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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Argus said:
Could anything develop Friday in AL/GA prior to sunset?
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For Western Alabama, that looks most likely (for now).

For Eastern Alabama/Western Georgia, no. This areas threats seems to be Sat afternoon through Sun AM. James Spann is a good resource for Central Alabama.

I dont think the timing is 100% “locked in” just yet, so keep FREQUENTLY checking reliable, reputable sources (like James Spann lol) for updates.
 
JPWX said:
I will say that the biggest problem with 2011 was 2 things:
1. April you had at least one significant to major outbreak each week.
2. You ended up getting warning fatigue and overload.
Those are 2 key things that ended up making 4/27 worse as far as fatalities.
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The thing with April 27 2011. The morning storms messed up the infrastructure for alot of people. Cell service and power was out for alot of the areas hit that day. Then again alot of people did everything right that day and it just wasn't enough.
 
From John DeBlock, meteorologist from bham nws

Ok folks...time to get serious. The upcoming forecast for early this weekend has the potential to be a significant southeastern US severe weather event.

THIS is an event to take seriously. It's not one of those little whimpy winter weather tornado threats like we've had the last few months...this is a full-fledged, legitimate, bona fide "springtime in Alabama" severe weather threat.

I'm going to get right to the point...and I'm going to borrow from the well stated words of a good friend and coworker:

"If you have plans for Saturday, I highly suggest you cancel/change them! Saturday is shaping up to be a significant weather day for much of Alabama. Unfortunately, we are looking at a potential outbreak-type event. Go ahead and start preparing NOW.
There will also be a threat of severe weather late Friday into early Saturday morning. If that happens, DO NOT assume that's the end! As always, please be prepared and heed warnings. However, the main event looks to be Saturday afternoon and into the night.
US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama will be updating the attached graphic at least twice a day through Saturday. We will work on narrowing down the time frame as we get closer."

Y'all know I'm all about going to watch my daughter play softball, right? Well, they are "in town" just a few miles down the road at Montevallo this weekend, scheduled right now to play 2 on Friday and 1 game Saturday at noon. Well, guess what. I'm not going to be attending that game Saturday. I'll be in the lineup at the office for the severe weather threat. I am putting action to my concerns.

You're going to hear a lot of different things being talked about, but regardless of how significant the parameters are or what risk level gets assigned, your basic task remains the same: be prepared and maintain weather awareness over the next few days. Be the hero and make sure your family, friends, and acquantainces are as well.

The forecast details are still just a little bit hazy as far as the timing and magnitude, and meteorologists will continue to assess the threat and make adjustments and more specific forecasts as we get closer to the event, but the images below clearly represent the latest thinking of the US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama, where you should follow for the latest information.

PS...there is a low risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail and gusty winds on Thursday. Thursday is NOT the main concern through this weekend!

***DISCLAIMER*** The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not
 
bamasteve1987 said:
The thing with April 27 2011. The morning storms messed up the infrastructure for alot of people. Cell service and power was out for alot of the areas hit that day. Then again alot of people did everything right that day and it just wasn't enough.
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its not only that but also the phil campbell EF5 hitting the radar site , cause of this the rainsville EF5 sneaked in rainsville , i remember a lot of people in the rainsville area didn't take the warning serious because of all the false alarms in the area in april.
 
ColdFront said:
No but posting “ZOMG V BAD” after every sounding or saying a region “has resigned itself to existence” joking or not sucks as a contribution.

If you were joking then it’s even worse. Again, we have people on this board from Mississippi, and we have some that were personally impacted on 4/27/11. It’s one thing to hype events, but joking or whatever you’re doing about this isn’t a good look.

Again, I’m not trying to come across as harsh because as I said, you’re on the younger side. But just keep that in mind when you are posting about some of the people on here.
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There's a number of us on here that were personally impacted on 4/27. I get that something of that magnitude can be difficult to comprehend unless someone experienced it themselves. Particularly in an online "chat" style environment.

My home was heavily damaged on 4/27, and I knew multiple people who died in the Tuscaloosa/Concord/Pleasant Grove tornado. Others I knew survived due to what was essentially random chance. It remains one of the most devastating events of my life only surpassed by my father dying when I was a child. It was an awful horrible day. In the weeks afterward I sunk into a heavy depression that was difficult to overcome.

Not trying to be a Debby Downer here or tone police. Just want to reiterate that there are people on this forum with deep scars from 4/27. I think the point has been made and we can all move on. I would completely devastated to see anything resembling 4/27 take place again -- even though it is possible it will happen again in my lifetime.
 
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There was a real problem with over-warning back in the late 00s and into 2011 leading up to the big events; some of the southern WFOs had a really marginal FAR especially in QLCS events. That probably played a role in it. They have gotten dramatically better in the years since, but that was definitely back in the warning fatigue and complacency days
 
joshoctober16 said:
its not only that but also the phil campbell EF5 hitting the radar site , cause of this the rainsville EF5 sneaked in rainsville , i remember a lot of people in the rainsville area didn't take the warning serious because of all the false alarms in the area in april.
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An often forgotten EF5 from that day. 25 dead. I'm sure some people here remember the infamous anchored safe that was ripped out of the ground and thrown several hundred yards.
 
15Z SREF with some elevated values. I notice SREF tends to uptrend the closer it gets to an event, so would expect these values to increase in the coming days.
1741815360888.png1741815404726.png
 
Baxter said:
Ironically, do you guys remember the tornado that hit Atlanta downtown during the SEC playoff games in March 14, 2008?

View attachment 35199
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Ooooh yeah. Was a kiddo at the time, and was interrupted in the middle of movie-watching with family by the Tornado Warning that was issued. 2008 was just a crazy year.
 
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