Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[wx_guy]

Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

View attachment 39005



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

View attachment 39006



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

View attachment 39010


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


View attachment 39012



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





View attachment 39013



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!

Addendum for the next few hours:

At 8 PM CDT --> The circus is ongoing in full swing. S Missouri is getting in on the action, too.



9 PM. Both Tornadoes and Flooding continue.




10 PM:





By 11 PM, the primary threat has fully transitioned to Flash Flooding, where I expect some FFE's might be possible tonight. The storm mode is now mainly linear, too.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 39019
Here's the Composite Radar without the Threat Overlay and Profiles cluttering it up. Between about 3 PM and 7PM, it's discrete party like it's 1999 in Arkansas.

Least not after dark but still..

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, new update to Day 1 incoming in a few minutes. Expect it to stay MDT, but interested to see the discussion.

 

[Maxis_s]

Addendum for the next few hours:

At 8 PM CDT --> The circus is ongoing in full swing. S Missouri is getting in on the action, too.

View attachment 39020

9 PM. Both Tornadoes and Flooding continue.


View attachment 39021

10 PM:

View attachment 39022



By 11 PM, the primary threat has fully transitioned to Flash Flooding, where I expect some FFE's might be possible tonight. The storm mode is now mainly linear, too.

View attachment 39023

Looks like there's some embedded supercells in the line that continue to produce strong tornadoes.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Dew points around mid south low 70 s now

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah, new update to Day 1 incoming in a few minutes. Expect it to stay MDT, but interested to see the discussion.

We got Thompson and Jirak. It’s out

 

[wx_guy]

So the discussion mentions the *potential* for EF2-EF3+ tornadoes but is less sharp wording than Wednesday, obviously. Will be an interesting afternoon seeing how this unfolds.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Was a much more tame discussion than I was expecting given the parameters and ceiling of the event.

 

[Keldeo]

 

[wx_guy]

Notably, the HRRR (which does factor in radar data) has a decidedly more linear mode from the get-go today, in opposition to my model. Let's see who's right.

 

[Keldeo]

 

[Maxis_s]

Notably, the HRRR (which does factor in radar data) has a decidedly more linear mode from the get-go today, in opposition to my model. Let's see who's right.



View attachment 39027

HRRR tends to become very messy as we get close to the event, especially the 15z run for some reason.

 

[tigerman29]

It looks like we have some initial cells developing out along and east of the Mississippi River. Will be curious to see what happens with them.

 

[Clancy]

Yep, little showers are forming on the northern boundary of the OWS. Will have to watch these closely.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

It's almost like Arkansas decided to mumble something under it's breath Wednesday when mother nature decided she was done. She walking back in today like "I'm sorry what was that?"

 

[Maxis_s]

Not sure which thread is appropriate for this, but here's some good news about the NOAA cuts.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

We get a break for a while after this though...

 

[Kds86z]

 

[wx_guy]

StormNet's 3 hour prediction of where we might get tornadic activity. Still a low % right now, but I suspect it'll grow rapidly.

 

[jjmitch66]

75 degrees here in Central AR. Dew point has jumped to 71. It was in the 50's about 2 hours ago. Sun started peeking through about 20 minutes ago. Not what I wanted to see today.