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- 631
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- Columbus, OH
We’ve discussed how this giant rain shield may stabilize things, but what about the outflow any of these preceding storms leave behind? Is that a potential horror show waiting to happen?
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
jiharris0220
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- 1,577
- Location
- Wichita Falls
3500j/kg cape beginning to show up in southern Louisiana, keep in mind it’s only 10am.
jiharris0220
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- 1,577
- Location
- Wichita Falls
New mesoscale outlook, strap up folks.
US_Highway15
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- 635
- Location
- Michiana (IWX)
Mesoscale Discussion statement from SPC:
"A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be
issued soon. A tornado outbreak with multiple intense to violent
long-track tornadoes is likely.
DISCUSSION...Morning observational data continues to support a
likely tornado outbreak today across parts of eastern Louisiana and
Mississippi. 12Z RAOBS from LCH and LIX indicate rich low-level
moisture featuring a mean mixing ratio of 14 to 15 beneath a steep
EML with mid-level lapse rates of 8 to nearly 9 C/km. This
thermodynamic profile, combined with broken cloud cover across
Louisiana and southern Mississippi suggest substantial heating will
occur and strong instability will be present for much of the day
today. The EML will play a critical role in the storm mode today.
Discrete supercells are anticipated given the EML which will
suppress more widespread convection and also provide enough
mid-level dry air for potentially multiple well-organized supercells
in close proximity through the day. In addition, 12Z RAOB data along
the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of
historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.
Strong shear is already present across Louisiana and Mississippi
this morning with effective shear 40 to 60 knots at the LIX/LCH/JAN
12Z RAOBs. However, shear will increase further through the morning
as mid-level flow strengthens with the mid-level jet streak
overspreading more of the warm sector and with secondary surface
cyclogenesis in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Early evidence of this
secondary low-pressure center has already been observed with a
sub-995mb surface low analyzed northwest of Little Rock, Arkansas at
15Z. This surface low will continue to deepen and consolidate
through the day which will keep flow backed across the warm sector
and result in further strengthening of the already strong low-level
jet. By mid-afternoon, a low-level jet of 65 to 70 knots is forecast
with corresponding 0-1km SRH of 300 to 500 m2/s2. The presence of
nearly pure streamwise vorticity in the lowest 1km will create an
environment extremely conducive to the stretching of the ambient
low-level vorticity.
Confluence bands across Louisiana this morning likely represent the
initial supercell initiation zone for the storms of greatest concern
this afternoon. Multiple bands of supercells are possible. Once
mature supercells develop in the environment south of the messier
convection, there should be very little to interrupt their longevity
through the afternoon.
Given the aforementioned factors, many discrete supercells are
expected in an environment which is extremely conducive to tornadic
activity. Therefore, a tornado outbreak appears imminent with the
potential for multiple, intense to violent long track tornadoes from
mid-day through this evening across eastern Louisiana and much of
Mississippi. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will
be issued soon to address this threat."
"A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be
issued soon. A tornado outbreak with multiple intense to violent
long-track tornadoes is likely.
DISCUSSION...Morning observational data continues to support a
likely tornado outbreak today across parts of eastern Louisiana and
Mississippi. 12Z RAOBS from LCH and LIX indicate rich low-level
moisture featuring a mean mixing ratio of 14 to 15 beneath a steep
EML with mid-level lapse rates of 8 to nearly 9 C/km. This
thermodynamic profile, combined with broken cloud cover across
Louisiana and southern Mississippi suggest substantial heating will
occur and strong instability will be present for much of the day
today. The EML will play a critical role in the storm mode today.
Discrete supercells are anticipated given the EML which will
suppress more widespread convection and also provide enough
mid-level dry air for potentially multiple well-organized supercells
in close proximity through the day. In addition, 12Z RAOB data along
the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of
historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.
Strong shear is already present across Louisiana and Mississippi
this morning with effective shear 40 to 60 knots at the LIX/LCH/JAN
12Z RAOBs. However, shear will increase further through the morning
as mid-level flow strengthens with the mid-level jet streak
overspreading more of the warm sector and with secondary surface
cyclogenesis in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Early evidence of this
secondary low-pressure center has already been observed with a
sub-995mb surface low analyzed northwest of Little Rock, Arkansas at
15Z. This surface low will continue to deepen and consolidate
through the day which will keep flow backed across the warm sector
and result in further strengthening of the already strong low-level
jet. By mid-afternoon, a low-level jet of 65 to 70 knots is forecast
with corresponding 0-1km SRH of 300 to 500 m2/s2. The presence of
nearly pure streamwise vorticity in the lowest 1km will create an
environment extremely conducive to the stretching of the ambient
low-level vorticity.
Confluence bands across Louisiana this morning likely represent the
initial supercell initiation zone for the storms of greatest concern
this afternoon. Multiple bands of supercells are possible. Once
mature supercells develop in the environment south of the messier
convection, there should be very little to interrupt their longevity
through the afternoon.
Given the aforementioned factors, many discrete supercells are
expected in an environment which is extremely conducive to tornadic
activity. Therefore, a tornado outbreak appears imminent with the
potential for multiple, intense to violent long track tornadoes from
mid-day through this evening across eastern Louisiana and much of
Mississippi. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will
be issued soon to address this threat."
MikeP
Member
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- 339
- Location
- Crestwood South, Bham
Looks like the capping is starting to lose out....
US_Highway15
Member
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- 635
- Location
- Michiana (IWX)
Like I said earlier, this is one of those setups where you just have to throw the rapid refresh models out of the windows and focus on the *now*
UpperLevelLOL
Member
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- 361
- Location
- Edmond, OK
Thanks for making us take a second to read this, you're absolutely right. They stress that they believe storm mode will stay discrete and we're in store for an historic afternoon.
Equus
Member
Well add that MD to the hall of fame folder for sure, very high end wording
- Messages
- 400
- Location
- Cullman, AL (3 miles W of Downtown)
Holy, that is some strong wording on the MCD. That airmass will more that likely advect northeastward into Alabama
Kds86z
Member
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- 4,333
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Yeah definitely will prob be one of top of year, if not THE
MikeP
Member
- Messages
- 339
- Location
- Crestwood South, Bham
My temp has come up 5 degrees is basically an hour - 71 now.
Equus
Member
SPC is going all in on this, might get a 45 hatch corridor on the next outlook if that continues
CheeselandSkies
Member
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- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
Really shocked we have not seen a TDS with that MS warning. If there's any silver lining, Rolling Fork is no longer in the polygon.
Absolutely, and probably very soon, too. The Disco from KATL is a bit lame, though.
OHWX97
Member
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- 1,254
- Location
- Maineville, Ohio
Cameron Nixon just wrote a fantastic thread about today's setup and the possible caveats.
Kds86z
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- 4,333
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- Greencastle, PA
Not on ground?
TornadoFan
Member
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- 5,237
- Location
- Colorado
If that MD doesn't send chills down your spine, I don't know what will.
Lost in the flurry of activity on social media, but one follow said cells earlier in the day would likely take time to put things down (though once they get going, yikes). I'll try to find it if I can.