Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

SVR-D and ouch that looks nice, not in da good way

 

[DanLarsen34]

The primary limiting factor I see right now in the observed data is the lack of backed surface winds. Because the wind profiles in place right now in close proximity to these supercells are basically unidirectional, especially in Missouri, we're going to see them struggle to produce any kind of tornadoes over the next 2-3 hours barring mesoscale interactions like storm mergers or terrain locally enhancing low-level shear.

Just to be clear: This SHOULD change once these storms get further into SE Missouri. There's not a lot of observed surface data out there, but there does appear to be better backing the closer you get to the MS River.

 

[TornadoFan]

And the first tornado warning of the day goes to.....Delaware.

 

[ColdFront]

Just to be clear: This SHOULD change once these storms get further into SE Missouri. There's not a lot of observed surface data out there, but there does appear to be better backing the closer you get to the MS River.

Agreed. The biggest thing to me is maintaining the discrete storm mode throughout.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Just to be clear: This SHOULD change once these storms get further into SE Missouri. There's not a lot of observed surface data out there, but there does appear to be better backing the closer you get to the MS River.

Yeah. Also in IL and western KY there is much better backing from the south/southeast via live cameras in Paducah.

 

[Maxis_s]

And the first tornado warning of the day goes to.....Delaware.

New Jersey was first, actually.

 

[klouzek7079]

And the first tornado warning of the day goes to.....Delaware.

They've actually had a few T warnings earlier as well, I just didn't want to clutter the discussion with them haha

 

[Kds86z]

And the first tornado warning of the day goes to.....Delaware.

Well actually new jersey.. lol from earlier

 

[Maxis_s]

Starting to get a fair amount of rotation on that storm in Arkansas on higher tilts.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Left splits galore in this line in MO so far

 

[Kds86z]

Tor possible tag

 

[klouzek7079]

Tor possible tag

Storm north of that just got a tor possible tag as well

 

[ColdFront]

Watch these specks right here. A few models had 1 or 2 open warm sector cells go up on the KY/TN line and track eastward. Not saying these are it, but it’s interesting

 

[Aaron Rider]

The air in central MO definitely has that "feel" to it. Very warm and muggy with a slight unnerving breeze. Will be keeping an eye out as the cold front moves in.

For the record, it feels vaguely that way even in central Pennsylvania. Sometimes I observe that when tornadoes are active way to the west

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

when is main event in like cdt/edt

 

[Kds86z]

For the record, it feels vaguely that way even in central Pennsylvania. Sometimes I observe that when tornadoes are active way to the west

Definitely here humid in Pa today. Md out for possible severe.

 

[Atlantic]

Holy lord! 4500-5000 K/JG?!?!?

 

[TornadoFan]

TOR warning for the storm east of Springfield.

 

[Atlantic]

Holy lord! 4500-5000 K/JG?!?!?
View attachment 41797

This is just surface based ^

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wow, MO east of Springfield and its radar