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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

andyhb said:
Temoeratures and dewpoints are notably rising here after dark. This is not normal and a major alarm bell for the severe threat here in the next several hours.
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Happening slightly here up in KC too, although a larger increase is expected for us as the main line moves closer. Fully expect to get woken up by the weather radio here in a few hours lol
 
US_Highway15 said:
Sure, but still very surprised, considering with this setup there's fail modes to be found quite easily. However, the ceiling is arguably high risk criteria.
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Personally, I believe the ceiling is well into high risk criteria, but the abundance of potential failure modes would have absolutely held me back from pulling the trigger on a high risk here. The ceiling for this event is really crazy though, that’s for certain.
 
slenker said:
Personally, I believe the ceiling is well into high risk criteria, but I believe the abundance of potential failure modes would have absolutely held me back from pulling the trigger on a high risk here. The ceiling for this event is really crazy though, that’s for certain.
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I guess they’re thinking they see more of the ceiling being close to being met more than anything? Always thought storm mode was one of the more bigger questions. But I guess they’re thinking otherwise.
 
I mean the latest HRRR run (05z) is being really weird with this setup compared to the outlook. The tornado risk (STP value wise) looks to be most elevated in northern IL/IN, compared to the Paducah KY region like the high risk suggests. Storm mode is mediocre at best as well:

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I honestly don’t agree with the high risk, the potential is there, but I’m not sure what they’re seeing that makes them confident enough to issue such a thing.

Obviously they’re the experts but the failure modes for this are obvious.

Guess we’ll see how it plays out, and again, I don’t disagree that the potential is there, I just don’t know where this confidence stems from.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I honestly don’t agree with the high risk, the potential is there, but I’m not sure what they’re seeing that makes them confident enough to issue such a thing.

Obviously they’re the experts but the failure modes for this are obvious.

Guess we’ll see how it plays out, and again, I don’t disagree that the potential is there, I just don’t know where the confidence stems from.
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Trey discussion to come .. lol
 
jiharris0220 said:
I honestly don’t agree with the high risk, the potential is there, but I’m not sure what they’re seeing that makes them confident enough to issue such a thing.

Obviously they’re the experts but the failure modes for this are obvious.

Guess we’ll see how it plays out, and again, I don’t disagree that the potential is there, I just don’t know where this confidence stems from.
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Confidence has to be based off kinematics alone and not from the composite model, unless SPC took into consideration the NAM, HRW FV3, and RRFS models that were more discrete.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I mean the latest HRRR run (05z) is being really weird with this setup compared to the outlook. The tornado risk (STP value wise) looks to be most elevated in northern IL/IN, compared to the Paducah KY region like the high risk suggests. Storm mode is mediocre at best as well:

View attachment 38363

View attachment 38365
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I was looking at the same thing. Where they have the high seems to be more of a linear line. I expect some supercells to be embedded or ahead of the line. Just an unusually odd forecast.
 
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