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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Atlantic said:
We are now in the midst of a tropical cyclone outbreak in the southern hemisphere with Tropical Cyclone Rae active in the SPAC, Tropical Cyclone Alfred active in the eastern Australian Region and Tropical Cyclone Bianca active in the western Australian Region. Alfred was supposed to be named Anthony but the name was changed to avoid confusion with Australia’s Prime Minister who has the name Anthony.

Invest 92P is still classified as a subtropical cyclone.

We have Invest 96P at high chance in the SPAC and we also have Invest 97S in the Mozambique Channel in the SWIO at a low chance.

We are now at 20 designated tropical cyclones by the JTWC, it took last season until the end of March to reach the same amount of storms.
Click to expand...
>Bianca

Will she become exposed Grammy style due to shear?
 
Newly designated Invest 97S has a strange pressure of “none mb” right now.

IMG_4616.png
 
All active Tropical Cyclones or disturbances right now (visible for daytime, infred for nighttime)

Rae:
IMG_4617.jpeg
Alfred:
IMG_4618.jpeg
Bianca:
IMG_4619.jpeg
The pitiful mess that is Invest 92P:
IMG_4620.jpeg
Invest 96P:

IMG_4621.jpegInvest 95S:
IMG_4623.jpeg
And recently designated Invest 97S:
IMG_4624.jpeg

This run of the GEFS wants 95S to possibly form and get stronger:
IMG_4622.png
 
Tropical Cyclone Rae in the South Pacific is trying to form an eye and finally become the SPAC’s first hurricane force cyclone of the season, just as well that we are over halfway through the season there in that basin. The SPAC began on November 1st, 2024.


(GIF unavailable)
 
Oh and one more thing:

Invests 95S and 97S are on either side of Madagascar with 95S in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar and 97S north and east of Madagascar but near the northern east coastline.
 
First guidance on Invest 97S:
IMG_4626.png
 
Atlantic said:
Tropical Cyclone Rae in the South Pacific is trying to form an eye and finally become the SPAC’s first hurricane force cyclone of the season, just as well that we are over halfway through the season there in that basin. The SPAC began on November 1st, 2024.


(GIF unavailable)
Click to expand...
Addisons me
 
Invest 96P is a high chance invest now, while less than 24 hours after designation Invest 97S is at medium chance. Invest 95S is also now at a medium chance. Invest 92P is a failure of an invest and has now disspated.

All three tropical cyclones active right now (Rae, Alfred and Bianca) are all hurricane-force storms with Rae and Alfred both at 65 kts (75 mph) and Bianca is at 75 kts (85 mph). Rae may have already peaked but Alfred and Bianca are expected to peak at 85 kts (100 mph) before weakening. Alfred may turn westwards towards Queensland but Bianca is expected to remain out to sea (OTS)

In the South Pacific the next name is now Seru
In the Australian Region the next name is Courtney
The South-West Indian Ocean's name is still Garnace
 
It's very possible that anytime today that Invest 96P could become Tropical Cyclone 21P. If 95S, 96P and 97S all become TCs, we will be at JTWC-designated 23 TCs before the end of February, where last season had only 16 storms by the end of February.

My predictions on the three invests designations are:

21P Seru
22S Garnace
23S Honde

(Assuming all three invests form and that all three of them get named)

The twenty-first TC formed on April 5th last season.
The twenty-second TC formed on April 10th last season
The twenty-third TC formed on May 1st last season.

If all three do form, we will be nearly a month to a month and a half ahead of last years' season.
 
Here is a table to show the formation dates of each storm from all last season and all of this season so far:

All but the second storm of this season have formed earlier than the same storm designations of last season.
2024-252023-24
1October 1stOctober 21st
2November 14thNovember 13th
3November 27thDecember 5th
4December 9thJanuary 1st
5December 27thJanuary 12th
6December 29thJanuary 15th
7January 9thJanuary 23rd
8January 11thJanuary 25th
9January 13thJanuary 31st
10January 18thFebruary 5th
11January 28thFebruary 7th
12January 31stFebruary 8th
13February 1stFebruary 15th
14February 1stFebruary 15th
15February 2ndFebruary 15th
16February 8thFebruary 19th
17February 12thMarch 10th
18February 22ndMarch 11th
19February 22ndMarch 15th
20February 23rdMarch 26th
21February 24thApril 5th
22February 25thApril 10th
23February 25thMay 1st
24March 8thMay 16th
25March 8thMay 19th
 
Last edited:
Dvorak on Invest 96P (The high chance JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerted Invest) has risen to T#2.5, which is 35 kts (40 mph); so we will likely see Tropical Cyclone 21P sometime later today or tonight.

Screenshot 2025-02-24 1.46.55 PM.pngScreenshot 2025-02-24 1.49.36 PM.png
 
Invest 96P is now Tropical Cyclone 21P (Twenty-One)!! Current intensity is 40 kts (45 mph)


Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-ON
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 24, 2025:

Location: 16.4°S 170.7°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 105 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 96P is now Tropical Cyclone 21P (Twenty-One)!! Current intensity is 40 kts (45 mph)


Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-ON
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 24, 2025:

Location: 16.4°S 170.7°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 105 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
Click to expand...
The ATCF on newly formed 21P:

SH, 21, 2025022418, , BEST, 0, 164S, 1707E, 40, 983, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 25, 30, 0, 1004, 125, 30, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYONE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shF62025 to sh212025,
 
Bianca is now at 95 kts (110 mph) while Rae is at 90 kts (105 mph). Alfred has weakened under hurricane-force at 60 kts (70 mph)

By BoM, Bianca is the 5th Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season in the Australian Region. Alfred on the other hand is expected to become the 6th Severe Tropical Cyclone soon as well.
 
Atlantic said:
Bianca is now at 95 kts (110 mph) while Rae is at 90 kts (105 mph). Alfred has weakened under hurricane-force at 60 kts (70 mph)

By BoM, Bianca is the 5th Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season in the Australian Region. Alfred on the other hand is expected to become the 6th Severe Tropical Cyclone soon as well.
Click to expand...
Somehow I predicted Bianca would un-censori herself to a category 2 or low 3 using numerology + Alfred a 1
JFL if Alfred were called Anthony Albanese though
 
Well that’s about the fastest I’ve ever seen the JTWC going from designating an invest with a low chance of formation to upgrading it to high chance and issuing a TCFA on it.

This is what has happened to Invest 97S. The JTWC had designated it around this time last night, noted it as a medium chance invest around 10-11am EST on their map they issue on their homepage to now at near 7:40 pm EST.

IMG_4743.jpeg
WTXS21 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 51.3E TO 17.4S 55.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 51.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 51.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 241725Z ASCAT
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, THE 35 KNOT WIND BARS ARE FLAGGED IN THE QC VERSION OF THE
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE,
FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 97S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252200Z.//
NNNN




The Satellite Fix bulletin on this has it at T#1.5, or around 30 kts.

IMG_4744.jpeg
 
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