Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[US_Highway15]

12Z HRRR continues with no dryline convection whatsoever in Iowa or southern MN through 01Z Tuesday.

Dunno if I've ever seen SPC explicitly say "The CAMs suck and we're throwing them all out" in so many words before.

I understand the whole science and the SPC's reasoning for the CAMs not putting out initation, but I'd be lying if I told you that not seeing convection still makes me feel comfortable about traveling 7+ hours for this setup tomorrow lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

STP is kinda off the charts in parts of Wisconsin.

 

[jiharris0220]

FV3 (ignoring its biases) now has CI starting at 7pm tomorrow. And this is what it models at 9pm.

Entire day run of updraft helicity on the right.

 

[Ozonelayer]

FV3 (ignoring its biases) now has CI starting at 7pm tomorrow. And this is what it models at 9pm.

Entire day run of updraft helicity on the right.
View attachment 40426View attachment 40427

That is a gut-wrenching image.

 

[US_Highway15]

FV3 (ignoring its biases) now has CI starting at 7pm tomorrow. And this is what it models at 9pm.

Entire day run of updraft helicity on the right.
View attachment 40426View attachment 40427

This seems a bit more practical

 

[Kds86z]

See this seems a bit more practical.

 

[AJS]

I’m still relatively an amateur, but when looking the models, I was particularly shocked at how strong the LLJ was.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[AJS]

FV3 (ignoring its biases) now has CI starting at 7pm tomorrow. And this is what it models at 9pm.

Entire day run of updraft helicity on the right.
View attachment 40426View attachment 40427

That is certainly not something you see very often.

 

[ColdFront]

4/14/12 is actually a good callback. Rich Thompson & SPC saw the Synoptics for what they were, and went with the right call.

 

[AJS]

4/14/12 is actually a good callback. Rich Thompson & SPC saw the Synoptics for what they were, and went with the right call.

If I remember correctly, 4/14/12 was the first day 2 high risk ever issued.

 

[US_Highway15]

HRW models in their 12z run are starting to show scattered convection in Iowa for tomorrow now. Waiting for RRFS's run to come in.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

4/14/12 is actually a good callback. Rich Thompson & SPC saw the Synoptics for what they were, and went with the right call.

This was a Broyles day 2 high as well.

 

[Ozonelayer]

HRW models in their 12z run are starting to show scattered convection in Iowa for tomorrow now. Waiting for RRFS's run to come in.

So now confidence in discrete supercellular activity is increasing, is a D1 HIGH risk possible? The environment certainly is HIGH risk material, and if said supercells can take advantage of the environment then that could verify as a HIGH risk.

 

[ColdFront]

This was a Broyles day 2 high as well.

Yep. I know he’s a meme and the patron saint of the online wx community, but he’s right more often than he’s wrong by far.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Even when the HRRR stubbornly refuses to convect, we can always count on the REAL supercell printer, the HRW-FV3, to come through in the clutch.

 

[ColdFront]

Even when the HRRR stubbornly refuses to convect, we can always count on the REAL supercell printer, the HRW-FV3, to come through in the clutch.

Which is a bit surprising, on the HRRR, considering how on point it’s been this year.

 

[US_Highway15]

This was a Broyles day 2 high as well.

It's almost like he knows what he's doing despite what others believe in the community.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Which is a bit surprising, on the HRRR, considering how on point it’s been this year.

Eh, it's missed a few times. It was really consistent on tornadic supercells in northern Illinois that afternoon for quite a few runs the morning of March 19, only for that to not really happen (there were a lot of tornadoes confirmed, but they were nearly all brief and associated with a QLCS).

 

[Kds86z]

Eh, it's missed a few times. It was really consistent on tornadic supercells in northern Illinois that afternoon for quite a few runs the morning of March 19, only for that to not really happen (there were a lot of tornadoes confirmed, but they were nearly all brief and associated with a QLCS).

Agree, definitely been events this year that did not come to fruition.