Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[AJS]

Alabama weather blog mentions a few violent, long track tornadoes possible View attachment 35294

I’m predicting a high risk for Saturday.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

I’m predicting a high risk for Saturday.

That's historically what Day 3 MDTs turn into, yes

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I mean, BMX already mentioning an outbreak in their morning AFD…

“As such, a Level
4/5 Moderate risk has been introduced across much of Central Alabama
in response to growing concern of intense supercells, and a severe
weather outbreak now appears likely.”

*gulp*

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

That's historically what Day 3 MDTs turn into, yes

only like 2-3 d3 mdts didn't go high, all past 2020, starting with Easter

 

[Clancy]

Wow at SREF's STP, well after dark, no less.

 

[ColdFront]

It’s at the very end of the NAM 3KM’s range so always take it with a grain of salt, but right at 18Z on Saturday you can see storms firing around Louisiana and Arkansas off the dryline. Then out in central Mississippi you can already see specks popping up out in the OWS.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

It’s at the very end of the NAM 3KM’s range so always take it with a grain of salt, but right at 18Z on Saturday you can see storms firing around Louisiana and Arkansas off the dryline. Then out in central Mississippi you can already see specks popping up out in the OWS.

:/.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Reed timmer is going to try and shoot a rocket into a tornado this event im guessing lol

 

[Equus]

Good morning, I see things still look terrifying

 

[cincywx]

Latest from Spann.

 

[jiharris0220]

I’m noticing the hrrr is over mixing the surface dews by a substantial amount.

As in, a huge swath of 60+ dew points being advected north just spontaneously dries out as radiative heating occurs.

The hrrr is well known to do these sorts of things, so expect it to constantly underestimate moisture content throughout the entire event.

 

[ColdFront]

Latest from Spann.

Love Spann. Sounds like those seasonal allergies are hitting him too haha

 

[tornado examiner]

We’re already at 90 pages…oof

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

We’re already at 90 pages…oof

I'm too new and don't know the norms around here yet, but maybe we should make a new thread tomorrow morning for the actual event itself?

 

[andyhb]

No it does not. There is a D2 MDT risk and a D3 MDT risk. Neither of these contain high risk equivalent probabilities.

 

[TVILLE96]

High risk for Saturday?

yes, sorry but some are saying this is not correct. Trusted radio!

 

[ColdFront]

Really interested on how the CAMs evolve. Like I keep reiterating, it’s at the end of their range and they do their best work close to the event. 12z HRRR has storms in Alabama and Mississippi early Saturday day while the 3KM NAM holds them off until 18z

 

[kcyalater]

when a thread has 90 pages two days out it tells you a few things.

the weather nerd in me is excited to see nature’s fury, but the human side of me dreads the potential of this system becoming more likely to be realized over multiple days and a large geographic area.

i want to see three-mile wide thunderous wedges ($1 to reed) in the middle of nowhere tearing up some trees, but there are some serious population centers facing a grave threat tomorrow and i can’t help but feel this is trending toward an event that we reference for a while to come.

 

[tornado examiner]

SPC has the high risk now.

And where are you getting this info? Its simply not possible til tomorrow even if they’ve already decided they’re going too. Don’t spread misinformation.

 

[MichelleH]

I'm too new and don't know the norms around here yet, but maybe we should make a new thread tomorrow morning for the actual event itself?

No, everything with this system - before, during and after - will stay in this thread. That's just how we do it. Welcome, by the way.