Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

[UncleJuJu98]

Mesoscale analysis temps/dew points vs modeled dew points.

 

[wx_guy]

Pretty rare to enlist the HH in a winter storm, but absolutely the right call. Hopefully it helps solidify the models in a big way.

 

[JPWX]

The dewpoints for the January 10th snow were just in the low to mid 20s

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Snow in Jackson Mississippi

 

[Richardjacks]

I believe the the FTW snow band is in relation to the 700 mb advection/frontogensis, if anyone cares to take a look at what the hrrr shows that doing tomorrow morning.....i can't post it right now

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I believe the the FTW snow band is in relation to the 700 mb advection/frontogensis, if anyone cares to take a look at what the hrrr shows that doing tomorrow morning.....i can't post it right now

 

[Richardjacks]

View attachment 33223

thats radar reflectivity...but prob shows 700mb frontogensis shifting south...but no doubt there is some lift with that as it passes to the south....

 

[Blountwolf]

 

[Richardjacks]

The dewpoints for the January 10th snow were just in the low to mid 20s

Tds in Birmingham was in low single digits at 6am on the 10th, per 6am sounding.

 

[MikeP]

View attachment 33224

Yeah that's exactly what I was looking at earlier. That dry air has a battle on it's hands. Even lower level IR is looking slightly better. Might not be enough however....

 

[Richardjacks]

View attachment 33224

Yes that's basically a 700mb front forming...colder air moving south. If you look at the light returns up in okc, they are moving south. It's what will end our snow chances but maybe bring our best chance for central Alabama just before and as it passes through..if it can get here before the high shuts it all down

 

[Richardjacks]

and the 0z nam has ticked north with the 700mb fronto

 

[MikeP]

and the 0z nam has ticked north with the 700mb fronto

enough to matter?

 

[sak]

enough to matter?

no. still 100 miles from a dusting in bham

 

[Richardjacks]

enough to matter?

yes, soundings look better, and its just one run maybe with some new gulf data...although I don't think that will make alot of difference up here...unless the low shifts dramatically north...or the high isn't as strong

 

[Richardjacks]

not as far south as other runs

 

[northeastatlwthrguy]

not as far south as other runs

do you think Atlanta will see any snow tomorrow?

 

[MikeP]

not as far south as other runs

subtle improvement -

 

[Taylor Campbell]

@JPWX can you please post the 50 EURO ensemble members?

 

[JPWX]

@JPWX can you please post the 50 EURO ensemble members?

12z or 18z?