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Severe Weather 2025

I've seen 2006 come up a lot as an analog. It's considered a poor chase season due to a fairly quiet May-June, but the early season was rather active including a large outbreak from the eastern Plains to the mid-MS Valley on March 12th (it was a lot like 3/31/23 but shifted a few hundred miles to the west). Early April had several more events including another widespread one in the mid-MS Valley on 4/2 and then infamous 60% tornado outlook on April 7.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I've seen 2006 come up a lot as an analog. It's considered a poor chase season due to a fairly quiet May-June, but the early season was rather active including a large outbreak from the eastern Plains to the mid-MS Valley on March 12th (it was a lot like 3/31/23 but shifted a few hundred miles to the west). Early April had several more events including another widespread one in the mid-MS Valley on 4/2 and then infamous 60% tornado outlook on April 7.
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Seeing. Whole lot of 2011 also being used . Actually perhaps top analog
 
I was watching a video of Ryan Hall (yeah, I know) and he said something that kind of jolted my memory. He used the words “full latitude trough” for next week and for SOME reason that triggered the memory that those are bad was bad. I can’t remember why. For the Mets, what do you think about the full latitude trough that Ryan mentioned? (NOT Ryan himself, just the trough. This is not an invitation to bash Ryan.)

 
KevinH said:
I was watching a video of Ryan Hall (yeah, I know) and he said something that kind of jolted my memory. He used the words “full latitude trough” for next week and for SOME reason that triggered the memory that those are bad was bad. I can’t remember why. For the Mets, what do you think about the full latitude trough that Ryan mentioned? (NOT Ryan himself, just the trough. This is not an invitation to bash Ryan.)

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The amount of latitude (distance N-S) a trough covers is related to how amplified it is. A "full latitude" trough will be quite amplified. However the wavelength (distance E-W between the trough axis and the axis of the preceding ridge) is also important. The worst of the worst tend to be highly amplified and have a broad wavelength (4/27 was one such case).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
The amount of latitude (distance N-S) a trough covers is related to how amplified it is. A "full latitude" trough will be quite amplified. However the wavelength (distance E-W between the trough axis and the axis of the preceding ridge) is also important. The worst of the worst tend to be highly amplified and have a broad wavelength (4/27 was one such case).
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Thank you :)
 
Indeed. Does anyone have the SST values for the Gulf at this time and how that played into Spring 2011?

Gulf is apparently much warmer than it was in 2011. I will say there's some chatter about whether we're in a La Nina or not currently. NOAA thinks we are while if you go by the ONI index, we're not. Either way, if you read the current ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) vs. the February 2011 ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_022011/Forecast/forecast.shtml), both were forecasted to trend towards Neutral by Spring or by June.
 

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Don't get too wrapped up in specific seasonal analogs being mentioned. Seasonal Analog X =/= headliner event from Season X necessarily repeating. HOWEVER, analogs being thrown around are being mentioned for a reason, and that reason is not just people pulling them out of their gastrointestinal tracts. There are valid substantial similarities on the global and teleconnection scale to seasons being mentioned. A similar background state as a prior season does make it significantly less impossible than usual to have a similar outcome. Just don't get hyper-focused on a specific year or a specific date mentioned as an analog. That does nobody any good. It's up to the individual synoptic waves themselves to take advantage of the background state to whatever extent they will and help drive mesoscale factors to produce whatever end result there is. That, we can't know yet. But you don't get uncommonly favorable background states and absolutely nothing happen. The strong message is that the coming two months may be active. No, it's not going to wait until April. And now is the time to prepare.... without panicking over analogs being mentioned (valid as they are).
 
JPWX said:
Indeed. Does anyone have the SST values for the Gulf at this time and how that played into Spring 2011?

Gulf is apparently much warmer than it was in 2011. I will say there's some chatter about whether we're in a La Nina or not currently. NOAA thinks we are while if you go by the ONI index, we're not. Either way, if you read the current ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) vs. the February 2011 ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_022011/Forecast/forecast.shtml), both were forecasted to trend towards Neutral by Spring or by June.
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The difference between 2010-2011 and 2024-2025 is that 2010-2011 had a strong La Nina develop early that peaked in the fall and was in the beginning of its decaying stage come January and beyond that caused colder water to shift west as the eastern ENSO regions warmed, causing a +TNI. 2024-2025, we had a late developing La Nina that significantly intensified in Region 4 and 3.4 at the last minute to bring the overall SSTAs near the Equator to similar conditions by January through now as seen in early 2011. It's ended up being a situation of a different road leading to the same destination type thing. It's that destination we've arrived at with the highly positive TNI that will help drive the large scale pattern.
 
For those of you that see the talk about the +TNI and wonder "whomst?", do a quick google search of Trans-Nino Index in relation to tornado activity. There are several articles. In summary, the TNI is the difference between the western ENSO Region 4 and the eastern ENSO Region 1+2. Positive TNI is when the eastern region is warmer than the west (both can still be above 0.0, but eastern will be higher above 0.0). This usually happens either going into an El Nino or exiting a La Nina. Positive TNI patterns usually drive a North American upper-level pattern with ridging off the East Coast sending low-level flow from the Caribbean up into the central and eastern CONUS, with mid/upper flow from the southwest overtop, from mean troughing in the west/central CONUS. That generally sets up a background state of favorable vertical shear, low-level moisture return, EML advection, and warm sector instability for ejecting storm systems over the central and eastern CONUS. Many of the headliner outbreaks in the past have been associated with a +TNI pattern, and F3-F5 long-track frequency historically goes up significantly in +TNI patterns.
 
Fred Gossage said:
The difference between 2010-2011 and 2024-2025 is that 2010-2011 had a strong La Nina develop early that peaked in the fall and was in the beginning of its decaying stage come January and beyond that caused colder water to shift west as the eastern ENSO regions warmed, causing a +TNI. 2024-2025, we had a late developing La Nina that significantly intensified in Region 4 and 3.4 at the last minute to bring the overall SSTAs near the Equator to similar conditions by January through now as seen in early 2011. It's ended up being a situation of a different road leading to the same destination type thing. It's that destination we've arrived at with the highly positive TNI that will help drive the large scale pattern.
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Ah okay. Gotcha. Thank you my friend as always for your input!
 
Fred Gossage said:
Don't get too wrapped up in specific seasonal analogs being mentioned. Seasonal Analog X =/= headliner event from Season X necessarily repeating. HOWEVER, analogs being thrown around are being mentioned for a reason, and that reason is not just people pulling them out of their gastrointestinal tracts. There are valid substantial similarities on the global and teleconnection scale to seasons being mentioned. A similar background state as a prior season does make it significantly less impossible than usual to have a similar outcome. Just don't get hyper-focused on a specific year or a specific date mentioned as an analog. That does nobody any good. It's up to the individual synoptic waves themselves to take advantage of the background state to whatever extent they will and help drive mesoscale factors to produce whatever end result there is. That, we can't know yet. But you don't get uncommonly favorable background states and absolutely nothing happen. The strong message is that the coming two months may be active. No, it's not going to wait until April. And now is the time to prepare.... without panicking over analogs being mentioned (valid as they are).
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Absolutely love your posts @Fred Gossage. Thanks for helping to keep everyone thinking clearly.

This season may start off early, but it will be interesting to see WHERE things play out (if at all??) over the next two months.
 
JPWX said:
Indeed. Does anyone have the SST values for the Gulf at this time and how that played into Spring 2011?

Gulf is apparently much warmer than it was in 2011. I will say there's some chatter about whether we're in a La Nina or not currently. NOAA thinks we are while if you go by the ONI index, we're not. Either way, if you read the current ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) vs. the February 2011 ENSO update (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_022011/Forecast/forecast.shtml), both were forecasted to trend towards Neutral by Spring or by June.
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I don't have specific memory of the exact synoptics of everything at the time, but I do remember there was a lot of building heat in the Gulf leading up to the Easter 2020 outbreak. Helped facilitate moisture return and maintaining instability across the South well into the evening, alongside the very strong LLJ.
 
KevinH said:
Absolutely love your posts @Fred Gossage. Thanks for helping to keep everyone thinking clearly.

This season may start off early, but it will be interesting to see WHERE things play out (if at all??) over the next two months.
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When you see the MJO repeatedly amplify in the Indian Ocean and amplification is blocked over the Pacific, that will continue. That means the next time it cycles and amplifies again, likely in the back half of April, it will likely amplify again in the Indian Ocean. That MJO phase is favorable for ridging being off the East Coast and us being in low-latitude SW flow aloft here... favorable for severe in the spring and favorable for southern wintry weather early in the year. In order for stuff to shift north/west of Dixie, you want the MJO to amplify closer to the Pacific so that ridging is stronger and closer to the Southeast coastline or onshore, or you just want the seasonal migration that happens after April. In late May 2011, the MJO cycled again and amplified in the IO, but the seasonal migration northwestward had already begun, and the pattern still aimed at the Plains instead.
 
Fred Gossage said:
When you see the MJO repeatedly amplify in the Indian Ocean and amplification is blocked over the Pacific, that will continue. That means the next time it cycles and amplifies again, likely in the back half of April, it will likely amplify again in the Indian Ocean. That MJO phase is favorable for ridging being off the East Coast and us being in low-latitude SW flow aloft here... favorable for severe in the spring and favorable for southern wintry weather early in the year. In order for stuff to shift north/west of Dixie, you want the MJO to amplify closer to the Pacific so that ridging is stronger and closer to the Southeast coastline or onshore, or you just want the seasonal migration that happens after April. In late May 2011, the MJO cycled again and amplified in the IO, but the seasonal migration northwestward had already begun, and the pattern still aimed at the Plains instead.
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Very general question, as I’m a complete amateur in the field of meteorology, but what is the MJO? I’ve heard it repeated multiple times here, but I’ve never asked. Is it directly related to Niño/Niña patterns?
 
slenker said:
Very general question, as I’m a complete amateur in the field of meteorology, but what is the MJO? I’ve heard it repeated multiple times here, but I’ve never asked. Is it directly related to Niño/Niña patterns?
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Tropical area forcing of upward and downward motion waves that cycle around the globe and drive the main weather patterns, essentially.
 
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