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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

I will say, with these low floor/high ceiling events, we tend to look at the worst case scenario and play it based off of that. Fail modes aren't talked about all that much on this board. That's okay. We aren't experts. But on these days, the SPC will tend to forecast on the conservative side. If an ENH overperforms, maybe there is a little backlash, but it would be a whole lot less backlash than if a HIGH busts.

I could be completely wrong, but I am doubtful about a MDT being issued for today's threat, and have been all day. Today could be nasty, but it's too conditional to break out the red in my opinion.
 
MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
I will say, with these low floor/high ceiling events, we tend to look at the worst case scenario and play it based off of that. Fail modes aren't talked about all that much on this board. That's okay. We aren't experts. But on these days, the SPC will tend to forecast on the conservative side. If an ENH overperforms, maybe there is a little backlash, but it would be a whole lot less backlash than if a HIGH busts.

I could be completely wrong, but I am doubtful about a MDT being issued for today's threat, and have been all day. Today could be nasty, but it's too conditional to break out the red in my opinion.
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Agree in general, though my thinking is that given that a metro area (OKC) might get whacked by a significant tornado at rush hour maybe communicating that potential might be worth the possibility of underperformance. But I will also admit I may be biased since I'm actually in the OKC metro and at risk from today's threat.
 
UK_EF4 said:
I'll preface this post by saying in more conditional situations it's almost always better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and today should be treated as a potential high impact day for Oklahoma.

That being said, this forum is about discussing what we think about the weather - and there are some things that make me possibly less worried about today's forecast than perhaps what's immediately apparent on the surface.

Firstly, this setup was always going to be conditional. While the trough itself is very impressive, the ejection and just-in-time moisture have cast significant doubt even until today. Height falls range between negligible and small across the dryline and warm sector. Meanwhile the core of the 300mb jet will be displaced off to the North closer to the KS/NE border region.

View attachment 38160View attachment 38161

Essentially, this means today was always going to rely on mesoscale and boundary layer features to determine convective initiation and maintenance of supercells - especially as the environment becomes quite high CIN from about 00z onwards. While models were previously less keen on convective initiation, that has changed today, with a good number of CAMS suggesting C/SW Oklahoma initiation. As usual, asking yourself "does this make sense" w.r.t CAM output, I would actually say its a "yes"

View attachment 38164View attachment 38165

HREF guidance nicely resolves a tongue of deeper moisture and instability coincident with lower CIN in this region. Thus, I think storms are likely to initiate in that region 21-22z. and become supercellular (possibly quite quickly). However, profiles here will initially be less favorable for strong/intense tornadoes. Note the abundance of drier air, the slightly less curved low level hodograph - this appears to be a major hailer sounding. The environment will not be static, however, and low level shear will soon rapidly increase to favoring EF3+ tornadoes.

But as that happens, CIN considerably increases. Supercells will have to content with an increasingly stable, low level, dry air, and strengthening shear increasing the level of entrainment (which essentially reduces the ability of the supercell to utilize the CAPE). In some setups, storms would easily be able to take advantage of increases in shear to extreme levels - but in this particular instance I have some doubts. While the different components for EF2+ tornadoes will be present at various different points of tonight, I'm not fully convinced they will all coincide.

View attachment 38166View attachment 38167

With all that being said - there will be widespread severe weather risk tonight. Storms in OK/TX/KS will likely have very large hail, and widespread strong damaging winds. There more likely than not will be tornadoes - but in terms of seeing an outbreak of stronger tornadoes, I do think OK may have just dodged a bullet. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking/being optimistic, time will tell... It's probably best to stay on the safe side and treat the forecast as dangerous nonetheless. I trust everyone on here is more than smart enough to follow official tornado safety guidance properly.

Tomorrow though, looks extremely concerning... and as I finish typing this all out I see the upgrade to D2 MDT on the SPC page.
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I disagree. Models show storms initiating early enough in the day to be within that window of prime real estate of limited cap and adequate thermos. I think shear will increase as the storms already have rooted as surface based. I would be less concerned if the initiation were closer to sunset and after, as the cap building in would possibly shorten the storms times to mature and root themselves. But even then, all it takes is one of the cells to root.
 
MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
I will say, with these low floor/high ceiling events, we tend to look at the worst case scenario and play it based off of that. Fail modes aren't talked about all that much on this board. That's okay. We aren't experts. But on these days, the SPC will tend to forecast on the conservative side. If an ENH overperforms, maybe there is a little backlash, but it would be a whole lot less backlash than if a HIGH busts.

I could be completely wrong, but I am doubtful about a MDT being issued for today's threat, and have been all day. Today could be nasty, but it's too conditional to break out the red in my opinion.
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But isn’t it better to overperform rather than underperform? Especially regarding preparedness.
 
ColdFront said:
You can’t keep score in weather, but Trey’s analysis on events have historically been spot on, so I always look forward to his videos on events.
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Trey's not perfect, but he lost some brownie points from me for saying that on 3/19, the tornado threat was maximized around the IA/IL border. Again, we're not perfect, but it was a bold prediction. Still love his synopsis videos.
 
Ebaad Jaffery said:
But isn’t it better to overperform rather than underperform? Especially regarding preparedness.
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Is it better for a storm to overperform than underperform? I don't think that's what you're asking.

I think you're asking strictly about preparedness. In a bubble, yes the general public needs to take every system seriously, but the "Cried Wolf" syndrome is very much a real thing. If you call for a MDT or HIGH and it doesn't verify, people aren't going to pay attention to the next MDT or HIGH. That is a very dangerous thing. A HIGH almost cannot bu$t. If a HIGH bu$ts, it is a very good thing short term, but less people will take a HIGH seriously long term. It's why you'll only see that issued on slam dunk events.

I am focused on the interaction between the public and weather outlets. I'd love to do some research on it before I finish my undergrad and I hope to go into a weather communication field when I'm out of college.
 
MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
Is it better for a storm to overperform than underperform? I don't think that's what you're asking.

I think you're asking strictly about preparedness. In a bubble, yes the general public needs to take every system seriously, but the "Cried Wolf" syndrome is very much a real thing. If you call for a MDT or HIGH and it doesn't verify, people aren't going to pay attention to the next MDT or HIGH. That is a very dangerous thing. A HIGH almost cannot bu$t. If a HIGH bu$ts, it is a very good thing short term, but less people will take a HIGH seriously long term. It's why you'll only see that issued on slam dunk events.

I am focused on the interaction between the public and weather outlets. I'd love to do some research on it before I finish my undergrad and I hope to go into a weather communication field when I'm out of college.
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Ah. That makes sense.
 
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