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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

Can anybody tell me what this cloud cover means for storm development and the capping situation? It's wild how fast the clouds themselves are moving. My office window faces west so I've been watching it for a while.




Did some quick triangulation on Google maps and it looks like they're moving at 55-65 mph
 
cniemczura said:
Can someone give a good ELI5 on the significance of the dry line in this situation?
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The Dry line in this specific set up is going to be your main forcing mechanism to get storms. While open warm sector development is a possibility, as the dry line drudges eastward, it will cause more storms to fire.

Storms just don’t go up in a vacuum, some kind of force has to be there to nudge air parcels up
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Can anybody tell me what this cloud cover means for storm development and the capping situation? It's wild how fast the clouds themselves are moving. My office window faces west so I've been watching it for a while.




Did some quick triangulation on Google maps and it looks like they're moving at 55-65 mph
Click to expand...

I think the degree of clearing across Western Iowa is quite notable. I think it's becoming much more likely with this clearing that we see the cap breached later this afternoon in SW Iowa.

There's still a good gap right now between the initiating storms in SW MN and the clouds to the east as well, although the warm sector does appear to be a bit more pinched up there at the moment. WAA and that slight clearing ahead of these maturing storms will play a pivotal role in how significant these storms get as the afternoon progresses.
 
Honestly I have never been so sure on the outcome of a setup - especially considering storms have already fired.

COD-GOES-East-subregional-N_Iowa.radar.20250428.185500.gif-over=map-bars=none.gif

At face value, this line of storms across MN have been maturing well both on radar and satellite. Radar suggests a semi-discrete supercell exists near Wilmont, MN.

1745867252258.png

The environment modelled in about 1-2 hours time ahead of this cluster is pretty ridiculous. Not only is a CIN free, 3000j/kg of CAPE forecast, but the hodograph is almost ideally shaped with a nearly 50kt storm relative inflow, and sickle shape in the 0-3km layer. I know there is "just" 270 SRH in the inflow layer, but in historical cases with robust thermodynamics and this particular hodograph shape (strong SR inflow, sickle, well vented aloft), the results are more often than not concerning.

Assuming we do get supercells which are at least somewhat discrete, with fully surface based mesocyclones, I would expected a corridor of intense-violent tornado potential through S MN over the next few hours. However based on the radar evolution so far I wouldn't say that's is a certainty... yet.

Pretty much a perfect example of a high-end nowcasting day.
 
Schoeppeya said:
This is exactly the type of initiation/storm structure I was expecting with surface winds basically parallel to the boundary, winds do look more backed east of the dryline so we will see if they can become more isolated.
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I noticed that as well, kind of thin and strung out in a line. However, I stopped writing off that storm mode after Greenfield last year
 
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