Kds86z
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- 4,484
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
I use Kamala site. Quicker
-
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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30
- Thread starter MMWX
- Start date
I use Kamala site. Quicker
I'm so confused... it says updated at 12:37:05 UTC at the top but the discussion says this:
The site's just really slow I guess. It takes a bit of time after it says it updates before it actually shows the update but it's taking a lot longer than usual for some reason.
Edit: it just updated.
SPC AC 281623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK
INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.
...Upper MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper
trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level
winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley.
Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is
evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and
evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will
result in scattered intense thunderstorms.
Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints
rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime
heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft
will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold
front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central
MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent
across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large
hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather.
...Northern MO...
Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern
for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While
low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area
compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for
tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado
probabilities that far south.
...OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by
mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1647Z (12:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK
INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.
...Upper MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper
trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level
winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley.
Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is
evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and
evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will
result in scattered intense thunderstorms.
Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints
rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime
heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft
will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold
front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central
MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent
across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large
hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather.
...Northern MO...
Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern
for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While
low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area
compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for
tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado
probabilities that far south.
...OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by
mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1647Z (12:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Kds86z
Member
- Messages
- 4,484
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Is the discussion about day 1 being out over yet? Smh. Lol
Use this - the end
Use this - the end
SPC Products Page
kamala.cod.edu
Just correcting a misconception: 12:37 UTC is the same as 12:37Z, which was more than 4 hours ago
Noted and bookmarked.
Thank you! I will remember the times from now on.
Kds86z
Member
- Messages
- 4,484
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Nice! Yeah that’s all I use mostly. Quick updates for all the outlooks and watches etc .
I needed that. I can find the updates quicker now.
US_Highway15
Member
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- 635
- Location
- Michiana (IWX)
Oh sun where art thou?
Kds86z
Member
- Messages
- 4,484
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Sorry for my snappiness. Sometimes scrolling posts gives me anxiety and my wi fi is being sketch.
tornado examiner
Member
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- 2,256
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- texas
Did anyone see anything about a failure mode being that storms simply struggle to mature?
I have a chromebook being slow right now, so I know how you feel. This is also my first season watching severe weather, so I don't really know much about severe weather as I am mostly a tropical cyclone tracker. I do know some things though, and I think I know enough about this threat to be worried.
Kds86z
Member
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- 4,484
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
notsoencrypted
Member
- Messages
- 325
- Location
- Dane County, WI
The bigger issue, from what I've seen, is that for the more severe storms later on this evening, that initiation itself might be an issue, at least for supercells vs the QCLS.
Been here on this site for almost a year and a half. Inactvity in the tropical cyclone world led me here. I will join when I can. Thank you, @Kds86z
FLPanhandle91
Member
- Messages
- 5
- Location
- Florida Panhandle
Big ol chunks of 100+ 3CAPE around the dry line right now with SRH values well over 350 near the IA/MN border. Won't take long for any discrete cell to go tornadic.
- Messages
- 960
- Location
- Iowa
Accidentally posted this is Severe Weather 2025 earlier.
If you want to see a textbook example of an overreliance on models, just look at our most popular local weather station here in Iowa this morning. Completely underselling the threat. This is the same station that was focusing on a different storm as a tornado entered Greenfield last year. I hope this doesn't make people overly complacent.
If you want to see a textbook example of an overreliance on models, just look at our most popular local weather station here in Iowa this morning. Completely underselling the threat. This is the same station that was focusing on a different storm as a tornado entered Greenfield last year. I hope this doesn't make people overly complacent.