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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

There's the D3 Moderate i expected to wake up too...but dang, that area is a bit bigger than i thought it'd be.

D2 Moderate is also a bit more north than i thought it'd be...everyone stay safe, it's gonna be a rough stretch.
 
Ledian said:
There's the D3 Moderate i expected to wake up too...but dang, that area is a bit bigger than i thought it'd be.

D2 Moderate is also a bit more north than i thought it'd be...everyone stay safe, it's gonna be a rough stretch.
Click to expand...
North kind baffled me some too … not sure the considered capping issues further south or
Not …. Next update should e some changes with runs today
 
I've cleaned up at least some of the dust up from overnight. I'm sure I missed a post or 3, but I do have an actual job to do :D

Let's stay on topic, please. We're in for a bumpy ride.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Incoming NAM continues the trend of the northward expansion of the warm sector well into southern middle Tennessee, with soundings like attached below as far north as places like Hohenwald, Columbia, and Lewisburg. From just after 18z on past midnight, the 6z NAM is a face value violent supercell swarm outbreak from just south of I-40 all the way down to US. 84 across MS/AL/TN and likely eventually holding on into west GA for the late night. Expect northward expansions or bodily shifts of the Saturday Moderate Risk. Nothing Leitman had access to overnight supported it being restricted and centered so far south except the CSU-MLP.

View attachment 35284
Click to expand...
Agreed. The MDT will see an expansion north and east in future outlooks.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
The next 00z WRF/HRRR runs should get Miss/Alabama into it's forecast range, if we continue trends NWS of Birmingham and Jackson may start mentioning tornado outbreak in there forecast graphics/discussion.
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I mean, BMX already mentioning an outbreak in their morning AFD…

“As such, a Level
4/5 Moderate risk has been introduced across much of Central Alabama
in response to growing concern of intense supercells, and a severe
weather outbreak now appears likely.”
 
Fred Gossage said:
I'm generally a Liz fan, but I've seen her do the MLP placement hugging before on more than a couple of occasions. If we had more of a signal for morning contamination, I'd understand that, but her very own outlook text mentions the clear trend away from that and mid/upper 60 dewpoints potentially reaching as far north as middle TN. Ryan Jewell will have the afternoon D3 update, then I think she will have the morning D2 tomorrow and Jewell will again have it for the afternoon D2 tomorrow for Saturday. We'll see what happens.
Click to expand...

I was pretty surprised by the location of the D3 moderate myself. For the same reasons you elaborated on earlier. New Orleans and Baton Rouge covered, but NW AL and HSV are not?

I saw the MLP before bed. I went back and looked at it again this morning after seeing the D3 as the placement seemed a little off to me.
 
Absolutely dreading this weekend
 
IMG_7684.jpeg
The outlook for tomorrow looks eerily similar to the outlook issued for the December 10, 2021 outbreak. Even worse is that a lot of areas hit in Western Kentucky are in the hatched area.

I’ve got a really anxious feeling about this weekend. To everyone in the areas where these storms are expected to hit, please stay safe and make sure you have a plan.
 
MidTNWx said:
I mean, BMX already mentioning an outbreak in their morning AFD…

“As such, a Level
4/5 Moderate risk has been introduced across much of Central Alabama
in response to growing concern of intense supercells, and a severe
weather outbreak now appears likely.”
Click to expand...
I meant moreso a "tornado outbreak" verbage. I saw the mention of severe weather outbreak appears likely.
 
The 3km NAM is our first CAM to come into event range, and, wow. COD's mapping tends to overdo STP, but still, quite a sight to behold.
1741872073379.png1741872086188.png1741872092515.png1741872095226.png
 
Fred Gossage said:
Incoming NAM continues the trend of the northward expansion of the warm sector well into southern middle Tennessee, with soundings like attached below as far north as places like Hohenwald, Columbia, and Lewisburg. From just after 18z on past midnight, the 6z NAM is a face value violent supercell swarm outbreak from just south of I-40 all the way down to US. 84 across MS/AL/TN and likely eventually holding on into west GA for the late night. Expect northward expansions or bodily shifts of the Saturday Moderate Risk. Nothing Leitman had access to overnight supported it being restricted and centered so far south except the CSU-MLP.

View attachment 35284
Click to expand...
SMDH….

Thanks @Fred Gossage!!!!
 
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