Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[US_Highway15]

Not to be that guy, but watching the ABC 33/40 coverage has been frustrating. Whoever is with James Spann has been refusing to use the SRV (Storm Relative Velocity) product when looking at storms, and have just sat on the Velocity product, which has been misleading when analyzing rotation on the storm just north of Union. There's such a tight couplet on it, but the product they're using has not picked it up.

 

[AJS]

That storm west of Tuscaloosa is continuing to worry me. There was a slight CC drop just a moment ago.

 

[Teche]

It seems the tornado near Seminary dissipated about a minute ago as it passed kind of into Gandsi. Here's the approximate path the TDS took

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That storm west of Tuscaloosa is continuing to worry me. There was a slight CC drop just a moment ago.

Was likely radar clutter. The storms a bit funky right now. Needs to clear out its inflow notch again.

 

[cg9450]

Personally, I'm glad that that's happening. It reduces the danger for everyone in middle TN, and reduces the splitting of attention with fewer storms to track.

You rang?

 

[AJS]

Was likely radar clutter. The storms a bit funky right now. Needs to clear out its inflow notch again.

Noticed that just now. No doubt it could produce something if it gets it’s act together.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

After its earlier-day flip-floppage, HRRR now wants more intense UH streaks over W GA. Models are only so valuable, but worth noting this.
View attachment 36235

Even the STPs look correct. it's just the instability it's getting wrong. Maybe it thinks all these insane ingredients are using up all the CAPE quickly like it would if the storms were more inland. In reality, most of the instability is probably getting pulled from the gulf. The implications of this would be that the cloud cover and lower dew points in Alabama don't really matter, because the storm is producing its own fuel.

It's pretty quiet right now though. Hopefully it stays that way.

 

[akt1985]

Right now it looks like Flash Flooding is the biggest issue for north Alabama.

 

[JayF]

The storm near Tuscaloosa looks like it is cycling.

 

[MikeP]

Am I missing something on the storm north of Athens? Not seeing anything on velocity, yet it's warned....

 

[Chris3024]

If the storm near Brilliant, AL could clear its inflow, it could take off

 

[TornadoFan]

The storm near Tuscaloosa looks like it is cycling.

Looks like it's carving out a new inflow notch.

 

[US_Highway15]

Knock on wood but all that rain in central Alabama might be sparing Birmingham. This is the current environmental readings in Birmingham. Not that impressive in regards to CAPE or STP values.

 

[JayF]

Am i missing something on the storm north of Athens? Not seeing anything on velocity, yet it's warned....

It is going to expire and probably just turn to a severe thunderstorm warning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Velocity on the Tuscaloosa storm is looking more impressive. Inflow notch more evident

 

[MikeP]

The storm near Tuscaloosa looks like it is cycling.

Yep, think yer right...

 

[sak]

i'm kinda surprised they didn't drop the high risk in the latest day 1 risk outlook, or at least shave off the northern extent of it.

 

[AJS]

Something is trying to develop.

 

[Jason Mills]

The Tuscaloosa Co. storm is about to drop, if it hasn't already.

 

[Julian]

I feel like the northern 1/3 of Alabama may have really dodged a bullet with the rain cooled air. I’m happy about it.