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Severe Weather 2025

Very general question, as I’m a complete amateur in the field of meteorology, but what is the MJO? I’ve heard it repeated multiple times here, but I’ve never asked. Is it directly related to Niño/Niña patterns?
To add to what Fred said, MJO has 8 phases including what's called the NULL phase in the inner circle. During tropical season, we look at the MJO for Atlantic tropical activity as well as the Western/Eastern Pacific. I have a spreadsheet on the MJO and Atlantic tropical activity during each phase (1975 to present day). At some point in the future, one of my projects will be looking at the severe weather/tornado events that occur in each MJO phase.
 

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To add to what Fred said, MJO has 8 phases including what's called the NULL phase in the inner circle. During tropical season, we look at the MJO for Atlantic tropical activity as well as the Western/Eastern Pacific. I have a spreadsheet on the MJO and Atlantic tropical activity during each phase (1975 to present day). At some point in the future, one of my projects will be looking at the severe weather/tornado events that occur in each MJO phase.



This might be relevant to the MJO/tornado aspects. Read it a while ago so can't remember the key info but was interesting!
 
When you see the MJO repeatedly amplify in the Indian Ocean and amplification is blocked over the Pacific, that will continue. That means the next time it cycles and amplifies again, likely in the back half of April, it will likely amplify again in the Indian Ocean. That MJO phase is favorable for ridging being off the East Coast and us being in low-latitude SW flow aloft here... favorable for severe in the spring and favorable for southern wintry weather early in the year. In order for stuff to shift north/west of Dixie, you want the MJO to amplify closer to the Pacific so that ridging is stronger and closer to the Southeast coastline or onshore, or you just want the seasonal migration that happens after April. In late May 2011, the MJO cycled again and amplified in the IO, but the seasonal migration northwestward had already begun, and the pattern still aimed at the Plains instead.

@Fred Gossage I know you are a busy man, but if you EVER launch your own YouTube like Ryan Hall, PLEASE announce it her first lol

Love your explanations. Thank you sir.
 
Just popping in to support Fred in his assessment. Fred and I have been working on this for the past few months. This is easily the most similar seasonal pattern to 2011 we've tracked since 2011, except we appear to be starting in March this time....
That is what concerns me, is starting to sound like a song I've heard before.
 
Just a disclaimer, this is in model fantasy-land so it's just speculation at this point, but the 12z Euro has a monster trough ejection on 3/13 which I thought I'd share. However, the GFS and the Euro have been consistently showing a troughing pattern coming through between 3/12-3/14 since both models have been in range and that aligns with what has been discussed regarding the larger global climate teleconnections and upcoming patterns for this spring season.

313ecmwfforecast.png500mblongwave.png
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Just a disclaimer, this is in model fantasy-land so it's just speculation at this point, but the 12z Euro has a monster trough ejection on 3/13 which I thought I'd share. However, the GFS and the Euro have been consistently showing a troughing pattern coming through between 3/12-3/14 since both models have been in range and that aligns with what has been discussed regarding the larger global climate teleconnections and upcoming patterns for this spring season.

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Yikes
 
Just a disclaimer, this is in model fantasy-land so it's just speculation at this point, but the 12z Euro has a monster trough ejection on 3/13 which I thought I'd share. However, the GFS and the Euro have been consistently showing a troughing pattern coming through between 3/12-3/14 since both models have been in range and that aligns with what has been discussed regarding the larger global climate teleconnections and upcoming patterns for this spring season.

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Looks like it time to get chase season going !
 
CPC 8-14 day hazards outlook picking up on next system
 

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Yeah I'm gonna have to bite my tongue on that one
 
If people don't want things to get political, I'm sorry, but this is going to directly affect every single weather thread in here. It is completely and utterly unconscionable.
 
Why bite your tongue. Too many people biting their tongues/afraid to speak out is why we’re here in the first place. If you’ve got a platform and a voice, use it. If not, it’s only going to get worse. Less Trump more shrimp
The shrimp you ordered.
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the-simpsons-bart-simpson.gif
 
Why bite your tongue. Too many people biting their tongues/afraid to speak out is why we’re here in the first place. If you’ve got a platform and a voice, use it. If not, it’s only going to get worse. Less Trump more shrimp
I mean, there is a political thread dedicated to politics on this site. And I agree there is a better way to make budget cuts then firing folks at NOAA/NWS.
 
Origins aside, should this even be seen political? Its black and white - an objectively bad decision. Cutting employees from an already understaffed/underfunded organization right as we enter peak severe weather season only has negative effects, and its on pretty much the entire population, who relies on the NWS (whether they know it or not). This puts people's lives at risk. It needs talking about.
 
I apologize for apparently setting off a firestorm. It was not my intention.

NOAA, NWS, SPC, and everyone will still do their best. I have no doubt of that.

The fact is though with every advancement we achieve in forecasting, new warning/watch, etc. it all comes down to the actual person to heed the warning and take proper precautions. You will never have a perfect warning system to warn everyone.
 
I apologize for apparently setting off a firestorm. It was not my intention.

NOAA, NWS, SPC, and everyone will still do their best. I have no doubt of that.

The fact is though with every advancement we achieve in forecasting, new warning/watch, etc. it all comes down to the actual person to heed the warning and take proper precautions. You will never have a perfect warning system to warn everyone.
We have amazing folks at the wheel in our WFOs - for all the machinery, software and data we have, those humans are the ones that make stuff happen. Genuinely hard to imagine what the work of sectors influenced by them, emergency management especially, would look like without them.
 
If people don't want things to get political, I'm sorry, but this is going to directly affect every single weather thread in here. It is completely and utterly unconscionable.
Musk is just using DOGE to consolidate power. You think he cares about saving a few billion from the budget or clearing the swamp? When you're that rich and powerful already, the only obstacle to gaining more wealth and power, effectively, is the government. Or at least, it is the largest obstacle. DOGE is a Trojan Horse. Musk should be considered very suspicious.
 
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