Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Smokedevil]

We've got ( I'm guessing here ) about 30 to 35 mph winds here out of the south
(in Monroe county ms )

 

[ColdFront]

Observed sounding from LCH in Louisiana. Just an absolute bonkers thermodynamic profile this early.

 

[tornado examiner]

I weep for those desperate for a cold front Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency when that is still nearly stationary this morning and the sun is out already.

 

[VolRunner393]

The smithville Mississippi EF5 from April 27 2011 was formed when the supercell that spawned it moved over an outflow boundary left over from a morning line of storms, that lowered the supercell’s base and dramatically increased its inflow. The boundary basically super charged an already EF5 capable storm and lead to the most violent tornado of all time.

That’s the best way I can explain it.

Long story short, outflow boundaries are bad.

Ok, I understand now. Thank you. When local tv meteorologists talk about morning rains inhibiting severe chances later on, it confuses me when I see that it can actually make severe threats worse later on.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Everything appears on track and I hope everyone stays safe today. Meso and microscale processes will determine how bad it is, but I haven’t found many flies in the ointment this morning to preclude a significant tornado outbreak. For the Georgia people, don’t let your guard down tonight. The tornado and damaging wind threat, especially across North Georgia, is as high as we’ve seen it in a long time.

 

[SmokeEater]

Morning everyone, don't know if this was posted yet, but I don't think I've ever seen this in a statement before. Multiple destructive EF3-EF4+ tornadoes are likely...

 

[tornado examiner]

I weep for those desperate for a cold front Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency when that is still nearly stationary this morning and the sun is out already.

I didn’t know that b-word was replaced. Whoops…
I’m not in trouble for that am I?

 

[Tanner]

Well, here we are. Really the main "fail mode" I can see at this juncture is overcrowding in the warm sector.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sun is out in northeast Jefferson county/Southwest Blount AL. Still some very light clouds that are getting burned through. It's about to be very sunny and muggy with this early morning rain evaporating

 

[Brice W]

Sun is out in northeast Jefferson county/Southwest Blount AL. Still some very light clouds that are getting burned through. It's about to be very sunny and muggy with this early morning rain evaporating

Yikes stay safe today.

 

[tornado examiner]

If they spc is confident in increased discrete supercell coverage I could still see a 45% tornado risk being added.

 

[Smokedevil]

That cell southwest of Winona ms bears watching. It has exploded.

 

[Atomz]

Everything appears on track and I hope everyone stays safe today. Meso and microscale processes will determine how bad it is, but I haven’t found many flies in the ointment this morning to preclude a significant tornado outbreak. For the Georgia people, don’t let your guard down tonight. The tornado and damaging wind threat, especially across North Georgia, is as high as we’ve seen it in a long time.

Is it possible that the MDT is extended to cover more of metro ATL?

 

[ColdFront]

If they spc is confident in increased discrete supercell coverage I could still see a 45% tornado risk being added.

I’ll actually be surprised if we see that. Especially with the weird linear quirkiness the CAMs are latching onto.

Not that I’m saying that’s a fail mode, but it usually has to be a wide open slam dunk for a 45.

 

[Clancy]

Is it possible that the MDT is extended to cover more of metro ATL?

Certainly, though I would venture to guess SPC will want to see how convection starts evolving early this afternoon before doing that.

 

[Chris3024]

You can see the turning of the winds with height when viewing SPC's MesoAnalysis page. They go from SSE at the surface to SSW at 500mb

 

[Atomz]

Certainly, though I would venture to guess SPC will want to see how convection starts evolving early this afternoon before doing that.

Alright. Definitely got that feeling last night watching those semi-discrete cells plow right through the metro

 

[weunice]

Sun peeking out regularly here amidst the wind and moving clouds -- it is going to get warm in South Louisiana. Its obvious at this point.

 

[Clancy]

Not what you like to see at 9 AM. Best case scenario would be linear/broken line, which would still be very dangerous but better than the other outcome, which would be widespread activity in the warm sector. HRRR runs have been basically re-introducing discrete activity across AL.

 

[sak]

…how on earth did yesterday underperform?! And today is the high end of the high end. Trends continue to look historic.

perhaps he meant in this part of the world. it definitely underperformed back in louisiana and in the jackson, memphis, birmingham, and huntsville markets.

granted, the better dynamics were always expected to be a bit north/northwest but expanding the moderate risk way down into mississippi and the PDS (i think?) watch across TN/KY didn’t really materialize.

there was really only one big time storm in the entire area south and east of a line from shreveport LA to dyersburg TN