To add to that, the deep south may actually get a significant event if the cards are played right, we are still relatively far in voodoo land. But I may need to page @ColdFront to tell him the deep south may not be dead yet haha.
holy cow, and I thought I was done
Interestingly, the new 12z GFS doesn't look quite as impressive from the 500 mb map standpoint, but is lit up like a christmas tree for supercell composite over a very large area on multiple days, moreso than the 06z run. It still maintains the big longwave trough coming in, it's just not quite as robust as the 06z run.
You can kind of see the EPS ensembles trend to a more zonal flow with the second long wave starting on the 16th per the 00z run. You can make out a jet ejecting out into the usual suspects. Arkansas, LA, Mississippi, and western TN. Alabama would likely be in the action if that materialized too with a glancing blow.
It seems very often that modelled setups during May that appear to impact areas east of the Plains often end up evaporating once you get within a few days of things (moreso than in early spring). Not that this necessarily applies here, but it definitely seems like a trend, and might be related to the same statistical biases that can cause the various long-range experimental ML probabilities to spit out aggressive numbers that never come to fruition - perhaps it's the elevated thermodynamics this time of year, I dunno.
This is spot on and something I couldn’t have said better. That would be my bet, I know big long wave troughs aren’t necessarily rare in mid to late May, but it triggering an extensive outbreak east of the plains would be unique. My current guess is as we get closer the threat may ratchet up for the plains, but will fall apart for the Ohio/TN valleys
If the ensembles start picking this up there may be some smoke to this threat
It can definitely happen, but historically has been fairly rare. We fairly often will get some of the leftovers of Plains events, but those are usually relatively low-end. Granted, I would much rather May outbreaks remain rare in the Deep South, don't really wanna see what May thermos can do.
Yeah. Like I said, it’s not entirely unprecedented (one example would be June 2-3, 1990 Ohio Valley outbreak), but it’s not common and is actually rare. Another good example would be the late May 2011 high risk east of the plains.
I had a dream last night that the SPC had two 30% risks back to back for days 7 and 8
How many times has that happened. I don't think I can recall back to back 30% for days 7 and 8
Was 5/31/1985 a large longwave, or was that a different setup entirely? That one seems to stand out to me as a strange mega outbreak that occurred really late in the season, unusually displaced well into the northeast.
