Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[US_Highway15]

Tuscaloosa could be in trouble shortly if this storm gets its act together.

Even if it gets it's act together, it's going to pass farther north of downtown Tuscaloosa.

 

[Tennie]

Middle TN could just never recover from this morning’s rain. Maybe had an hour or two of sunlight. I would be very surprised if anything verified within the watch zone. Possibly extreme south TN.

Personally, I'm glad that that's happening. It reduces the danger for everyone in middle TN, and reduces the splitting of attention with fewer storms to track.

 

[Clancy]

Tuscaloosa could be in trouble shortly if this storm gets its act together.

It's subtle, but it's started taking a slightly more right turn, which would take it closer to TCL proper.

 

[Teche]

The CC drop near Bassfield is greatly weakening again. Maybe the tornado lifted?

 

[AJS]

The storm west of Tuscaloosa is organizing.

 

[akt1985]

Does anyone know if the tornado warned storm headed towards Meridian, Mississippi is on the ground right now?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tight couplet in the Aliceville AL tornado warning

 

[Clancy]

Take a look at the LLLRs over Alabama right now.

 

[Richardjacks]

Inflow notch is getting larger for Aliceville AL. Dangrous storm if it wraps up.

We got to watch this storm and any interaction with this boundary setting up

 

[BamaSpaceBalloon]

It's subtle, but it's started taking a slightly more right turn, which would take it closer to TCL proper.

The northern extent of TCL is quite developed now, ie, Northport and Lake Tuscaloosa areas. I would say in recent years Northport has developed more than Tuscaloosa proper.

 

[warneagle]

Does anyone know if the tornado warned storm headed towards Meridian, Mississippi is on the ground right now?

doesn't look like there's anything on CC at the moment and I haven't seen any reports so I would say probably not.

 

[AJS]

 

[akt1985]

The Tornado Warned storm in Limestone County is not that impressive rotation wise.

 

[Gail]

The 3 hr StormNet shows the threat getting very close to the B'ham metro by 6 PM tonight, with very high probabilities of tornadic activity.


View attachment 36215

Yay - in the blue so it’s almost over for us. I feel like we’ve been under a PDS watch forever. I haven’t slept since waking up for work Friday morning, and I’m exhausted!

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

The first frame of the HRRR run shows immense CAPE then, when simulated, it almost completely disappears within 2 hours. It has been doing the same thing the last 3 or 4 runs, even though the starting cape has gone up with each run. Basically, it's showing decreasing CAPE within an hour or two, but then the following runs are showing INCREASED CAPE, so it's failing to verify even an hour or two ahead. It's almost seems like it's getting confused with the amount of energy the system is pulling up from the gulf and can't correct itself. I hope I'm wrong though, and this is actually what we see.

View attachment 36211
View attachment 36212

Here's the perfect example. I managed to pull the 19z prediction from the 18z HRRR run before it updated.




Now here's 19z on the 19z run



It's completely failing to calculate instability

 

[Tennie]

People in Seminary, MS, should be in their shelters IMMEDIATELY!

 

[Teche]

I think the supercell near Seminary still has a tornado. CC hasn't been dropping any further and it seems to just be compact. If there is a tor, it'll miss Seminary but may impact Moscow if it doesn't dissipate by then.

Edit: Guess so

 

[Blountwolf]

VIL on the west AL storm. No doubt where that one is.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Aliceville AL tornado warning ingested some junk convection let's see if it strengthens some more soon.

 

[Clancy]

After its earlier-day flip-floppage, HRRR now wants more intense UH streaks over W GA. Models are only so valuable, but worth noting this.