• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 41509
This is what the HRRR shows.
Click to expand...
Semi-discrete mode with a few discrete supercells in a environment that looks favorable for intense to possibly violent tornadoes. This run reems high end MDT worthy and honestly is kind of close to the ceiling of the event. Also why is there a long tracked, lone supercell that forms on the TN/KY border and goes to northern NC.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Semi-discrete mode with a few discrete supercells in an environment that looks favorable for intense to possibly violent tornadoes. This run reems high end MDT worthy and honestly is kind of close to the ceiling of the event. Also why is there a long tracked, lone supercell that forms on the TN/KY border and goes to northern NC.
Click to expand...
That one long tracked cell takes it through a pretty familiar area.
 
Found some analogs for tomorrow from my sounding collection. It seems a lot of the soundings we've been pulling are reminiscent of a classic Kansas outbreak.

May 4, 2003: Girard / Liberal / Stockton & Carl Junction & Pierce City Missouri
Numerous high-end, large, long track tornadoes. Out of an outbreak of 15 total tornadoes, 4 were rated F3 and one an F4. Some tracked for 20-80 miles.
1747276909659.png

June 9, 2005: Hill City, Kansas
Cyclic tornadic supercell (up to F2).
1747276923193.png

May 25, 2008: Parkersburg, Iowa
Long-tracked EF5 wedge tornado that killed 9 people.
1747276941523.png

May 25, 2012: La Crosse, Kansas
Particularly cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes, up to EF2, in rapid succession.
1747276967464.png

April 28, 2014: Louisville, Mississippi
Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 10 people.
1747276981001.png

May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma
Two tornadoes, the first a particularly photogenic EF4, and the second an EF3 wedge tornado with winds measured by mobile radar to be over 200 mph.
1747277003373.png

May 21, 2016: Leoti, Kansas
Particularly photogenic, stationary supercell that produced a few brief tornadoes.
1747277014169.png

May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas
Prolific tornadic supercell producing 13 often-photogenic tornadoes (up to EF3), with three documented simultaneously, in a localized area. Often regarded as one of the greatest days of modern storm chasing.
1747277026033.png

May 4, 2019: Denver City, Texas
Particularly photogenic low-precipitation supercell.
1747277047775.png

June 23 2023 Granada–Holly CO / Johnson KS tornadoes, mothership
1747277061918.png
 
Last edited:
Grand Poo Bah said:
Found some analogs for tomorrow from my sounding collection. It seems a lot of the soundings we've been pulling a reminiscent of a classic Kansas outbreak.

May 4, 2003: Girard / Liberal / Stockton & Carl Junction & Pierce City Missouri
Numerous high-end, large, long track tornadoes. Out of an outbreak of 15 total tornadoes, 4 were rated F3 and one an F4. Some tracked for 20-80 miles.
View attachment 41521

June 9, 2005: Hill City, Kansas
Cyclic tornadic supercell (up to F2).
View attachment 41522

May 25, 2008: Parkersburg, Iowa
Long-tracked EF5 wedge tornado that killed 9 people.
View attachment 41523

May 25, 2012: La Crosse, Kansas
Particularly cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes, up to EF2, in rapid succession.
View attachment 41524

April 28, 2014: Louisville, Mississippi
Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 10 people.
View attachment 41525

May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma
Two tornadoes, the first a particularly photogenic EF4, and the second an EF3 wedge tornado with winds measured by mobile radar to be over 200 mph.
View attachment 41527

May 21, 2016: Leoti, Kansas
Particularly photogenic, stationary supercell that produced a few brief tornadoes.
View attachment 41528

May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas
Prolific tornadic supercell producing 13 often-photogenic tornadoes (up to EF3), with three documented simultaneously, in a localized area. Often regarded as one of the greatest days of modern storm chasing.
View attachment 41531

May 4, 2019: Denver City, Texas
Particularly photogenic low-precipitation supercell.
View attachment 41534

June 23 2023 Granada–Holly CO / Johnson KS tornadoes, mothership
View attachment 41535
Click to expand...

Uh wow.. thank you for this detailed easy to follow breakdown…
 
OK, this is the Euro for Friday evening across Limestone Co. AL. The NAM and the 3k NAM are all showing about the same output and not that much of a CAP or CINH. All 3 show the same possible Hazard Type with EHI and SRH output to the moderate end of where it needs to be for this time of year.
Where am I missing the.... not such a threat as some are suggesting with the algorithm's that are within some of the models overplaying CAPE, etc. and reducing the threat/atrmopsheric conditions.
What am I missing here? I see across Southern Tn/ Extreme north Alabama a tornado threat myself.
1747276989926.png
 
Last edited:
US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 41462
Took this sounding from the north central IN/MI border. NAMNST is only the model that really pays respect to tomorrow's ingredients and has the cap breaking (although that's the usual I feel like from the model). Although I would vew this as the *worst case scenario* (peep the Moore 1999 tornado analog). In all, HRRR/NAM/GFS/RAP kind of just laugh tomorrow off and have the cap remain in place.

I'm going to be honest, I kind of give the IWX area a 20-30% of anything occuring. I'm with the NWS IWX MET's on this event in terms of confidence.
Click to expand...
Also notice that a couple of the other analongs are from 6/24/2003 (which saw the F4 tornado that destroyed the town of Manchester, South Dakota, and provided the first verified measurements of pressure drops of over 100 millibars within a tornado).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top