• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It reminds me a bit of 2005, 2017 and of course (one storm of 2024) 2024 with Beryl as long trackers.

2017 was a very destructive year in the tropics of the North Atlantic.
 
I don't know if you guys seen it but this is AccuWeather's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast that was released on Wednesday 26th of March, 2025. I think they're underestimating the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, they're forecasting near-normal to above-normal Tropical Cyclone activity.

1743228218017.png
 
Last edited:
Right now, most of the data points to the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season being above-normal or hyperactive like the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season with plenty of impacting Tropical Cyclones. The ENSO pattern this year is very similar to 2017. Both 2017 and 2025 had an El Niño Costero in late-Winter and early spring. 2017 had a weak La Niña event that developed in September to November 2017 and models are currently favoring a weak La Niña event to develop by Autumn 2025. Both 2025 and 2017 had or have a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) was positive throughout the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season and models are favoring the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) to be positive throughout the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was negative during the peak of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season and models are favoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to be negative during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Lezak's Recurring Cycle is favoring a higher than normal chance for landfalls across the entire Gulf Coast of the U.S. (especially Texas, Louisiana, and the Panhandle of Florida), the Gulf Coast of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, portions of Central America (mainly Belize, Nicaragua and Honduras), the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Lesser Antilles (particularly the Leeward Islands and the Northern Windward Islands). Based on Precipitation anomaly forecasts from models, some of the Tropical Cyclones during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season could pass uncomfortably close to the Carolinas and Atlantic Canada, so landfalls in those areas would be possible but the chances aren't as high as the aforementioned areas. Another reason why I expect a lot of landfalls and associated impacts is because the models are forecasting below-normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near the West Coast of Africa and above-normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Central Tropical Atlantic and Western Tropical Atlantic during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. When Tropical Waves exit the West Coast of Africa, they won't develop immediately, they will more likely develop in the Central Tropical Atlantic and Western Tropical Atlantic after moving away from the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and the West Coast of Africa. This will give the Tropical Cyclones that do develop in the Central Tropical Atlantic and Western Tropical Atlantic less time to recurve out into the Subtropical Atlantic which makes a landfall on the Lesser Antilles more likely to occur.


My point is, I have a very bad feeling about the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season and I think some of the agencies/institutions will underestimate this season in their forecasts like AccuWeather.

Colorado State University will issue their first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Thursday 03rd of April, 2025.
Tropical Storm Risk will issue their second forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday 07th of April, 2025.
 
My April forecast for the Atlantic Basin ;):
 

Attachments

Last edited:
The signs for a very active season are there, but the coming storms will need to take advange of those conditions. Sometimes the environment appears as favorable as can be, but for what appears to be no reason (Most likely some environmental condition we don't understand yet) storms sometimes just don't take advange of what's there.
 
CYCLONIC FURY’S 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast:

www.cyclonicfury.com

CYCLONIC FURY'S preliminary 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: slightly above-average season likely - CYCLONIC FURY

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in exactly two months, on June 1. Although the season fell somewhat short of the most bullish forecasts, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was still very active and devastating, with a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major...
www.cyclonicfury.com www.cyclonicfury.com


1743523418129.png
 
Atlantic said:
It is still a little early so I won't commit to being hyperactive yet.
Click to expand...
Wazim Khan said:
CYCLONIC FURY’S 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast:

www.cyclonicfury.com

CYCLONIC FURY'S preliminary 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: slightly above-average season likely - CYCLONIC FURY

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in exactly two months, on June 1. Although the season fell somewhat short of the most bullish forecasts, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was still very active and devastating, with a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major...
www.cyclonicfury.com www.cyclonicfury.com


View attachment 38145
Click to expand...
JFL what an undershoot
www.cyclonicfury.com

CYCLONIC FURY'S preliminary 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: slightly above-average season likely - CYCLONIC FURY

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in exactly two months, on June 1. Although the season fell somewhat short of the most bullish forecasts, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was still very active and devastating, with a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major...
www.cyclonicfury.com www.cyclonicfury.com
 
Bruh... I understand where they are coming from, there is little to no chance of predicting a very active season this far out. But the ACE is a little too low I feel.
 
Atlantic said:
Bruh... I understand where they are coming from, there is little to no chance of predicting a very active season this far out. But the ACE is a little too low I feel.
Click to expand...
And of course if you critique them they'll call us "muh weenies".
JFL at their 2019 prediction BTW
my numerology has 18-10-5, 190 ACE
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top