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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Tanner said:
This setup is honestly trash.
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This has screamed “QLCS event with lots of crapvection” for 3-4 days now from a chaser standpoint. If people start putting caveats like “well if something can get going in the warm sector then maybe it pops off” then that’s usually a white flag lol. Not sure why there was some hype people were throwing at this system.
 
KevinH said:
The WW was just issued a little while ago and doesn’t expire for a few more hours. The line is JUST entering the WW area. Be PATIENT lol

You know Dixie Alley plays games and can have a few tricks up her sleeve. She doesn’t follow the rules.
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You gotta remember, Dixie is going to Dixie. And if Dixie Dixies, then she Dixies. Because if Dixie is Dixieing then she’s Dixie.
 
ColdFront said:
This has screamed “QLCS event with lots of crapvection” for 3-4 days now from a chaser standpoint. If people start putting caveats like “well if something can get going in the warm sector then maybe it pops off” then that’s usually a white flag lol. Not sure why there was some hype people were throwing at this system.
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Maybe not start threads and have people losing their crap 10 days in advance of an event from now on
 
TheSuckZone said:
Maybe not start threads and have people losing their crap 10 days in advance of an event from now on
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Yeah, in defense of whoever started the thread, it was potent way out and was a rare look by the SPC. However, it’s been pretty obvious the past few model runs this set up had a ton of issues present and wasn’t going to be a moderate lol but the hype train lives on
 
TheSuckZone said:
Maybe not start threads and have people losing their crap 10 days in advance of an event from now on
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I honestly don't mind threads setup ahead of time, but these days I just wait until the day before or of, because far to much changes. I don't get excited from model soundings far out, pointless.
 
tornado examiner said:
If the next trough coughs and sputters like a dying Toyota I'm not bothering with 2025 severe weather monitoring lol.
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I think you’re being melodramatic if you aren’t joking.

Our most knowledgeable posters have said this season is going to have some possible big set ups, it’s only early March lol.

As Fred said, the background state table is set, now let’s see if the Synoptics set down for dinner this spring.
 
tornado examiner said:
If the next trough coughs and sputters like a dying Toyota I'm not bothering with 2025 severe weather monitoring lol.
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I mean we're barely even starting to move into the conventional season, seems pretty early to write it all off lol. We're looking at least 3 potential events in the next couple weeks, even if it looks like this one will probably be an underperformer.
 
Latest D1 update. Most likely time for tornadoes and damaging winds later today, across southern MS and AL.
...20z Update...
In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east
across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows
discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across
southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is
expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL
through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted
by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of
stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities
were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where
very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures
climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front.
Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this
zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to
pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado
probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where
low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado.
See the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 03/04/2025
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