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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

KevinH said:
I have never seen this either. What ramifications are there if THIS verifies??
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Will leave greater specifics to other smart folks, but in the most simple terms it means there's going to be a lot of wind, from a lot of different places, moving very quickly, and will provide a lot of synoptic support for the wind fields that will setup over Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
 
Updated JAN Discussion:
A brief break in rainfall is expected Thursday night as the earlier
storm system moves out of the area. Breezy winds are expected
majority of Friday as a 4-6 mb pressure gradient develop between the
two storm systems. An active weather pattern will begin as severe
storms are expected both Friday and Saturday. A strong low pressure
centered near the upper Mississippi Valley will lift a warm front
northward, pushing mid-60 dewpoints and strong deep-layer shear (50-
60 kts) into the area Friday afternoon. Although moisture and shear
will be in place, severe weather will be dependent on how far north
the warm front moves and interactions with the instability. With
that being said, the severe threat will be ongoing late Friday
afternoon into early Saturday morning with all severe weather
hazards possible. A few adjustments were made to the severe
graphic and the Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) was extended south of
the I-20 corridor.

A potent, upper-lvl trough will migrate towards the CWA from the
Southwest region, pushing a cold front towards the southeast region.
As the trough approaches, an upper-lvl jet will help increase bulk
shear and instability areawide; resulting in a favorable severe
weather environment. With mid-60s dewpoints in place and strong
shear/SRH values, severe thunderstorms will be likely with all
hazards. A significant severe weather threat is likely all day
Saturday. Damaging winds (70mph+), large hail (2" or greater),
and tornadoes (with a few strong tornadoes possible) will be the
significant threat. In addition to the previously mentioned
hazards, heavy rain rates within storms will bring a limited
threat for low- lying flash flooding and minor river flooding for
Saturday. The cold front is expected to be out of the area by
Saturday evening, bringing an end to the severe weather threat.
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David in SW Blount said:
I kind of wish people wouldn't use the phrase "generational outbreak." I get that it emphasizes the rarity of those events, but it can give the false impression that since we just had one 14 years ago, there won't be another one for 2-3 more decades. The date of the last "generational outbreak" has no bearing on when the next one occurs. The next one could be this year or it could be 100 years from now.
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THANK YOU for saying this.
 
MichelleH said:
No, that would probably be March 21, 1932, the Deep South Outbreak, which is considered one of the "generational outbreaks." It still holds the record for the deadliest tornado day in Alabama history, even worse than 4/27/11. Depends on what source you look at as to what total you get.
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What makes 2011 stand out, is this is suppose to be the modern age with instant warnings, yet several people still died.
 
Smokedevil said:
What makes 2011 stand out, is this is suppose to be the modern age with instant warnings, yet several people still died.
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I will say that the biggest problem with 2011 was 2 things:
1. April you had at least one significant to major outbreak each week.
2. You ended up getting warning fatigue and overload.
Those are 2 key things that ended up making 4/27 worse as far as fatalities.
 
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