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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Grand Poo Bah said:
Is it possible they were just trying to seperate the extraordinary conditions in MS and AL as much as possible within the confines of the 4 teirs they're allowed to use this far out? Surely, they'll give Tennessee moderate and MS and AL high on the next outlook. At least the 30% hatched probabilistic gives you something to work with now and conveys the same message to the casual viewer as the moderate risk.
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No, because the southern edge of the "extraordinary" conditions is roughly I-20 or a county row south in MS and roughly US 80 (Demopolis to Montgomery) in Alabama. It's stunningly likely she just focused on the CSU-MLP for placement, but I'll be nice.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Fred quick question bud before I head out work. Friday nite have u ever seen a 10 percent hatched tornado risk that large before … think
They put a 15 percent risk further south perhaps memphis mid south area ?
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Big dawg, we've had tornado-driven High Risks larger than that 10% sigtor Enhanced Risk on the map more than once or twice. :D I will say that this same NAM run, while trending toward being mostly quiet in north MS/AL overnight, shows a few robust likely supercells that would be a major problem over west to middle TN/KY during the overnight... in a parameter space that isn't upper-echelon but definitely supports a couple of strong long-track tornadoes.
 
Fred Gossage said:
No, because the southern edge of the "extraordinary" conditions is roughly I-20 or a county row south in MS and roughly US 80 (Demopolis to Montgomery) in Alabama. It's stunningly likely she just focused on the CSU-MLP for placement, but I'll be nice.
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Here's a sounding @jiharris0220 shared from central Mississippi earlier.

IMG_1870.jpeg

Then there's the maximum hatched risk from the CSU model which you already mentioned.

IMG_1871.jpeg

And finally this model which seems to validate your point.



If I had to guess maybe they're seeing something in the soundings they have that won't become obvious to us until later today, and it's also what's causing the CSU model to put out never before seen day 3 probabilities for the area?
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Here's a sounding @jiharris0220 shared from central Mississippi earlier.

View attachment 35285

Then there's the maximum hatched risk from the CSU model which you already mentioned.

View attachment 35286

And finally this model which seems to validate your point.



If I had to guess maybe they're seeing something in the soundings they have that won't become obvious to us until later today, and it's also what's causing the CSU model to put out never before seen day 3 probabilities for the area?
Click to expand...

You're giving too much credit for "seeing something in the soundings" and all this other business when everybody in the professional weather enterprise has pretty much the same data (except for experimental CAM driven probabilistic stuff they have internally that we're too far out for it to cover this yet). It was a simple hugging of the CSU-MLP placement. She'd even referenced it in an outlook either yesterday or the day before, and she has a long-standing history of it. Stevie Wonder can see it and Helen Keller heard him talk about it. The most likely reason the CSU automated guidance is trying to focus there is because that's likely the modeled highest instability values. The thing is, historically speaking, the most violent storms don't happen in the middle of the CAPE bubble... they happen north and northeast of it, with that high-octane air mass feeding north into the storms. It's research from her own office. That MMFS-AI CAM run isn't the only CAM that's gotten a hold of the synoptics of this in the past 24 hours and focused the supercells from JAN/MGM north to either the TN state line or into TN. There is absolutely zero reason to have a D3 sigtor driven MDT down to south of New Orleans and almost Pensacola but not one for Tupelo, Florence/Muscle Shoals, and Huntsville.
 
At this point imma keep it plain and simple. I’m an aggressive forecaster in general and such, I’ve really tried being reserved with this system. This is a big one folks. I’ve been chasing in the region for a long time and only a handful to me have ever looked this good. These thermodynamics, especially this early in the season are extremely rare. Couple that with the typical low level jet response usually typical with most events here and you get an EXTREMELY nasty environment. At this point to me it’s very likely we have prefrontals that tap into this environment wherever it sets up. Whether that’s from cells breaking off the cold front early, warm air advection regime showers, or obviously confluence bands. Pretty much the only hindering I see at this point is nit picky boundary positions limiting the warm sector, and overconvection at initiation. That’s it. At this point to me it’s a question of coverage. Intensity potential is there. Really pay attention to this setup in the region if you live here. Starting Friday night as well I wouldn’t be shocked despite minimal forcing mechanisms if storms DID go up in the southern mode overnight. Long duration event on the way.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Here's a sounding @jiharris0220 shared from central Mississippi earlier.

View attachment 35285

Then there's the maximum hatched risk from the CSU model which you already mentioned.

View attachment 35286

And finally this model which seems to validate your point.



If I had to guess maybe they're seeing something in the soundings they have that won't become obvious to us until later today, and it's also what's causing the CSU model to put out never before seen day 3 probabilities for the area?
Click to expand...

Am I correct that the storms going through middle TN are overnight threats? Thanks!
 
Fred Gossage said:
You're giving too much credit for "seeing something in the soundings" and all this other business when everybody in the professional weather enterprise has pretty much the same data (except for experimental CAM driven probabilistic stuff they have internally that we're too far out for it to cover this yet). It was a simple hugging of the CSU-MLP placement. She'd even referenced it in an outlook either yesterday or the day before, and she has a long-standing history of it. Stevie Wonder can see it and Helen Keller heard him talk about it. The most likely reason the CSU automated guidance is trying to focus there is because that's likely the modeled highest instability values. The thing is, historically speaking, the most violent storms don't happen in the middle of the CAPE bubble... they happen north and northeast of it, with that high-octane air mass feeding north into the storms. It's research from her own office. That MMFS-AI CAM run isn't the only CAM that's gotten a hold of the synoptics of this in the past 24 hours and focused the supercells from JAN/MGM north to either the TN state line or into TN. There is absolutely zero reason to have a D3 sigtor driven MDT down to south of New Orleans and almost Pensacola but not one for Tupelo, Florence/Muscle Shoals, and Huntsville.
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She's been on the extended outlook desk all week, hasn't she? I've interacted with Liz quite a bit but never paid attention to her fondness of the CSU-MLP. Surprising to read.
 
keithGA said:
She's been on the extended outlook desk all week, hasn't she? I've interacted with Liz quite a bit but never paid attention to her fondness of the CSU-MLP. Surprising to read.
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I'm generally a Liz fan, but I've seen her do the MLP placement hugging before on more than a couple of occasions. If we had more of a signal for morning contamination, I'd understand that, but her very own outlook text mentions the clear trend away from that and mid/upper 60 dewpoints potentially reaching as far north as middle TN. Ryan Jewell will have the afternoon D3 update, then I think she will have the morning D2 tomorrow and Jewell will again have it for the afternoon D2 tomorrow for Saturday. We'll see what happens.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I'm generally a Liz fan, but I've seen her do the MLP placement hugging before on more than a couple of occasions. If we had more of a signal for morning contamination, I'd understand that, but her very own outlook text mentions the clear trend away from that and mid/upper 60 dewpoints potentially reaching as far north as middle TN. Ryan Jewell will have the afternoon D3 update, then I think she will have the morning D2 tomorrow and Jewell will again have it for the afternoon D2 tomorrow for Saturday. We'll see what happens.
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Fred, I usually lurk in the background until events start and it's tracking time, as I can't forecast my way out of a wet paper bag, lol. But just want to say again, thank you, Andy and all the other Mets for all your insight into, especially events like this one. Bringing us into a little bit of your world is a amazing tool we have here to help people learn.
 
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