ACE is now 221.6 for the current season (2024-25). We will likely surpass the 1999-2000 season here soon.
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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
Courtney is now at 70 kts (80 mph). The JTWC is expecting Courtney to peak at 90 kts (105 mph) as of the most recent advisory. There is a large spread in the models in the possible peak intensity of Courtney with models suggesting a peak anywhere from 70 kts to 120 kts. I would lean in the middle and personally call for 100 kts for a peak for now.
Invest 93S (Tropical Low 28U) is now at medium chance by the JTWC:
Invest 93S (Tropical Low 28U) is now at medium chance by the JTWC:
JTWC's TCFA on Invest 93S:
BOM's forecast on 28U/93S:
And BOM's bulletin on it:
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1327 UTC 27/03/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 122.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east (084 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT
0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 27/1800: 14.0S 122.9E: 035 (070): 030 (055): 994
+12: 28/0000: 14.4S 123.2E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 992
+18: 28/0600: 14.9S 123.5E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 990
+24: 28/1200: 15.6S 123.7E: 065 (115): 040 (075): 990
+36: 29/0000: 17.0S 123.7E: 080 (150): 040 (075): 991
+48: 29/1200: 18.3S 123.6E: 095 (175): 025 (045): 998
+60: 30/0000: 19.3S 123.6E: 110 (205): 025 (045): 998
+72: 30/1200: 19.9S 124.1E: 130 (240): 020 (035): 1001
+96: 31/1200: : : :
+120: 01/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical low 28U is developing off the northwest Kimberley coast and expected
to make landfall within 24-36h.
Position based upon SSMIS microwave at 1007UTC that showed the low level
circulation to the east of deep convection, consistent with the forecast track.
Intensity 30kn based primarily on scatterometry (HY2B at 0730UTC), slightly
higher than Dvorak.
Dvorak analysis: DT=2.0 based on a ~0.2-0.3 wrap on a curved band pattern and
within degree shear pattern. Only 18h since T1 defined but MET also in the
range of 2.0 from D 24-hour trend. FI/CI 2.0/2.0. No Objective aids available
as yet.
Development Is favoured by moist low-level monsoonal inflow over high SSTs
~30-31C but is being hampered by moderate to strong easterly vertical wind
shear. Deep convection has increased west of the centre and with the southerly
movement towards a lower shear region, a more favourable environment should
lead to development prior to landfall.
The current east southeast motion is being influenced the monsoonal flow. A
subtle strengthening of the ridge to the east and south as a mid-latitude moves
away to the southeast is expected to shift the track to be southerly within 12h
towards the coast. Models are generally consistent with the track to make
landfall north of Derby Friday night or early Saturday morning. A watch point
remains for the less likely scenario suggested by some EC ensemble guidance
that suggests a track near or just west of the Dampier Peninsula that would
keep it over water on Saturday allowing it to develop further before crossing
the west Kimberley coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC.
BOM's forecast on 28U/93S:
And BOM's bulletin on it:
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1327 UTC 27/03/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 122.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east (084 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT
0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 27/1800: 14.0S 122.9E: 035 (070): 030 (055): 994
+12: 28/0000: 14.4S 123.2E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 992
+18: 28/0600: 14.9S 123.5E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 990
+24: 28/1200: 15.6S 123.7E: 065 (115): 040 (075): 990
+36: 29/0000: 17.0S 123.7E: 080 (150): 040 (075): 991
+48: 29/1200: 18.3S 123.6E: 095 (175): 025 (045): 998
+60: 30/0000: 19.3S 123.6E: 110 (205): 025 (045): 998
+72: 30/1200: 19.9S 124.1E: 130 (240): 020 (035): 1001
+96: 31/1200: : : :
+120: 01/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical low 28U is developing off the northwest Kimberley coast and expected
to make landfall within 24-36h.
Position based upon SSMIS microwave at 1007UTC that showed the low level
circulation to the east of deep convection, consistent with the forecast track.
Intensity 30kn based primarily on scatterometry (HY2B at 0730UTC), slightly
higher than Dvorak.
Dvorak analysis: DT=2.0 based on a ~0.2-0.3 wrap on a curved band pattern and
within degree shear pattern. Only 18h since T1 defined but MET also in the
range of 2.0 from D 24-hour trend. FI/CI 2.0/2.0. No Objective aids available
as yet.
Development Is favoured by moist low-level monsoonal inflow over high SSTs
~30-31C but is being hampered by moderate to strong easterly vertical wind
shear. Deep convection has increased west of the centre and with the southerly
movement towards a lower shear region, a more favourable environment should
lead to development prior to landfall.
The current east southeast motion is being influenced the monsoonal flow. A
subtle strengthening of the ridge to the east and south as a mid-latitude moves
away to the southeast is expected to shift the track to be southerly within 12h
towards the coast. Models are generally consistent with the track to make
landfall north of Derby Friday night or early Saturday morning. A watch point
remains for the less likely scenario suggested by some EC ensemble guidance
that suggests a track near or just west of the Dampier Peninsula that would
keep it over water on Saturday allowing it to develop further before crossing
the west Kimberley coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC.
The 2024-25 season is about to surpass the 1999-2000 season in ACE, with the current ACE about 0.1 ACE away from tying that season:
1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
2024-25 = 224.5 (current)
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6
1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
2024-25 = 224.5 (current)
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6
- Messages
- 2,828
- Location
- Smithville MS
If we don't see a tropical system form in the Western Pacific between now and April 10th, we will hit the 100 consecutive day mark without the first Western Pacific tropical system.
That would be two years in a row if that happens. Has that happened before?
- Messages
- 2,828
- Location
- Smithville MS
It has. 1983 and 1984. 83 went 174 days and 84 went 158 days until first system. For major category 3+ typhoons, you went 192 days in 1973 and 264 days in 1974 until the first one. 83 went 190 days and 84 went 182 days until first typhoon.
So it definitely seems to be a rare occurence indeed. I feel like the reason why the WPAC has been so quiet lately compared with the 1990s (See 1997 for an example) is because of the -PDO coupled with very warm waters off of Japan.
For a comparsion, 2024 had produced 4 global mjaors by this time, and the SHEM would have produced 2 more Major cyclones by the end of the season.
4 of the 6 Major cyclones of the 2023-24 season occured in 2024, and became the first four Global Majors of the year.
7 of the now 10 Major cyclones of the 2024-25 season have occured in 2025, and became the first 8 Global Majors of the year.
4 of the 6 Major cyclones of the 2023-24 season occured in 2024, and became the first four Global Majors of the year.
7 of the now 10 Major cyclones of the 2024-25 season have occured in 2025, and became the first 8 Global Majors of the year.
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2024 had produced 16 TCs by now
2025 has produced 22 TCs as of now.
2025's activity is ahead of 2024, which in turn 2024 at this time of the year was ahead of 2023.
The numbers of each year since 2023 globally as of now:
2023: 10/7/3
2024: 16/6/3
2025: 22/13/7
2025 has produced 22 TCs as of now.
2025's activity is ahead of 2024, which in turn 2024 at this time of the year was ahead of 2023.
The numbers of each year since 2023 globally as of now:
2023: 10/7/3
2024: 16/6/3
2025: 22/13/7
Since I last posted the ACE ranks, the 2024-25 season has moved up THREE places! The 2024-25 season is now in 12th place. With Courtney and Dianne active, and Courtney expected to remain at major cyclone status, the 2024-25 season will likely enter into the top 10 highest ACE seasons on record.
1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
2024-25 = 228.8 (Current)
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6
1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
2024-25 = 228.8 (Current)
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6
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The 2024-25 season remains in 5th place, tying two other seasons:
| 1996-97 - 33 | ||
| 1984-85, 1997-98, 1998-99 - 31 | ||
| 1983-84 - 30 | ||
| 1977-78 - 29 | ||
| 1974-75, 1977-78, 2024-25 - 28 | ||
| 1979-80, 1985-86, 1991-92, 1993-94 - 27 | ||
| 1989-90, 2007-08 - 26 | ||
| 2002-03, 2020-21 - 25 | ||
| 1980-81, 1981-82, 1985-86, 2004-05, 2008-09 - 24 | ||
| 1975-76, 1976-77, 1992-93, 1995-96, 1999-00, 2002-03, 2019-20 - 23 | ||
| 1978-79, 1986-87, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2018-19 - 22 |
Designation-wise, we have had 28 TCs form in the SHEM as of now:
01S Ancha
02S Bheki
03S Robyn
04S Chido
05S Five
06P Six
07S Dikeledi
08P Pita
09S Nine
10S Sean
11S Faida
12S Elvis
13S Vince
14S Taliah
15P Fifteen
16P Sixteen
17S Zelia
18P Alfred
19P Rae
20S Bianca
21P Seru
22S Garance
23S Honde
24S Ivone
25S Jude
26S Twenty-Six
27S Courtney
28S Dianne
01S Ancha
02S Bheki
03S Robyn
04S Chido
05S Five
06P Six
07S Dikeledi
08P Pita
09S Nine
10S Sean
11S Faida
12S Elvis
13S Vince
14S Taliah
15P Fifteen
16P Sixteen
17S Zelia
18P Alfred
19P Rae
20S Bianca
21P Seru
22S Garance
23S Honde
24S Ivone
25S Jude
26S Twenty-Six
27S Courtney
28S Dianne
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