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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

Timbertrader said:
Just reading the posts in this thread and listening to some other independent meteorologists, is it fair to say we're approaching a consensus that we're in an "active" weather pattern in the midsouth for the foreseeable future ? Looking like a stormy April to me.
ETA: I apologize if I'm asking this on the wrong forum
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Yes. Right through April by the looks of the general pattern. The way I see it, we're probably looking at rumors of threats and actual threats each week.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Here's the writeup from Matt this morning, mentioning the EURO.

"Quiet weather will continue through Friday night, and then more
ominous a low-amplitude jet stream will take shape over the CONUS
during the weekend. A small lead shortwave will eject across
Alabama on Saturday, generating showers and embedded
thunderstorms within deep southerly flow from the Gulf.

The shortwave on Saturday will act as a primer wave for a much
larger, broad 500 mb trough that will move toward the Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. Moderate to relatively high amounts of CAPE
across a large area will be present across the warm sector Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Model trends are more concerning
than 24 hours ago with the evolution of this trough and the
proximity of the upper-level support to Central Alabama. The
broad and subtle nature of the lift with this system strongly
suggests the storm mode will be in the form of supercells with
excellent surface/850 mb/500 mb crossovers. At face value the
ECMWF indicates an early morning to late morning tornado outbreak
from our western to our eastern border. At the 120 hour range, it
is too early to ring the alarm bells since subtle changes in the
evolution of the upper-level wave will have significant
implications for the threat level across Alabama.

87/Grantham"
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the what
 
Continue to be impressed by how wide of a warm sector will be in place on Sunday, basically all across the MSV, TN Valley and into the Gulf Coast. Helicity has been improving run-to-run on the GFS in terms of areal coverage, and while it's not the strongest I've ever seen, it'd be more than enough, especially in stronger pockets that keep popping up run-to-run in parts of the Midwest and Upper MSV. Additionally, a really broad area to watch, so a lot of places likely under the gun on Sunday. On Monday, it looks like more of a damaging wind event, and maybe a hail threat as well across the Southeast. However, latest 12Z GFS shows a significant improvement in helicity (sounding from NE AL; slightly contaminated but represents the environment pretty well). If that were to pan out, could definitely foresee a jump in the tornado threat on Monday. Still a lot of questions, and I would wager that the SPC is well-served to keep the threats at 15% both days until the bigger model discrepancies start to sort out, but could be a severe threat for a very wide swath of the US, and could include a supercellular threat both days. Likely will be a time to stay tuned and buckle up if you're anywhere across the eastern half of the country.
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Clancy said:
Continue to be impressed by how wide of a warm sector will be in place on Sunday, basically all across the MSV, TN Valley and into the Gulf Coast. Helicity has been improving run-to-run on the GFS in terms of areal coverage, and while it's not the strongest I've ever seen, it'd be more than enough, especially in stronger pockets that keep popping up run-to-run in parts of the Midwest and Upper MSV. Additionally, a really broad area to watch, so a lot of places likely under the gun on Sunday. On Monday, it looks like more of a damaging wind event, and maybe a hail threat as well across the Southeast. However, latest 12Z GFS shows a significant improvement in helicity (sounding from NE AL; slightly contaminated but represents the environment pretty well). If that were to pan out, could definitely foresee a jump in the tornado threat on Monday. Still a lot of questions, and I would wager that the SPC is well-served to keep the threats at 15% both days until the bigger model discrepancies start to sort out, but could be a severe threat for a very wide swath of the US, and could include a supercellular threat both days. Likely will be a time to stay tuned and buckle up if you're anywhere across the eastern half of the country.
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Thank you @Clancy !
 
Should've noted earlier that, with our fairly rich moisture in place, any preceding convection could muck up the atmosphere (at least a little bit) later in the day. However, models haven't predicted much in the way of junk convection, and additional moisture surges into the Deep South and Gulf Coast by the afternoon on Monday, ahead of the severe storms.
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For posterity's sake, GFS-based CWASP for Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Taken verbatim, Sunday's tornado risk is centered over SW TN and NE MS and over parts of GA on Monday.
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Clancy said:
For posterity's sake, GFS-based CWASP for Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Taken verbatim, Sunday's tornado risk is centered over SW TN and NE MS and over parts of GA on Monday.
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You know, right now the speed shear is not there for these hodographs, but the hodographs are favorable for tornadoes, with the impressive thermodynamics. I think the nocturnal timing with its increased shear makes the event worse than what it would be during the daytime, because the thermodynamics will still be impressive in the overnight hours. No where near as impressive speed shear as the 15th but still enough to be dangerous, any uptick if models are lowballing helicity will be even more dangerous. I think your area will get a significant chance at some bad weather if these trends hold or get stronger. I feel like it's a day too early for stronger wording but we may be getting near the threshold by tommorow to increase worry.
 
Clancy said:
For posterity's sake, GFS-based CWASP for Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Taken verbatim, Sunday's tornado risk is centered over SW TN and NE MS and over parts of GA on Monday.
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Rare to see my neck of the woods(Eastern KY) in the 65-70 contour. Not really shocking given the vast aerial expanse of the warm Sector.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
You know, right now the speed shear is not there for these hodographs, but the hodographs are favorable for tornadoes, with the impressive thermodynamics. I think the nocturnal timing with its increased shear makes the event worse than what it would be during the daytime, because the thermodynamics will still be impressive in the overnight hours. No where near as impressive speed shear as the 15th but still enough to be dangerous, any uptick if models are lowballing helicity will be even more dangerous. I think your area will get a significant chance at some bad weather if these trends hold or get stronger. I feel like it's a day too early for stronger wording but we may be getting near the threshold by tomorrow to increase worry.
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We've gotten some nasty tornadoes with those compact, sickle-shaped hodographs before. I definitely won't be sleeping on this setup if it pans out like that.
 
Afternoon update from BMX.


.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025

A trough axis located near northwest Mexico this afternoon is
progged to move across the north-central Gulf Coast region this
weekend. A few thunderstorms may be intermixed with shower
activity occurring Saturday into Saturday night.

A larger and stronger trough is forecast to affect our region
Sunday night into Monday with a threat of severe storms. Cooling
500 mb temperatures with moistening low levels should result in a
large area of moderate instability Sunday afternoon. Models show
a medium chance of CAPE maintaining at least 1,000 J/kg Sunday
night when storms arrive to our area. Mid-level lapse rates will
be steep, per forecast soundings, related to an EML (elevated
mixed layer) advected our way Sunday afternoon. Additionally, a
strongly sheared and veering wind profile is indicated alongside
a potentially favorably timed arrival of upper-level support.

This storm environment, should it materialize, would favor
vigorous and sustained storms Sunday night into Monday, including
supercells, with all hazards: tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
large hail. Check back for updates as we continue to assess new
data and trends that will ultimately dictate the magnitude of this
event.

*It`s that time of year! Residents should stay tuned for forecast
updates and review their severe weather safety plan. This
includes having a quickly accessible shelter/safe place and
methods to obtain weather alerts overnight/while sleeping.

89^GSatterwhite
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
*It`s that time of year! Residents should stay tuned for forecast
updates and review their severe weather safety plan. This
includes having a quickly accessible shelter/safe place and
methods to obtain weather alerts overnight/while sleeping.
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On that note, now's a great time to grab a NOAA Weather Radio. Just bought one for a friend who doesn't have one, and with an active April on tap, would be a very thoughtful gift for the folks in your life that could benefit from one. The newest version of Midland's flagship radio, the WR120B, has some new features now, including 3 language options for its interface and customizable alert volumes.
 
US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 37310

Sounding pulled just NE of Memphis in the latest 12z GFS model run. That hodograph is definitely concerning; atmosphere definitely capable for supercells.
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Ah yes, when I'm cherry-picking soundings I usually start with the EHI bullseye and work out from there. Probably not the best approach but it works for me.
 
With the uptrends on the models today, I'd expect to see a 30% area (roughly encompassing N MS, NW AL, W TN, etc.) soon. Definitely looks like a troubling trend, if it continues. In the pattern we're in, I'm somewhat concerned the public will get weary and desensitized to the severe weather threats, especially if "last time" nothing happened at their particular place.
 
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