Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UncleJuJu98]

00z WRF-ARW is rolling out currently.

 

[ColdFront]

NAM 3KM may be getting in on the early showers phase too. Not a MCS, but some precip none the less

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Just because the rain moves out doesn’t pop the sun out five minutes after the rain is gone. But it’s one run, let’s see if the mcs even happens

part of the fast recovery is due to like a 70kt llj shlurping up stuff

 

[Bulkshear]

00z HRRR is a major outbreak both tomorrow and Saturday. Absolutely insane run.

Do you think the convection will materialize and how far north do you see the significant tornado threat getting on Saturday at this point?

 

[Tennie]

Tonight countless people across the forecast areas are either getting getting ready for bed, are already in bed, or will be going to bed not too long from now. Let's all pray that the next couple nights or so do not end up being the last night alive for many!

 

[JPWX]

Tonight countless people across the forecast areas are either getting getting ready for bed, are already in bed, or will be going to bed not too long from now. Let's all pray that the next couple nights or so do not end up being the last night alive for many!

Really happy to see a post like this

 

[AJS]

I’m honestly getting sick to my stomach with what may be in store this weekend. Im sending prayers to everyone who’s in the forecasted path of these storms and to anyone with loved ones in the target area.

 

[ColdFront]

NAM 3KM bit of a weird run so far

 

[Tanner]

HRRR makes me think of April 28, 2014. String of pearl scenario.

 

[Maxis_s]

NAM 3KM bit of a weird run so far

Doesn't really seem to convect anything other than a few showers. Makes me wonder if that morning MCS will still occur.

 

[Clancy]

NAM 3KM bit of a weird run so far

NAM 3km is definitely weird. It's like it forgot to initiate anything but light showers. Almost curious if something is a bit wrong with the 00Z data, or if they're actually onto something.

 

[andyhb]

Do you think the convection will materialize and how far north do you see the significant tornado threat getting on Saturday at this point?

I tend to think there will be some interference on the north end, how far south that extends is anyone's guess at this point. I do however think there also should be recovery barring a massive Gulf Coast washout. The low level wind fields here are too strong to hold off forever.

 

[ColdFront]

Doesn't really seem to convect anything other than a few showers. Makes me wonder if that morning MCS will still occur.

Yeah, I mean there’s hardly anything in Alabama.

 

[Tanner]

00z NAM 3K suppresses the threat a bit from northern MS/AL

 

[Tennie]

Doesn't really seem to convect anything other than a few showers. Makes me wonder if that morning MCS will still occur.

We'll just have to watch the hourly CAMs to see if morning crapvection/MCSs end up trending, then go from there.

 

[Clancy]

Compare NAM 3km to normal NAM. The difference in what each prescribes for MS/AL is very clear.

 

[ColdFront]

Zero idea what happened with the NAM 3KM on that run lol. I’m not qualified enough to say it, but I want to throw that run out

 

[CheeselandSkies]

OK NAM, that will do (Friday in SE MO/NE AR):

 

[Clancy]

Zero idea what happened with the NAM 3KM on that run lol. I’m not qualified enough to say it, but I want to throw that run out

Yeah. 00Z HRRR, while different from what we've been seeing, makes sense. But the Hi-Res NAM feels like it's out to lunch.

 

[lake.effect]

Well these runs certainly didn't answer any questions lol