[Tennie]

St. Louis, Missouri, is now under a Tornado Warning. It's currently radar-indicated, and let's hope that it stays that way!

 

[US_Highway15]

This Tornado Warning for St. Louis looks seems to be more of a safety precaution. Definitely looks more outflow dominant.

 

[Anti-Freeze]

He looks like Ozempic Homer Simpson

 

[Atlantic]

State Collage, PA TOR warning:

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

As of right now FWD isn't seeing it.



--Saturday and Saturday Night--

The aforementioned stalled boundary will once again become the
focus of attention tomorrow. The main difference will be the added
source of lift as a short-wave moves overhead late in the morning
to early afternoon hours.

Similar to today, forecast thermodynamic profiles once again
drive instability above 4500 J/kg within a strongly sheared
effective inflow layer. The stalled boundary will continue to be
the surface feature for thunderstorms to initiate. With the added
forcing for ascent due to the shortwave, storm mode will initially
be supercellular in nature. With upscale growth, supercells will
become clusters of storms with a migration from large hail to
damaging winds as the main threats. There will be slightly more
low-level shear tomorrow, however, the overall tornado potential
will continue to remain low.

Yeah, I agree with that as well.