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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

New outlook issued. Still amazed at the size of the 15%.

IMG_7418.jpeg

Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, eaccompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk.

Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period.
 
JPWX said:
No problem whatsoever. I'm always afraid of people reading what I post getting upset. I don't want that to come across. I try to be as clear as I can in what I post with analog and personal experience. I'll be the first to tell you that I've learned a lot from folks on here and elsewhere. Yeah, I'm not the smartest meteorologist and just have a bachelor's degree. To my knowledge, me and David Moran are the only meteorologists in the field with Cerebral Palsy. When I was on social, David and I corresponded some. Heck, I remember one time I downplayed the severe weather event on social that led to the Tupelo, MS tornado in 2014. I got called out on it and for good reason. I learned from that mistake and I did apologize. That's one thing you will always get from me. If I'm wrong on something like that, I will apologize.
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I don't comment much, but I always appreciate your educational posts and love your statistics! Selfishly, I also like knowing I can count on someone to keep an eye on things to my west in the infamous big tornado corridor of East Mississippi and West Alabama.
 
Matt Grantham said:
It's pretty much just straight up supercells. :oops:
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Well that's less than ideal lol. I know the previous runs of the EURO where gungho on that solution though.

*I see what you mean on the 00z run though. Looking at the SLP and precip looked a little more congealed on COD, tropical tidbits gives the more isolated supercell look. ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Know Birmingham sounded little more concerned in their mornings discussion
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Yes I did.

Ha Ha Smile GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 
AJS said:
Yeah that Euro run looked pretty concerning across Alabama.
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Here's the writeup from Matt this morning, mentioning the EURO.

"Quiet weather will continue through Friday night, and then more
ominous a low-amplitude jet stream will take shape over the CONUS
during the weekend. A small lead shortwave will eject across
Alabama on Saturday, generating showers and embedded
thunderstorms within deep southerly flow from the Gulf.

The shortwave on Saturday will act as a primer wave for a much
larger, broad 500 mb trough that will move toward the Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. Moderate to relatively high amounts of CAPE
across a large area will be present across the warm sector Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Model trends are more concerning
than 24 hours ago with the evolution of this trough and the
proximity of the upper-level support to Central Alabama. The
broad and subtle nature of the lift with this system strongly
suggests the storm mode will be in the form of supercells with
excellent surface/850 mb/500 mb crossovers. At face value the
ECMWF indicates an early morning to late morning tornado outbreak
from our western to our eastern border. At the 120 hour range, it
is too early to ring the alarm bells since subtle changes in the
evolution of the upper-level wave will have significant
implications for the threat level across Alabama.

87/Grantham"
 
ColdFront said:
Piggybacking off of what @CheeselandSkies said, that 0Z GFS run is nasty. Those are some high CAPE values it’s throwing out.

High CAPE with good Kinematics right over top of Western KY.
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Yeah going hang around western tn. Since live there anyways. To chase , then things get right may head western Kentucky chase Sunday
 
JPWX said:
No problem whatsoever. I'm always afraid of people reading what I post getting upset. I don't want that to come across. I try to be as clear as I can in what I post with analog and personal experience. I'll be the first to tell you that I've learned a lot from folks on here and elsewhere. Yeah, I'm not the smartest meteorologist and just have a bachelor's degree. To my knowledge, me and David Moran are the only meteorologists in the field with Cerebral Palsy. When I was on social, David and I corresponded some. Heck, I remember one time I downplayed the severe weather event on social that led to the Tupelo, MS tornado in 2014. I got called out on it and for good reason. I learned from that mistake and I did apologize. That's one thing you will always get from me. If I'm wrong on something like that, I will apologize.
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Reading about you in What Stands in a Storm, you were a high school kid then and I was 25 when the outbreak happened and didn't read the book until several years later, so it felt like we were from completely different generations. Now that we're both in our 30s (at least for another 10 months!), the gap doesn't feel so huge. That's really cool and inspiring that you followed your dream of growing up to be a meteorologist.
 
Just reading the posts in this thread and listening to some other independent meteorologists, is it fair to say we're approaching a consensus that we're in an "active" weather pattern in the midsouth for the foreseeable future ? Looking like a stormy April to me.
ETA: I apologize if I'm asking this on the wrong forum
 
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