- Thread starter
- #421
And if we know List 5 well, The "M" curse will return at some point.
We first had Hurricane Marilyn in 1995 as a Major Hurricane
Then in 2001 Hurricane Michelle was a one-off use as a Major Hurricane as well.
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
We first had Hurricane Marilyn in 1995 as a Major Hurricane
Then in 2001 Hurricane Michelle was a one-off use as a Major Hurricane as well.
- Thread starter
- #422
Omar has already been a big one. It was the fourth major hurricane in 2008 (2008 is my top analog in fact with 2017 as my second place analog)
If the El Nino, First-year La Nina, Second-year La Nina, El Nino pattern for the analogs for this season is any fact
(2006 was a El Nino, 2007 was a La Nina, 2008 was a La Nina and 2009 was a El Nino)
(2009 was a El Nino, 2010 was a La Nina, 2011 was a La Nina, 2012 was a warm neutral)
(2015 was a El Nino, 2016 was La Nina, 2017 was a La Nina, 2018 was a El Nino)
The Southern Hemisphere activity is behaving most like the 2007-08 season down there, and 2008 is an analog for me.
- Thread starter
- #423
2023 was an El Nino, 2024 was a La Nina (barely) and 2025 is expected to potentially a La Nina late in the year. Other than one occurence of a El Nino, La Nina, La Nina, La Nina.
The trend seems to be an El Nino followed by two La Ninas and then an El Nino again.
IdaliaHelene
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Humberto > Melissa
IdaliaHelene
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Which names are you certain would be pathetic weaklings and would only mog your pinky toe?
- Thread starter
- #426
I
I think Barry, Chantal, Olga and Sebastien will be weak. They always have so far.
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What about mid?
- Thread starter
- #428
Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Rebekah are the names that I would call mid.
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And what about the others?
- Thread starter
- #430
From the Storm2K thread “Two years after El Niños end…”
This theory was pretty much proved right in 2017. If I may add on to this theory just a bit, I'd like to say that while the 2nd year after an El Nino will have a major US strike, the first year after an El Nino is one that the Caribbean, Central America, Cuba, Haiti, Canada and the other countries should keep watch. Aside from 1973 and 1984, every 1st year after an El Nino featured a major landfall in places outside the US, with 1959, 1995 and 2016 being the only ones to actually feature a major US landfall.
1 Year later
1957-1958: Gracie hits the uS
1965: Hurricane Inez devastates parts of the Caribbean
1968: Camille hits the US, plus Francelia kills over 200 in Central America
1972: None
1976-1977: Greta hits Central America
1982-1983: N/A
1986-1987: Gilbert and Joan, nuff said
1991-1994: Luis and Marilyn devastate the Islands while Roxanne causes damage in Mexico. Opal also hits the US as major hurricane
1997: Georges and Mitch - nuff said
2002: Fabian causes damage in Bermuda while Juan causes damage in Canada. Isabel also hits the US
2006: Dean and Felix both make landfalls at Category 5 intensity
2009: Igor hits Newfoundland badly and Tomas causes damage in St. Lucia
2015: Matthew hits Haiti and Cuba before heading into the US. Otto also causes damage in Costa Rica
Interestingly, 1969, 1988, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2016 all featured Category 5 hurricanes one year after the end of an El Nino (although Camille occurred in a Modoki).
Re: Two years after El Nino's end...
This theory was pretty much proved right in 2017. If I may add on to this theory just a bit, I'd like to say that while the 2nd year after an El Nino will have a major US strike, the first year after an El Nino is one that the Caribbean, Central America, Cuba, Haiti, Canada and the other countries should keep watch. Aside from 1973 and 1984, every 1st year after an El Nino featured a major landfall in places outside the US, with 1959, 1995 and 2016 being the only ones to actually feature a major US landfall.
1 Year later
1957-1958: Gracie hits the uS
1965: Hurricane Inez devastates parts of the Caribbean
1968: Camille hits the US, plus Francelia kills over 200 in Central America
1972: None
1976-1977: Greta hits Central America
1982-1983: N/A
1986-1987: Gilbert and Joan, nuff said
1991-1994: Luis and Marilyn devastate the Islands while Roxanne causes damage in Mexico. Opal also hits the US as major hurricane
1997: Georges and Mitch - nuff said
2002: Fabian causes damage in Bermuda while Juan causes damage in Canada. Isabel also hits the US
2006: Dean and Felix both make landfalls at Category 5 intensity
2009: Igor hits Newfoundland badly and Tomas causes damage in St. Lucia
2015: Matthew hits Haiti and Cuba before heading into the US. Otto also causes damage in Costa Rica
Interestingly, 1969, 1988, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2016 all featured Category 5 hurricanes one year after the end of an El Nino (although Camille occurred in a Modoki).
- Thread starter
- #431
Another post from that thread:
Can't believe I've missed this! But been busy with other matters. In anay event.....
Three years after an El Nino, a major hit in the US is rare. It has only happened in three such hurricane seasons: 1950 with both Easy and King (may be fourth year or later too!), 1975 with Eloise, and 2012 with Sandy (more non-tropical when it hit anyway).
To corroborate NotSparta, 1990 and 2012 were indeed busy, as was 2000, which also fell in this spot. 1981 was another such year that was busier than normal when you consider the overall inactive Atlantic phase. But while lots of storms form, few get really powerful. 1981 had three majors, 1990 one (for less than 24 hours, I might add), 2000 three, and 2012 two.
There can often be one sizable threat though. I mentioned 1950, but also 1956 had Betsy, 1971 had Edith, 1990 had Diana, 2000 had Keith, and 2012 had Sandy. US landfalls are iffy though. Besides the big four I mentioned, there were Flossy in 1956, Edith in 1971, Fern in 1971, for now Ginger in 1971 (on my list of storms that may get downgraded though), and Isaac in 2012. Yes, Isaac was the first US landfalling hurricane three years after an El Nino in 37 years! Gordon in 2000 was awfully close though.
As for 1975? As Hurricane Ryan mentioned, 1973 was one such first-year-after with no really big threatening storm in the tropics south of 20 degrees. The only other such year was 1984 (if you consider a warm EPAC MDR in 1983 as being essentially an El Nino). One must remember that the Atlantic was colder overall than since 1988, since maybe the mechanics were a little messed up and delayed the process. Of course, Carmen still hit in 1974 and both Elena and Gloria in 1985. Does that explain though how Eloise made the Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane? Caroline and Gladys were plenty big threats too that year; the former hit just south of the border as a major in fact.
1962 was also three years after an El Nino if you consider 1959's EPAC MDR as behaving like an El Nino as well, like 1983. That year had very little threats to speak of. Daisy in Maine and Canada?
The Atlantic seems cooler this year though, and the threats don't seem to be lining up like in the last couple years. I can see a somewhat busy season, but low-quality with no more than one or two big threats. Hopefully there is a much-needed break after last year.
At least 2018 isn't a second year after though!!!
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #432
Also keep this in mind for the tracks of the first few storms and then looking for analog years that had similar tracks early on, and then looking at the tracks afterward the early storms:
“This may be somewhat off topic, but it could apply to this discussion: I have noticed that the tracks of the first few storms of each season often give some indication as to the prevailing steering patterns. In 2017, based on the tracks of the first three systems, I looked at past seasons for similar early paths. Based on the most similar years, I privately concluded that Florida and the Gulf would be probable targets. This turned out to be the case. Based on the early tracks in 2018, I think we may see steering patterns rather similar to those in 1863, to cite one possible analog. 1863 featured a number of systems that tracked close to but just offshore of the U.S. East Coast, often between the U.S. and Bermuda, coming closest to the Outer Banks. A few systems also impacted the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf. Additionally, the recently documented Hurricane Amanda in May took a very similar track to that of this year's Alberto. To me, the data suggest that the Bay of Campeche, western Gulf, and Outer Banks may be at greatest risk in 2018, along with Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.”
“This may be somewhat off topic, but it could apply to this discussion: I have noticed that the tracks of the first few storms of each season often give some indication as to the prevailing steering patterns. In 2017, based on the tracks of the first three systems, I looked at past seasons for similar early paths. Based on the most similar years, I privately concluded that Florida and the Gulf would be probable targets. This turned out to be the case. Based on the early tracks in 2018, I think we may see steering patterns rather similar to those in 1863, to cite one possible analog. 1863 featured a number of systems that tracked close to but just offshore of the U.S. East Coast, often between the U.S. and Bermuda, coming closest to the Outer Banks. A few systems also impacted the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf. Additionally, the recently documented Hurricane Amanda in May took a very similar track to that of this year's Alberto. To me, the data suggest that the Bay of Campeche, western Gulf, and Outer Banks may be at greatest risk in 2018, along with Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.”
- Thread starter
- #433
Here is that first post from the same thread:
Supporter
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I posted this on another thread that was meant to be light-hearted, even fun, but thought this warranted some kind of discussion on its own too. I recently have done some research into El Nino years and what happens in the immediate years after them. With the exception of Modoki years, I have found no consistent trends with the first year after. But the second year after is another story - again, excepting Modoki's, which I'll discuss a little later.
The trend in the second year after a full El Nino ends? Since 1960, when the satellite era began, every single year that is two years after a full El Nino has ended, has featured at least one hurricane with a pressure of 960 MB or lower strike the United States. There is no exception. Here is a list of the full El Nino events, and then the major hurricane(s) that hit two years after it was over.
Two years after
1957-1958: Donna rakes the entire East Coast.
1965: Beulah slams into the Brownsville area after having previously been a category 5 storm.
1968: Celia runs right into Corpus Christi.
1972: Carmen becomes one of central Louisiana's most intense hurricanes.
1976-1977: Frederic becomes one of the classic Gulf Coast hurricanes.
1982-1983: Elena hits the Gulf, Gloria hits the East Coast - interestingly though, 1983 by East Pacific SST's was La Nina but was El Nino by MEI. Even so, Diana was right off North Carolina in 1984 also with 949 MB of pressure, about as close to landfall as one can get without it actually happening.
1986-1987: Hugo becomes one of South Carolina's worst hurricanes in history.
1991-1994: Fran joins the ranks of destructive North Carolina storms, even compared to Hazel at first.
1997: Bret fortuitously hits the most unpopulated county in south Texas, but Floyd deluges the East Coast, primarily North Carolina and New Jersey.
2002: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. No further comment.
2006: Category 2's in wind, Gustav threatens a repeat of Katrina, while Ike makes a name for himself in Galveston and Houston.
2009: Even a category 1 in wind can have a pressure that low, just ask those hit by Irene all throughout the East Coast.
This kind of analysis just has to make me think for a second. Why has this happened every second year after an El Nino has passed? And also, will it happen again? This current hurricane season is either in the midst of, or about to go into, full El Nino mode by the looks of it. Of course, this event could last another year as some have in the past. Regardless, this just seems to happen too often to be a mere coincidence; something must be at work. It really makes me wonder just what 2014 might be like.
However, I'm still not quite finished. Some years are Modoki El Nino years, where conditions still remain favorable to a degree in the Atlantic. There are three known Modoki years in my mind: 1963, 1969, and 2004. And here is what happened one year after those El Nino's passed:
1964: Hilda slams into Louisiana as a major hurricane, while Cleo and Dora hit Florida as lesser in intensity but larger in size storms.
1970: Already mentioned Celia above. Freaky this year is both two years after a full and one year after a Modoki!
2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. No more comments.
This is an admittedly very small sample size. However, I may have found a fourth one, albeit weaker. I took a look at this link from the ENSO Updates thread:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
What I found is another year I hadn't noticed as a potential El Nino year, 1979. I don't know much about MEI, but .769 was the highest value during that hurricane season itself and seems suggestive of some type of El Nino. That value is comparable with the other Modoki years, though not so much with the full ones. I also took a look at this link provided by Ptarmigan in one of my weekly predictions:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... intpage.pl
Now try these parameters:
Which Variable? NOAA Extended SST
Level: Surface
Beginning month of season: June
Ending month of season: Dec
Enter only 1979 in years for composites
Skip to Type of comparison: Anomaly, Greater or equal to value
When inputting these parameters on that page, I find a small tongue of slightly above-average waters in the Equatorial Pacific, a bit offshore of South America. Putting all this together, I am wondering if 1979 was a very weak Modoki year as well. If such is the case, the pattern I noted above would indeed be suggestive of a major hurricane hitting in 1980. And what happened that year? Hurricane Allen ran right into Brownsville.
Long discussion, so let's recap in a nutshell. Two years after every full El Nino, a major hurricane has hit the United States. If the year is a Modoki El Nino, it's only one year until that storm hits the United States. Even more amazing is the one-year-after for Modoki's holds true even if that Modoki is also two years after a full El Nino year, though my sample size is still very small. This has happened in every such instance since 1960. If you ask me, this is too frequent to be mere coincidence.
As a last aside, we are still fresh from a period of two straight years without a US hurricane landfall. Every time this has happened, within a few years have come a barrage of hurricanes in one year. 1933, 1985, 2004 (and 2005 too). Another small sample size, but hope all this isn't a harbinger for what 2014 may have in store... I'm definitely enjoying this year while we got it and hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
Thoughts on this trend?
-Andrew92
Supporter
Two years after El Nino's end...
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I posted this on another thread that was meant to be light-hearted, even fun, but thought this warranted some kind of discussion on its own too. I recently have done some research into El Nino years and what happens in the immediate years after them. With the exception of Modoki years, I have found no consistent trends with the first year after. But the second year after is another story - again, excepting Modoki's, which I'll discuss a little later.
The trend in the second year after a full El Nino ends? Since 1960, when the satellite era began, every single year that is two years after a full El Nino has ended, has featured at least one hurricane with a pressure of 960 MB or lower strike the United States. There is no exception. Here is a list of the full El Nino events, and then the major hurricane(s) that hit two years after it was over.
Two years after
1957-1958: Donna rakes the entire East Coast.
1965: Beulah slams into the Brownsville area after having previously been a category 5 storm.
1968: Celia runs right into Corpus Christi.
1972: Carmen becomes one of central Louisiana's most intense hurricanes.
1976-1977: Frederic becomes one of the classic Gulf Coast hurricanes.
1982-1983: Elena hits the Gulf, Gloria hits the East Coast - interestingly though, 1983 by East Pacific SST's was La Nina but was El Nino by MEI. Even so, Diana was right off North Carolina in 1984 also with 949 MB of pressure, about as close to landfall as one can get without it actually happening.
1986-1987: Hugo becomes one of South Carolina's worst hurricanes in history.
1991-1994: Fran joins the ranks of destructive North Carolina storms, even compared to Hazel at first.
1997: Bret fortuitously hits the most unpopulated county in south Texas, but Floyd deluges the East Coast, primarily North Carolina and New Jersey.
2002: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. No further comment.
2006: Category 2's in wind, Gustav threatens a repeat of Katrina, while Ike makes a name for himself in Galveston and Houston.
2009: Even a category 1 in wind can have a pressure that low, just ask those hit by Irene all throughout the East Coast.
This kind of analysis just has to make me think for a second. Why has this happened every second year after an El Nino has passed? And also, will it happen again? This current hurricane season is either in the midst of, or about to go into, full El Nino mode by the looks of it. Of course, this event could last another year as some have in the past. Regardless, this just seems to happen too often to be a mere coincidence; something must be at work. It really makes me wonder just what 2014 might be like.
However, I'm still not quite finished. Some years are Modoki El Nino years, where conditions still remain favorable to a degree in the Atlantic. There are three known Modoki years in my mind: 1963, 1969, and 2004. And here is what happened one year after those El Nino's passed:
1964: Hilda slams into Louisiana as a major hurricane, while Cleo and Dora hit Florida as lesser in intensity but larger in size storms.
1970: Already mentioned Celia above. Freaky this year is both two years after a full and one year after a Modoki!
2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. No more comments.
This is an admittedly very small sample size. However, I may have found a fourth one, albeit weaker. I took a look at this link from the ENSO Updates thread:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
What I found is another year I hadn't noticed as a potential El Nino year, 1979. I don't know much about MEI, but .769 was the highest value during that hurricane season itself and seems suggestive of some type of El Nino. That value is comparable with the other Modoki years, though not so much with the full ones. I also took a look at this link provided by Ptarmigan in one of my weekly predictions:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... intpage.pl
Now try these parameters:
Which Variable? NOAA Extended SST
Level: Surface
Beginning month of season: June
Ending month of season: Dec
Enter only 1979 in years for composites
Skip to Type of comparison: Anomaly, Greater or equal to value
When inputting these parameters on that page, I find a small tongue of slightly above-average waters in the Equatorial Pacific, a bit offshore of South America. Putting all this together, I am wondering if 1979 was a very weak Modoki year as well. If such is the case, the pattern I noted above would indeed be suggestive of a major hurricane hitting in 1980. And what happened that year? Hurricane Allen ran right into Brownsville.
Long discussion, so let's recap in a nutshell. Two years after every full El Nino, a major hurricane has hit the United States. If the year is a Modoki El Nino, it's only one year until that storm hits the United States. Even more amazing is the one-year-after for Modoki's holds true even if that Modoki is also two years after a full El Nino year, though my sample size is still very small. This has happened in every such instance since 1960. If you ask me, this is too frequent to be mere coincidence.
As a last aside, we are still fresh from a period of two straight years without a US hurricane landfall. Every time this has happened, within a few years have come a barrage of hurricanes in one year. 1933, 1985, 2004 (and 2005 too). Another small sample size, but hope all this isn't a harbinger for what 2014 may have in store... I'm definitely enjoying this year while we got it and hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
Thoughts on this trend?
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #434
I’m probably just rambling but this thread gives us a lot to think about, because… this year (2025) is two years after an El Niño:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I made another discovery today on this topic. As you will see, not only is the season two years after an El Nino one, along with one year after a Modoki, more likely to have a major hurricane, but more hurricanes, regardless of category, also hit the United States in these years than any others! And the margins of hurricanes and one's low pressure in these years compared to all the others are staggering.
First, consider that there have been 52 full hurricane seasons in the satellite era, discounting 2012. 73 hurricanes have hit the United States since 1960. I also have a correction from a past post, the number of major hurricanes to hit since then is 34, not the 35 I had mentioned earlier. Again, this includes Diana from 1984 and also Emily from 1993, even though they were technically offshore during their times of minimum pressure and maximum winds, but barely so from North Carolina.
In the 11 years that are two seasons after an El Nino season, combined with the three seasons that follow a Modoki season - 14 seasons total - 37 hurricanes have hit the United States! And 22 of these storms were major hurricanes, or at least had a pressure normally representative of a category 3 or higher storm. That is about half of all the hurricanes, and two thirds of all the majors, that have hit the United States in the satellite era. In just these 14 seasons!
You can do the math from here. Taking out 14 seasons from 52 total leaves 38 seasons. We also accounted for 37 hurricanes out of 73, leaving 36 to go. And 22 out of 34 hit in the aforementioned years, leaving just 12 in these 38.
In one of the usual 38 years, you will usually on average get one hurricane landfall in the US per year, but not always. But in the other 14, you should get an average of two or three hurricanes in the US! But what's more, is that major hurricanes only strike about one every three of the regular to El Nino seasons. In the other 14, one or two strike the US on average. The odds of any hurricane hitting the US two years after an El Nino year, combined with one year after a Modoki, are roughly three times higher than in other years. And with major hurricanes, I thought the odds were double at first, but I was even underestimating that. The odds of a major hurricane for the US in these years are as much as FIVE times higher!
One other interesting note is that in the 38 seasons that don't meet this rule, only seven have had at least two hurricanes hit the US, about 20% of them all. In the other 14, nine seasons have had at least two hurricanes, good for almost 65% of them - tripling the historical odds of two or more hurricanes reaching the US in those years. Also, six of these 14 have three or more make it that far, versus just two in the other 38.
I again have to ask... just what is it about the second year after an El Nino season? Or the first year after a Modoki year?
I'm going to try to research just what happens not only with the El Nino years, but the immediate two years that follow - except just one year after for Modoki's. This process may take a while, but I am very intrigued to see what I come up with. Or maybe, as suggested above, this is just purely random. But until I see proof of it, I'm actually not convinced it's random.
-Andrew92
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I made another discovery today on this topic. As you will see, not only is the season two years after an El Nino one, along with one year after a Modoki, more likely to have a major hurricane, but more hurricanes, regardless of category, also hit the United States in these years than any others! And the margins of hurricanes and one's low pressure in these years compared to all the others are staggering.
First, consider that there have been 52 full hurricane seasons in the satellite era, discounting 2012. 73 hurricanes have hit the United States since 1960. I also have a correction from a past post, the number of major hurricanes to hit since then is 34, not the 35 I had mentioned earlier. Again, this includes Diana from 1984 and also Emily from 1993, even though they were technically offshore during their times of minimum pressure and maximum winds, but barely so from North Carolina.
In the 11 years that are two seasons after an El Nino season, combined with the three seasons that follow a Modoki season - 14 seasons total - 37 hurricanes have hit the United States! And 22 of these storms were major hurricanes, or at least had a pressure normally representative of a category 3 or higher storm. That is about half of all the hurricanes, and two thirds of all the majors, that have hit the United States in the satellite era. In just these 14 seasons!
You can do the math from here. Taking out 14 seasons from 52 total leaves 38 seasons. We also accounted for 37 hurricanes out of 73, leaving 36 to go. And 22 out of 34 hit in the aforementioned years, leaving just 12 in these 38.
In one of the usual 38 years, you will usually on average get one hurricane landfall in the US per year, but not always. But in the other 14, you should get an average of two or three hurricanes in the US! But what's more, is that major hurricanes only strike about one every three of the regular to El Nino seasons. In the other 14, one or two strike the US on average. The odds of any hurricane hitting the US two years after an El Nino year, combined with one year after a Modoki, are roughly three times higher than in other years. And with major hurricanes, I thought the odds were double at first, but I was even underestimating that. The odds of a major hurricane for the US in these years are as much as FIVE times higher!
One other interesting note is that in the 38 seasons that don't meet this rule, only seven have had at least two hurricanes hit the US, about 20% of them all. In the other 14, nine seasons have had at least two hurricanes, good for almost 65% of them - tripling the historical odds of two or more hurricanes reaching the US in those years. Also, six of these 14 have three or more make it that far, versus just two in the other 38.
I again have to ask... just what is it about the second year after an El Nino season? Or the first year after a Modoki year?
I'm going to try to research just what happens not only with the El Nino years, but the immediate two years that follow - except just one year after for Modoki's. This process may take a while, but I am very intrigued to see what I come up with. Or maybe, as suggested above, this is just purely random. But until I see proof of it, I'm actually not convinced it's random.
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #435
Another one, I know I am probably spamming but I would like to get this info here for everyone to see;
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'm working on the research I said I would for the El Nino seasons and the two years that follow. I started in 1960 (which was a second year after an El Nino) and have worked in chronological order. I am currently on 1984 and I am noticing some trends.
Full-on El Nino years, in general, are marked by westerly winds (which are unfavorable for development) in the tropics that overlie easterly trade winds (which are more favorable). Therefore, disturbances trying to become tropical storms or hurricanes in those years usually formed in the subtropical latitudes or in the Gulf of Mexico. Another typical feature I am noticing is weaker than normal high pressure near the Azores. This may help to explain why so few storms that to manage to develop and strengthen in those years, make it further west and instead re-curve to the north.
In the first year after an El Nino, that high pressure ridge usually gets a little stronger. Even so, the westerly winds, at least in 1966, 1969, 1973, and 1978 (all of which came one year after a full El Nino) were still somewhat present. There were more storms developing in the tropics those years as conditions became more favorable, but few were intensifying into anything significant. That's at least in the Main Development Region, excepting Inez in 1966. The caveat to this is the western Caribbean is often a bit more favorable in those year. Inez also re-intensified there, Camille and Francelia (both major hurricanes) formed there in 1969, Brenda formed there in 1973 and was the only hurricane south of 20 degrees latitude that year, and Greta became a powerful hurricane there too in 1978. Stronger ridging, plus these storms forming further west, seems to allow these storms to follow those tracks and reach that favorable area. But the majority of the strong storms in those years still tend to be in the subtropics, and also re-curve quickly to the northeast. Very few storms that form in the Main Development Region the year immediately following an El Nino eventually reach the United States, either by the strong ridging when forming to the west, or a weakness between ridges if they form further east.
Now we get to the main event: the second year after a full El Nino. As mentioned before, ridging is usually weaker in El Nino years. The ridging gets a little stronger once the El Nino subsides a little, but doesn't reach its full strength until the next year. On top of it, troughs to steer hurricanes north have been present in the Midwestern regions, keeping many storms from colliding with Central America or Mexico. Beulah still did hit the Yucatan in 1967 (two years after an El Nino) and then made landfall pretty close to the Texas/Mexico border. I couldn't find anything stated about what caused that northwestward motion. However, I have so far found that a trough over the central United States has steered Donna, Carmen, David, and Frederic - all of which occurred in the second year after an El Nino - northward before they could get too far west in the Gulf of Mexico. I am thinking a similar scenario is likely with Beulah. Carmen actually hit the Yucatan too, but I did read it was a trough that sent that storm north into Louisiana.
And now I get to a bit of a conundrum. It is quite clear than 1982 was a strong El Nino year. What isn't so clear is what we call 1983. According to East Pacific sea surface temperatures, that year turned La Nina during the hurricane season; however, the MEI was still at El Nino thresholds. In addition, that year was continually marked by the same strong shear that ripped apart many disturbances in 1982. But at least Beryl formed from a tropical wave in the Main Development Region that year; no storms formed in 1983 in that area, a very odd occurrence for the year following a full El Nino.
From here, I will use what I am finding in 1984, and what I already know without the full research of 1985 to make some likely conclusions. Only one storm in 1984 became a hurricane south of 20 degrees latitude: Klaus, as it was leaving the eastern Caribbean. Three other weak storms did form in the Main Development Region, but never could get off the ground. The other hurricanes that year all formed slightly further north from frontal or subtropical systems. What's more, the typical strong ridge of high pressure in the second year after an El Nino didn't seem to be present in 1984, and many storms following a westerly flow pattern the subtropical latitudes (that is, quickly turned eastward out to sea). That said, Diana was within 25 miles of Cape Fear as a very powerful storm, and if we are indeed to call 1984 as two years after an El Nino, Diana would probably be the major. I have also read that maximum 1-minute winds reported on land were 52 meters/second, which if I have calculated correctly is about 115 mph, category 3 intensity. Diana is currently listed as striking North Carolina as a category 2, but I would probably raise that to category 3 after seeing this. Then again, I am looking at a document written in 1985 here; not sure if that means anything on an accuracy standpoint but wanted to say it. But it formed from a frontal system; the other storms in the second year after were from classical, Cape Verde type waves. What's more, only one other tropical storm reached the United States that year, Isidore. But that also happened in 1967 (with just Doria) and 1974 (with just an additional subtropical storm) so I digress - but I recall reading that pressures over the southern United States were quite high in those two years, unlike 1960 and 1979.
Ánd then there's 1985. Again, I haven't gotten into that year yet, but here is just what I know. Gloria was the only Cape Verde storm, but it was also the strongest hurricane that year and made it all the way to the East Coast with a pressure normally suggestive of category 3 intensity. Several other tropical storms and hurricanes - most of them weak, except for Elena of course - reached the Gulf Coast or Carolinas that year. Without delving into what the flow patterns were with the storms that year, I am guessing that the strong ridge of high pressure normally seen in the second year after, took place in 1985, not 1984.
In short, I still believe 1983 was an El Nino year for the most part, with 1984 playing the part of the first year after and 1985 the second year. But even if not, 1984 would still fit the bill if Diana counts as a category 3 strike for North Carolina, which I think should after reading about it. I know, she looped offshore and weakened substantially before landfall, but that wind report I discovered makes me think that, plus with 25 miles of Cape Fear is just too close not to count it at that, in my opinion. Helene in 1958 was raised to that intensity for North Carolina even though it was, like Diana, just offshore but producing likely similar weather in that area. And don't forget Emily in 1993, which is counted as a category 3 strike for the Outer Banks, but didn't actually make landfall either and wasn't as strong as Helene or Diana.
But.... I'm also only to 1984. Long ways to go!
-Andrew92
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'm working on the research I said I would for the El Nino seasons and the two years that follow. I started in 1960 (which was a second year after an El Nino) and have worked in chronological order. I am currently on 1984 and I am noticing some trends.
Full-on El Nino years, in general, are marked by westerly winds (which are unfavorable for development) in the tropics that overlie easterly trade winds (which are more favorable). Therefore, disturbances trying to become tropical storms or hurricanes in those years usually formed in the subtropical latitudes or in the Gulf of Mexico. Another typical feature I am noticing is weaker than normal high pressure near the Azores. This may help to explain why so few storms that to manage to develop and strengthen in those years, make it further west and instead re-curve to the north.
In the first year after an El Nino, that high pressure ridge usually gets a little stronger. Even so, the westerly winds, at least in 1966, 1969, 1973, and 1978 (all of which came one year after a full El Nino) were still somewhat present. There were more storms developing in the tropics those years as conditions became more favorable, but few were intensifying into anything significant. That's at least in the Main Development Region, excepting Inez in 1966. The caveat to this is the western Caribbean is often a bit more favorable in those year. Inez also re-intensified there, Camille and Francelia (both major hurricanes) formed there in 1969, Brenda formed there in 1973 and was the only hurricane south of 20 degrees latitude that year, and Greta became a powerful hurricane there too in 1978. Stronger ridging, plus these storms forming further west, seems to allow these storms to follow those tracks and reach that favorable area. But the majority of the strong storms in those years still tend to be in the subtropics, and also re-curve quickly to the northeast. Very few storms that form in the Main Development Region the year immediately following an El Nino eventually reach the United States, either by the strong ridging when forming to the west, or a weakness between ridges if they form further east.
Now we get to the main event: the second year after a full El Nino. As mentioned before, ridging is usually weaker in El Nino years. The ridging gets a little stronger once the El Nino subsides a little, but doesn't reach its full strength until the next year. On top of it, troughs to steer hurricanes north have been present in the Midwestern regions, keeping many storms from colliding with Central America or Mexico. Beulah still did hit the Yucatan in 1967 (two years after an El Nino) and then made landfall pretty close to the Texas/Mexico border. I couldn't find anything stated about what caused that northwestward motion. However, I have so far found that a trough over the central United States has steered Donna, Carmen, David, and Frederic - all of which occurred in the second year after an El Nino - northward before they could get too far west in the Gulf of Mexico. I am thinking a similar scenario is likely with Beulah. Carmen actually hit the Yucatan too, but I did read it was a trough that sent that storm north into Louisiana.
And now I get to a bit of a conundrum. It is quite clear than 1982 was a strong El Nino year. What isn't so clear is what we call 1983. According to East Pacific sea surface temperatures, that year turned La Nina during the hurricane season; however, the MEI was still at El Nino thresholds. In addition, that year was continually marked by the same strong shear that ripped apart many disturbances in 1982. But at least Beryl formed from a tropical wave in the Main Development Region that year; no storms formed in 1983 in that area, a very odd occurrence for the year following a full El Nino.
From here, I will use what I am finding in 1984, and what I already know without the full research of 1985 to make some likely conclusions. Only one storm in 1984 became a hurricane south of 20 degrees latitude: Klaus, as it was leaving the eastern Caribbean. Three other weak storms did form in the Main Development Region, but never could get off the ground. The other hurricanes that year all formed slightly further north from frontal or subtropical systems. What's more, the typical strong ridge of high pressure in the second year after an El Nino didn't seem to be present in 1984, and many storms following a westerly flow pattern the subtropical latitudes (that is, quickly turned eastward out to sea). That said, Diana was within 25 miles of Cape Fear as a very powerful storm, and if we are indeed to call 1984 as two years after an El Nino, Diana would probably be the major. I have also read that maximum 1-minute winds reported on land were 52 meters/second, which if I have calculated correctly is about 115 mph, category 3 intensity. Diana is currently listed as striking North Carolina as a category 2, but I would probably raise that to category 3 after seeing this. Then again, I am looking at a document written in 1985 here; not sure if that means anything on an accuracy standpoint but wanted to say it. But it formed from a frontal system; the other storms in the second year after were from classical, Cape Verde type waves. What's more, only one other tropical storm reached the United States that year, Isidore. But that also happened in 1967 (with just Doria) and 1974 (with just an additional subtropical storm) so I digress - but I recall reading that pressures over the southern United States were quite high in those two years, unlike 1960 and 1979.
Ánd then there's 1985. Again, I haven't gotten into that year yet, but here is just what I know. Gloria was the only Cape Verde storm, but it was also the strongest hurricane that year and made it all the way to the East Coast with a pressure normally suggestive of category 3 intensity. Several other tropical storms and hurricanes - most of them weak, except for Elena of course - reached the Gulf Coast or Carolinas that year. Without delving into what the flow patterns were with the storms that year, I am guessing that the strong ridge of high pressure normally seen in the second year after, took place in 1985, not 1984.
In short, I still believe 1983 was an El Nino year for the most part, with 1984 playing the part of the first year after and 1985 the second year. But even if not, 1984 would still fit the bill if Diana counts as a category 3 strike for North Carolina, which I think should after reading about it. I know, she looped offshore and weakened substantially before landfall, but that wind report I discovered makes me think that, plus with 25 miles of Cape Fear is just too close not to count it at that, in my opinion. Helene in 1958 was raised to that intensity for North Carolina even though it was, like Diana, just offshore but producing likely similar weather in that area. And don't forget Emily in 1993, which is counted as a category 3 strike for the Outer Banks, but didn't actually make landfall either and wasn't as strong as Helene or Diana.
But.... I'm also only to 1984. Long ways to go!
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #436
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I also just took a look at what the sea surface temperatures were truly like in 1983 in the Eastern Pacific to try to either support or refute the claim some have of La Nina forming. I used the second link in my post above, with the same parameters used for 1979, except of course changing the year to 1983.
What I found is that indeed La Nina appeared to be forming, but the cooler waters in the equatorial Pacific were further away from South America. What's more, warmer anomalies were still very much strong during the hurricane season immediately off the coast.
Take a look at that data for yourself. I am highly convinced that in 1983, we were still very much in El Nino, making 1984 the first year after and 1985 the dreaded second year after. While I had to make some inferences in what happened in 1984, the trend that year tended to follow the trends of 1966, 1969, 1973, and 1978 - all years immediately after an El Nino year. The 1985 flow seems too much more consistent with 1960, 1967, 1970, 1974, and 1979, which were all two years after a full El Nino, than 1984 was. I'm just starting to get to that year, and it indeed does appear a ridge of high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic was weak in 1982 and 1983, strengthened a little more in 1984, and reached full strength in 1985, consistent with all the other patterns up to that point following El Nino years. Of course, I still have to get into years since then, but I am becoming more confident that this is a trend with El Nino's and the immediate years.
My statistical numbers of 37-36 for hurricanes in second year after will have to change even more in favor of those years, to 42-31. Also 23-11 for major hurricanes when comparing second years after El Ninos, to all other seasons. The first number is the second year after value, with the second one all other 38 seasons. When my research is complete, I'll give the even more staggering numbers than I had previously thought (which were scary enough to begin with).
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #437
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Well it's been a while in the wake of an active Atlantic and all, but I have come up with some further analysis on this topic... this is long, bear with me.
As said in a previous post, the number of hurricanes to strike the United States since 1960 (excluding Isaac) is 73. 42 of these hurricanes have hit in the second year after an El Nino or first year after a Modoki - which includes 14 seasons. That's an average of 3 hurricanes a year hitting the United States in these years. Contrast that with 31 hurricans in the remaining 38 seasons, which comes to an average of 81.58 percent of all of these seasons having just one landfall. In other words, if it's not the second year after an El Nino or first year after a Modoki, every fifth such year on average does not see a hurricane strike the United States. This makes the odds of the United States getting hit by a hurricane of any category 3.68 times higher in one of these 14 years.
The numbers are even scarier for major hurricanes. I decided to define these not just by category 3 or higher in terms of maximum sustained winds, but also if the pressure was 960 millibars or lower because those storms are typically at least as potentially destructive as a category 3 as defined on that scale. The number of these kinds of storms hitting the United States since 1960 is 34. Of these, 23 have hit in the 14 seasons that are either two years after El Nino or one year after a Modoki. That leaves 11 majors to strike in all the other 38 years. On average, one or two hurricanes strikes the United States in these 14 seasons, and about one major hurricane every three to four seasons of all the other 38 makes it there. The odds of a major hurricane striking the United States in a second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki... an astonishing 5.68 times higher!
These are scary numbers. However, I had to ask myself again, what makes these seasons stick out? It turns out, in all of these years, there has been a negative 500-mb geopotential height anomaly over usually the Midwestern states, coupled with a fairly decent positive anomaly over the western Atlantic. In essence, this leaves a steering flow to allow hurricanes that reach this far west (and many do in these seasons) to then turn to the north once they reach longitudes near the United States. Usually, the negative anomaly is over about the center of the Great Plains. Sometimes it's stronger like in years like 1996 and 2011, and sometimes it's weaker like in years like 1979 and 1985.
I also looked at the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes to take place in the Gulf of Mexico in the second year after El Nino and first year after Modoki, versus the remaining 38 seasons. The numbers go like this:
Second year after El Nino/first year after Modoki: 59/33/21 in 14 seasons
The remaining years: 97/48/17 in 38 seasons
That may sound like more tropical storms and hurricanes do their share of damage in the 38 seasons. But two more majors have happened in the 14 seasons than in all the other 38 in the Gulf. Yikes! What's more, when running the numbers, about two to three tropical storms on average reach the Gulf in the 38 latter seasons, but that's compared to roughly four storms in the 14 seasons either two years after an El Nino or one year after a Modoki. What's more is that not only is a there a higher number of storms in these 14 years, but they are more intense in the Gulf in these years too! Only a slightly higher percentage become hurricanes in these years (55.9 percent versus 49.5 percent), but many more become majors here per capita in these 14 than in all the other 38 - nearly twice as many in fact (33.9 percent in the 14 years versus 18.6 percent in the other 38). As for major hurricanes per hurricane, how about 60.6 percent in the second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki, compared to 37.5 percent in the other 38.
Here's another eyepopping stat. 13 years of the aforementioned 38 have had at least one major hurricane in the Gulf, or about one third of these years. What's more is that only four of these years (1966, 1975, 2002, and 2010) had two majors in the Gulf (remember I am also counting storms of 960 millibars or lower regardless of Saffir/Simpson category, which would include Alex). Also, three of these seasons did not see one tropical storm take place in the Gulf - 1962, 1981, and 1991. But in the 14 years coming either two years after an El Nino or one year after a Modoki, each year has seen at least one hurricane in the Gulf, and only three years have not had a single major in the Gulf - 1989, 1996, and 2011. I will admit that Dolly in 1996 and Nate in 2011 barely qualify as hurricanes, but at least were for a brief period in the Gulf nonetheless. But in any event, your chances of one major hurricane in the Gulf are a little over twice as high in a second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki, than in any other season.
But what happened in 1989, 1996, and 2011? I was intrigued to find out these results compared to the other eleven years. It turns out that 1989 was a fairly typical year, and three storms hit the Gulf, with two as hurricanes. But what's more is that the Gulf very easily might have been hit by another overlooked storm that year... if not for Iris developing right behind Hugo and tracking right into its shear. That storm's remnant low actually reached the south Florida Coast, and with the steering currents in the Gulf that year, I have to think that area got really lucky in spite of Hugo that Iris didn't survive its outflow. In 1996 and 2011, the negative anomalies reached further east going slightly off the East Coast. This made it easier for long-tracking storms to re-curve a bit further east, with still one or two fairly significant storms reaching the coast, like Bertha and Fran in 1996, and Irene last year.
In short, in any year, but usually if it's the year after a Modoki or the second year after an El Nino, watch out for a fairly strong negative height anomaly over probably the Great Plains but could also go further east, and at least a decent if not fairly strong positive anomaly over the western Atlantic. This allows tropical storms and hurricanes to travel further west and if little wind shear is present and the air is unstable, big problems will usually ensue in these types of years. I have only seen 1961 (with Carla), 1975 (with Eloise), and 1992 (with Andrew) come close to this same type of pattern of the other 38 seasons that do not fit this category.
-Andrew92
Well it's been a while in the wake of an active Atlantic and all, but I have come up with some further analysis on this topic... this is long, bear with me.
As said in a previous post, the number of hurricanes to strike the United States since 1960 (excluding Isaac) is 73. 42 of these hurricanes have hit in the second year after an El Nino or first year after a Modoki - which includes 14 seasons. That's an average of 3 hurricanes a year hitting the United States in these years. Contrast that with 31 hurricans in the remaining 38 seasons, which comes to an average of 81.58 percent of all of these seasons having just one landfall. In other words, if it's not the second year after an El Nino or first year after a Modoki, every fifth such year on average does not see a hurricane strike the United States. This makes the odds of the United States getting hit by a hurricane of any category 3.68 times higher in one of these 14 years.
The numbers are even scarier for major hurricanes. I decided to define these not just by category 3 or higher in terms of maximum sustained winds, but also if the pressure was 960 millibars or lower because those storms are typically at least as potentially destructive as a category 3 as defined on that scale. The number of these kinds of storms hitting the United States since 1960 is 34. Of these, 23 have hit in the 14 seasons that are either two years after El Nino or one year after a Modoki. That leaves 11 majors to strike in all the other 38 years. On average, one or two hurricanes strikes the United States in these 14 seasons, and about one major hurricane every three to four seasons of all the other 38 makes it there. The odds of a major hurricane striking the United States in a second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki... an astonishing 5.68 times higher!
These are scary numbers. However, I had to ask myself again, what makes these seasons stick out? It turns out, in all of these years, there has been a negative 500-mb geopotential height anomaly over usually the Midwestern states, coupled with a fairly decent positive anomaly over the western Atlantic. In essence, this leaves a steering flow to allow hurricanes that reach this far west (and many do in these seasons) to then turn to the north once they reach longitudes near the United States. Usually, the negative anomaly is over about the center of the Great Plains. Sometimes it's stronger like in years like 1996 and 2011, and sometimes it's weaker like in years like 1979 and 1985.
I also looked at the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes to take place in the Gulf of Mexico in the second year after El Nino and first year after Modoki, versus the remaining 38 seasons. The numbers go like this:
Second year after El Nino/first year after Modoki: 59/33/21 in 14 seasons
The remaining years: 97/48/17 in 38 seasons
That may sound like more tropical storms and hurricanes do their share of damage in the 38 seasons. But two more majors have happened in the 14 seasons than in all the other 38 in the Gulf. Yikes! What's more, when running the numbers, about two to three tropical storms on average reach the Gulf in the 38 latter seasons, but that's compared to roughly four storms in the 14 seasons either two years after an El Nino or one year after a Modoki. What's more is that not only is a there a higher number of storms in these 14 years, but they are more intense in the Gulf in these years too! Only a slightly higher percentage become hurricanes in these years (55.9 percent versus 49.5 percent), but many more become majors here per capita in these 14 than in all the other 38 - nearly twice as many in fact (33.9 percent in the 14 years versus 18.6 percent in the other 38). As for major hurricanes per hurricane, how about 60.6 percent in the second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki, compared to 37.5 percent in the other 38.
Here's another eyepopping stat. 13 years of the aforementioned 38 have had at least one major hurricane in the Gulf, or about one third of these years. What's more is that only four of these years (1966, 1975, 2002, and 2010) had two majors in the Gulf (remember I am also counting storms of 960 millibars or lower regardless of Saffir/Simpson category, which would include Alex). Also, three of these seasons did not see one tropical storm take place in the Gulf - 1962, 1981, and 1991. But in the 14 years coming either two years after an El Nino or one year after a Modoki, each year has seen at least one hurricane in the Gulf, and only three years have not had a single major in the Gulf - 1989, 1996, and 2011. I will admit that Dolly in 1996 and Nate in 2011 barely qualify as hurricanes, but at least were for a brief period in the Gulf nonetheless. But in any event, your chances of one major hurricane in the Gulf are a little over twice as high in a second year after El Nino or first year after Modoki, than in any other season.
But what happened in 1989, 1996, and 2011? I was intrigued to find out these results compared to the other eleven years. It turns out that 1989 was a fairly typical year, and three storms hit the Gulf, with two as hurricanes. But what's more is that the Gulf very easily might have been hit by another overlooked storm that year... if not for Iris developing right behind Hugo and tracking right into its shear. That storm's remnant low actually reached the south Florida Coast, and with the steering currents in the Gulf that year, I have to think that area got really lucky in spite of Hugo that Iris didn't survive its outflow. In 1996 and 2011, the negative anomalies reached further east going slightly off the East Coast. This made it easier for long-tracking storms to re-curve a bit further east, with still one or two fairly significant storms reaching the coast, like Bertha and Fran in 1996, and Irene last year.
In short, in any year, but usually if it's the year after a Modoki or the second year after an El Nino, watch out for a fairly strong negative height anomaly over probably the Great Plains but could also go further east, and at least a decent if not fairly strong positive anomaly over the western Atlantic. This allows tropical storms and hurricanes to travel further west and if little wind shear is present and the air is unstable, big problems will usually ensue in these types of years. I have only seen 1961 (with Carla), 1975 (with Eloise), and 1992 (with Andrew) come close to this same type of pattern of the other 38 seasons that do not fit this category.
-Andrew92
- Thread starter
- #438
I have some fresh new thoughts today on my theory about the years after an El Nino year.
For starters, I am no longer buying the "accelerated El Nino" theory that I had for 2012, as well as 1979 and 2004. I knew about 2004, and have learned since that 1979 was indeed a Modoki El Nino. 2012 was just a failed attempt, aided by a very intense pool of cold anomalies through a good chunk of the EPAC MDR, between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude.
However, that last phrase is critical to new research that has led this topic down something I hadn't thought of before. Alyono has mentioned in a number of posts recently that more than the Equator needs to be looked at in figuring out how the Atlantic might behave during hurricane season. This has prompted me to re-evaluate all the years immediately after every El Nino, whether traditional or Modoki. Some changes are warranted as second-years-after a traditional El Nino and first-years-after a Modoki event. My new list of such years is as follows, going back now to the 1950s:
1955 - Connie and Ione
1961 - Carla
1964 - Hilda (after a Modoki)
1967 - Beulah
1970 - Celia (after a Modoki)
1974 - Carmen
1979 - Frederic (this year was also a Modoki)
1980 - Allen (after a Modoki)
1985 - Elena and Gloria
1989 - Hugo
1996 - Fran
1999 - Bret and Floyd
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (after a Modoki)
2008 - Gustav and Ike
2011 - Irene
Now I will summarize what I changed on this. Anything that is unchanged will not get a mention. Also, keep in mind not all the hurricanes I mentioned above are defined as majors by wind, but would be by pressure on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Not to mention, nearly all were quite destructive anyway.
1955: This is new due to learning about 1951-53 all being classic El Nino years, and 1954 being a La Nina. While not majors by wind, Connie and Ione both had pressure below 965 mb at landfall, the recommended pressure where Category 3 would begin.
1960-61: This change is warranted because I have discovered that while it was a La Nina by definition at the Equator, 1959 had very strong warm anomalies in the EPAC MDR. As such, that makes this practically the same as a regular El Nino. 1960 is therefore replaced with 1961 as the second year after this event....which featured Carla slamming into the Texas coast. 1960's anomalies were eerily similar to other first-years-after as well, but that's another discussion entirely.
1970: After deliberating this one, calling it a second year after the 1968 event and a first year after the 1969 Modoki event, I am now only calling this a first year after a Modoki. The 1968 event just wasn't as strong or established as 1969, and the tropics were uncharacteristically quiet in 1970 compared to other second-years-after.
1980: This is because 1979 was a good Modoki event after all. The narrative doesn't break, with Allen slamming into Texas.
1984-85: I have always been skeptical about 1983 being the first year after an El Nino, given the way the Atlantic and EPAC behaved that year. Now I think I know why it was so quiet. Is it fair to call the event that year a "Modoki La Nina?" Cool anomalies were present, but only really in the Central Pacific. There were very healthy warm anomalies still closer to the coast at the Equator and near Central America, ergo at least somewhat Nino-ish that year. 1984 saw a much more classic La Nina, but if that year were a second-year-after, it would be the only one with a major hurricane grazing the US after developing from non-tropical origins (Diana, though it did make landfall a day or so later after weakening a fair amount). Elena and Gloria (pressure) were much more classical hurricanes from tropical origins in 1985.
1992: Not sure if I actually put this down in this thread, but I know I did in some others. But while there was a pool of weak cool anomalies just offshore at the Equator, the rest of the EPAC was warm, warm, warm. Maybe still technically after a good Modoki event, and Andrew helped fit the narrative in that regard, but still not a great example to set, given warm anomalies everywhere in the EPAC.
2004: Having a Modoki two years after a traditional El Nino would be one thing, like 1979. But the anomalies in the EPAC in 2003 were way too warm. Maybe not quite to El Nino status, but certainly warm-neutral, and maybe on the high end of that. I mean, the anomalies where everywhere in the EPAC in 2003. The Atlantic MDR did produce Fabian and Isabel, but the Caribbean was not active at all that year, but not quite as dead as 1959, 1983, and 1992. And 2004 was still, as we all know, a season no one would like to see ever again. This also doesn't affect 2005's status as a first year after a Modoki.
So to summarize, when the El Nino ends remains important. However, just as important is looking at all of the anomalies in the EPAC. A little isolated weak warm anomaly won't surrounded by cool ones would still be a good La Nina. But solid warm anomalies in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north probably need to be looked at like El Nino years, even if the Equator has the anomalies of a La Nina.
-Andrew92
For starters, I am no longer buying the "accelerated El Nino" theory that I had for 2012, as well as 1979 and 2004. I knew about 2004, and have learned since that 1979 was indeed a Modoki El Nino. 2012 was just a failed attempt, aided by a very intense pool of cold anomalies through a good chunk of the EPAC MDR, between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude.
However, that last phrase is critical to new research that has led this topic down something I hadn't thought of before. Alyono has mentioned in a number of posts recently that more than the Equator needs to be looked at in figuring out how the Atlantic might behave during hurricane season. This has prompted me to re-evaluate all the years immediately after every El Nino, whether traditional or Modoki. Some changes are warranted as second-years-after a traditional El Nino and first-years-after a Modoki event. My new list of such years is as follows, going back now to the 1950s:
1955 - Connie and Ione
1961 - Carla
1964 - Hilda (after a Modoki)
1967 - Beulah
1970 - Celia (after a Modoki)
1974 - Carmen
1979 - Frederic (this year was also a Modoki)
1980 - Allen (after a Modoki)
1985 - Elena and Gloria
1989 - Hugo
1996 - Fran
1999 - Bret and Floyd
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (after a Modoki)
2008 - Gustav and Ike
2011 - Irene
Now I will summarize what I changed on this. Anything that is unchanged will not get a mention. Also, keep in mind not all the hurricanes I mentioned above are defined as majors by wind, but would be by pressure on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Not to mention, nearly all were quite destructive anyway.
1955: This is new due to learning about 1951-53 all being classic El Nino years, and 1954 being a La Nina. While not majors by wind, Connie and Ione both had pressure below 965 mb at landfall, the recommended pressure where Category 3 would begin.
1960-61: This change is warranted because I have discovered that while it was a La Nina by definition at the Equator, 1959 had very strong warm anomalies in the EPAC MDR. As such, that makes this practically the same as a regular El Nino. 1960 is therefore replaced with 1961 as the second year after this event....which featured Carla slamming into the Texas coast. 1960's anomalies were eerily similar to other first-years-after as well, but that's another discussion entirely.
1970: After deliberating this one, calling it a second year after the 1968 event and a first year after the 1969 Modoki event, I am now only calling this a first year after a Modoki. The 1968 event just wasn't as strong or established as 1969, and the tropics were uncharacteristically quiet in 1970 compared to other second-years-after.
1980: This is because 1979 was a good Modoki event after all. The narrative doesn't break, with Allen slamming into Texas.
1984-85: I have always been skeptical about 1983 being the first year after an El Nino, given the way the Atlantic and EPAC behaved that year. Now I think I know why it was so quiet. Is it fair to call the event that year a "Modoki La Nina?" Cool anomalies were present, but only really in the Central Pacific. There were very healthy warm anomalies still closer to the coast at the Equator and near Central America, ergo at least somewhat Nino-ish that year. 1984 saw a much more classic La Nina, but if that year were a second-year-after, it would be the only one with a major hurricane grazing the US after developing from non-tropical origins (Diana, though it did make landfall a day or so later after weakening a fair amount). Elena and Gloria (pressure) were much more classical hurricanes from tropical origins in 1985.
1992: Not sure if I actually put this down in this thread, but I know I did in some others. But while there was a pool of weak cool anomalies just offshore at the Equator, the rest of the EPAC was warm, warm, warm. Maybe still technically after a good Modoki event, and Andrew helped fit the narrative in that regard, but still not a great example to set, given warm anomalies everywhere in the EPAC.
2004: Having a Modoki two years after a traditional El Nino would be one thing, like 1979. But the anomalies in the EPAC in 2003 were way too warm. Maybe not quite to El Nino status, but certainly warm-neutral, and maybe on the high end of that. I mean, the anomalies where everywhere in the EPAC in 2003. The Atlantic MDR did produce Fabian and Isabel, but the Caribbean was not active at all that year, but not quite as dead as 1959, 1983, and 1992. And 2004 was still, as we all know, a season no one would like to see ever again. This also doesn't affect 2005's status as a first year after a Modoki.
So to summarize, when the El Nino ends remains important. However, just as important is looking at all of the anomalies in the EPAC. A little isolated weak warm anomaly won't surrounded by cool ones would still be a good La Nina. But solid warm anomalies in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north probably need to be looked at like El Nino years, even if the Equator has the anomalies of a La Nina.
-Andrew92
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Wazim Khan
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