Severe Weather 2025

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Imma just put this here.......Take this as ya will

 

[US_Highway15]

New Day 6/7



DISCUSSION...
...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest...

Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough
over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and
Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will
extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of
strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High
Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over
the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving
into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will
transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO
Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from
western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop
along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However,
forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective
development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude
severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun.

On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into
the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong
southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest.
A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through
the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast
across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to
strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will
support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad
area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some
differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the
upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more
uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of
severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm
sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to
support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI.

 

[AJS]

Another large 15% risk area.

 

[Clancy]

Interesting signals that show some severe threats may present themselves over the Deep South during the beginning of May. Way too far out to make out anything specific, but worth watching as the time period comes closer.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Man obviously too far out to get into specifics like this but it looks like if storms can initiate on Sunday it looks like an impressive shear environment across western kansas and nebraska

 

[US_Highway15]

Few soundings pulled from central to south central Iowa for Monday, 4/28. SRH values will vary wherever you pull the soundings, but make no mistake about it, these hodographs have that classic tornadic look to them.

 

[JPWX]

Can someone explain to me what this means severe weather (tornado) wise?

To answer your question, it affects a more localized area than the broader typical ENSO states (La Nina/El Nino/Neutral) that affects the pattern globally. It has no affect on our weather across the U.S. or anywhere else besides near the coast of South America. Like I said, it's more localized. There's been more La Nina Costero (9) events than El Nino Costero. Last El Nino Costero was 2015-16 and only three before that was 1997-98, 1982-83, 1957.

 

[Atlantic]

To answer your question, it affects a more localized area than the broader typical ENSO states (La Nina/El Nino/Neutral) that affects the pattern globally. It has no affect on our weather across the U.S. or anywhere else besides near the coast of South America. Like I said, it's more localized. There's been more La Nina Costero (9) events than El Nino Costero. Last El Nino Costero was 2015-16 and only three before that was 1997-98, 1982-83, 1957.

I thought early 2017 had an El Nino Costero event?

 

[JPWX]

I thought early 2017 had an El Nino Costero event?

I stand corrected. There was. However, I don't know the indices for the Costero event designations. I've always just focused more on the broader ENSO and Modoki type events than the localized Costero

 

[joshoctober16]

To answer your question, it affects a more localized area than the broader typical ENSO states (La Nina/El Nino/Neutral) that affects the pattern globally. It has no affect on our weather across the U.S. or anywhere else besides near the coast of South America. Like I said, it's more localized. There's been more La Nina Costero (9) events than El Nino Costero. Last El Nino Costero was 2015-16 and only three before that was 1997-98, 1982-83, 1957.

it does seem to effect north America

 

[JPWX]

View attachment 40212
it does seem to effect north America

That's the typical and normal La Nina pattern. Not the Costero events

 

[TheSuckZone]

Has anyone else had issues with NWS pages and maps loading slowly or not at all lately? It's incredibly frustrating. Really hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

 

[JPWX]

Has anyone else had issues with NWS pages and maps loading slowly or not at all lately? It's incredibly frustrating. Really hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

Everything is loading fine on my end.

 

[joshoctober16]

Has anyone else had issues with NWS pages and maps loading slowly or not at all lately? It's incredibly frustrating. Really hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

i think i have issues on the site as well but i also seem to be having issues on other sites as well.

 

[Clancy]

I guess it's summer now? Hot and humid out with those classic pulse storms all over.

 

[Kds86z]

Did anyone post about Kansas? 5% probs introduced.

 

[Sharpy]

I guess it's summer now? Hot and humid out with those classic pulse storms all over.
View attachment 40217

I'll 1000% take this any day of the week over any higher-end severe weather threat. Hell, I'm fine with a severe thunderstorm warning that is similiar to a summertime storm if it doesn't cause damage. I'd be so happy with "summer" starting already. I know there's still time for this pattern to break down before it is summer, but my point stands.

 

[Kds86z]

Wow let’s go..

 

[AJS]

Wow let’s go..

Upgraded to a 5% tornado risk for today.

 

[JPWX]

North MS Tornado Stats (Updated to include early April tornadoes):
695 total
182 AM tornadoes
501 PM tornadoes
57 tornadoes both Lee and Monroe which is 8.2% average (highest count and percentage for all 22 North MS counties)