Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[slenker]

Yeah can we stop talking about who said what and what says what? We still have a dangerous situation unfolding right now. Lock in.

I think it’s completely OK to discuss the “flies in the ointment” without writing off the threat entirely. Bottom line is this is a high risk day and we can clearly see it because of what is occurring right now.

 

[Clancy]

Large doughnut hole is now visible. Moving north of Lake Providence at 45 MPH.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Personally didn’t expect a repeat of 4/27 now or maybe ever. Still a few violent tornadoes is bad news. And the outbreak we had last night. Definitely system is something. Shall see

And to be clear, if/when this doesn't hit 4/27 levels it doesn't mean the forecast was bad or overhyped or a b.u.s.t. Even the HRRR going linear shows a bad, bad outbreak, just not as high ceiling.

 

[ColdFront]

I’d watch those cells North of Baton Rouge that are firing right now

 

[AJS]

Large doughnut hole is now visible. Moving north of Lake Providence at 45 MPH.
View attachment 36017

It actually looks so similar to the Rolling Fork supercell from March 24, 2023.

 

[MoonBaby]

Power napped and now I’m back. It’s very windy and still very cloudy in Tuscaloosa so far this morning.

 

[buckeye05]

Yeah can we stop talking about who said what and what says what? We still have a dangerous situation unfolding right now. Lock in.

Yes it’s dangerous, but it’s also an evolving situation and that is being discussed.

 

[US_Highway15]

Got some new cellular storms that have fired up north of Baton Rouge.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Large doughnut hole is now visible. Moving north of Lake Providence at 45 MPH.
View attachment 36017

That's a very strong tornado if it's down , in wondering if it is down because the beam heights are high

 

[Clancy]

Got some new cellular storms that have fired up north of Baton Rouge.

Yep, confluence bands are popping. Bears close watching through the afternoon.

 

[Tennie]

IIRC, even the worst of the worst outbreaks all had failure modes. Typically, what you need to get a violent outbreak is not everything going right, but rather having enough come together just right to basically sweep aside any potential failure modes.

We'll just need to see whether today ends up turning out to be one of those types of events...

 

[tornado examiner]

Yep, confluence bands are popping. Bears close watching through the afternoon.
View attachment 36019

Already rotating too

 

[Equus]

Trying to aim for Rolling Fork again before we even hit 11am is quite the way to start the day

 

[hurricaneguy]

Not something you see every year. EF4 in the picture

 

[AJS]

That Lake Providence storm is either producing a tornado or is about to produce. Very obvious couplet on radar.

 

[tornado examiner]

Even more of a new record on the tornado wind estimates

 

[NorthBamaWX]

New watch coming

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not something you see every year. EF4 in the picture

Thats. A very strongly wording mesoscale discussion. Wow.

 

[Tennie]

If it maintains roughly the heading given in the warning, it could miss Rolling Fork by a (somewhat) comfortable margin. On the other hand, the towns of Mayersville, Grace, and Nitta Yuma (among others, perhaps) will need to watch out!

 

[US_Highway15]

Not something you see every year. EF4 in the picture

That's truly a graphic to behold. Strap in y'all.