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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

9m ·
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY WITH EF2+ TORNADOES POSSIBLE including Minneapolis to Chicago
A long duration severe weather outbreak is expected today across the Upper Midwest starting as early as midday across parts of central and northern Minnesota to the west of Minneapolis. Supercells then erupt in the deeper moisture as the jet stream advances by 4 pm in central Wisconsin, building into northern Illinois including the Chicago area by evening. These supercells will be capable of producing EF2 and stronger tornadoes. The tornado threat then shifts across northern Indiana and into southwest Lower Michigan and east during the evening and overnight.
Minneapolis to Madison to Chicago to Gary and east from there: stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings today and tonight


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Jbop said:

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

9m ·
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY WITH EF2+ TORNADOES POSSIBLE including Minneapolis to Chicago
A long duration severe weather outbreak is expected today across the Upper Midwest starting as early as midday across parts of central and northern Minnesota to the west of Minneapolis. Supercells then erupt in the deeper moisture as the jet stream advances by 4 pm in central Wisconsin, building into northern Illinois including the Chicago area by evening. These supercells will be capable of producing EF2 and stronger tornadoes. The tornado threat then shifts across northern Indiana and into southwest Lower Michigan and east during the evening and overnight.
Minneapolis to Madison to Chicago to Gary and east from there: stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings today and tonight


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I knew this post from Reed was coming lol.
 
Jbop said:

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

9m ·
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY WITH EF2+ TORNADOES POSSIBLE including Minneapolis to Chicago
A long duration severe weather outbreak is expected today across the Upper Midwest starting as early as midday across parts of central and northern Minnesota to the west of Minneapolis. Supercells then erupt in the deeper moisture as the jet stream advances by 4 pm in central Wisconsin, building into northern Illinois including the Chicago area by evening. These supercells will be capable of producing EF2 and stronger tornadoes. The tornado threat then shifts across northern Indiana and into southwest Lower Michigan and east during the evening and overnight.
Minneapolis to Madison to Chicago to Gary and east from there: stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings today and tonight


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My sentiment every time Reed posts.
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I really don't want MORE thunderstorms, get outta here severe weather! I have had a stormy May here in Virginia.


Go Away GIF by Night Shift Radio
 
(Mainly focusing on North MS)

12z HRRR at 2am Saturday
00z RRFS at 1am Saturday
12z 3km NAM at 3am Saturday
06z RRFS at 1am Saturday

Honestly, pretty good consensus on timing. Both 00z and 6z RRFS have another MCS rolling across North MS by 11pm Saturday or by midnight Sunday.

It wouldn't surprise me to see that Enhanced Risk brought further south (but probably not as far south as Jackson, MS) with 5% TOR, 30% SIG damaging wind probability, and 30% SIG Hail. Again, overall storm mode dependent upon tornado threat. Could I see a SIG TOR hatch for North MS? Yes, I could.

Also, while widespread damaging winds are the primary threat for MCS/Derechoes, they do produce large hail and tornadoes.
 

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OH-IOan said:
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I was wrong, not 500, but 100 is still insane. Didn't the outlined area see like... 30?
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In his defense, March 15th absolutely had the potential to produce 50-100 tornadoes, especially if the model runs from the day before were anywhere close to what actually happened. I think the consensus in here the day prior to the event was that the 15th had the potential to be the most significant, high-end event we had seen in Dixie since April 27, 2011.

Fortunately, we had some mitigating factors come together that ultimately tamped things down to a more traditional Dixie event.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
In his defense, March 15th absolutely had the potential to produce 50-100 tornadoes, especially if the model runs from the day before were anywhere close to what actually happened. I think the consensus in here the day prior to the event was that the 15th had the potential to be the most significant, high-end event we had seen in Dixie since April 27, 2011.

Fortunately, we had some mitigating factors come together that ultimately tamped things down to a more traditional Dixie event.
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That's fair. But hypecasting can also be dangerous, it's like telling well over a million people to shelter from like twenty tornadoes. That's also just one example, he does that all the time (March 15 isn't the best example).
 
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