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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

PopPop said:
Your knowledge and sharing of it is appreciated. I'm a little intimidated to ask questions, because I don't know that kind of stuff I "should"know. But, my philosophy is "if you don't ask, you don't know".
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"Should" know isn't a thing for me. Folks know different amounts about different stuff, and there's none of us that can know it all. Ask away.
 
Blountwolf said:
I was wondering if anyone would remember and mention the ol Snownose. :) Thanks for that.
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Blount we are OG's to an extent...in my case that would mean Old Goat and I'm not the Greatest of All Time either but yeah those were the days back then. Lot's of fun, even if not lots of snow! We need to end another drought. The Rob Smith Snow Shield must be vanquished with the quickness however! LOL!
 
Blizzard1 said:
Blount we are OG's to an extent...in my case that would mean Old Goat and I'm not the Greatest of All Time either but yeah those were the days back then. Lot's of fun, even if not lots of snow! We need to end another drought. The Rob Smith Snow Shield must be vanquished with the quickness however! LOL!
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Yep, those were the days! Thought there for a while I was going to have to bring out the Jesse Jackson of Snow on these doomsayers earlier today in here. Keep Hope Alive! :D (OG's get inside jokes - a perk!)
 
Let's talk about "Baroclinic Zones". It's relevant in this system to where our low forms and tracks. So with a little help from artificial intelligence, here's an intro to Baroclinic Zones (using this system as an example).

Understanding Baroclinic Zones: A Real-Time Example from the Current Weather System​

A baroclinic zone is a key concept in meteorology that helps us understand how and where weather systems like winter storms and cyclones develop. This term often comes up when analyzing areas of sharp temperature contrast in the atmosphere, such as the Gulf of Mexico during our current system. Let’s break it down using the ongoing upper-level low (ULL) and its potential impacts as a live example.

What Is a Baroclinic Zone?​

At its core, a baroclinic zone is a region in the atmosphere where there is a strong temperature gradient—essentially a "boundary" between warm and cold air masses. These zones act as fuel for the atmosphere, where the sharp temperature contrasts lead to energy imbalances. These imbalances provide the necessary conditions for:

  1. Cyclogenesis (development of low-pressure systems),
  2. Enhanced precipitation, and
  3. Wind intensification.
Baroclinic zones are typically found along fronts, where warm and cold air masses meet, and are particularly active in regions like the Gulf of Mexico in winter.

Current System as an Example​

Right now, we’re observing a developing winter storm expected to impact the southeastern U.S. Here’s how the baroclinic zone is playing a role:

  1. Temperature Contrast in the Gulf:
    • The Gulf of Mexico is currently acting as a source of warm, moist air, while Arctic air is diving southward from the central U.S.
    • This creates a sharp temperature gradient—cold air to the north, warm air to the south—making this area a classic baroclinic zone.
  2. Interaction with the Upper-Level Low:
    • As the ULL digs south into Baja California and eventually lifts northeast, it will align with this baroclinic zone.
    • The ULL’s energy will enhance rising motion in the atmosphere, tapping into the temperature difference to spawn a surface low in the Gulf.
  3. Baroclinicity and Cyclogenesis:
    • The baroclinic zone provides the "spark" for cyclogenesis (low-pressure formation). The Gulf’s sharp gradient creates the ideal environment for the surface low to intensify rapidly as it moves toward the southeastern U.S.

How to Spot a Baroclinic Zone​

You can identify baroclinic zones in weather maps or satellite images by:

  1. Sharp Temperature Contours: Look for closely packed isotherms (lines of constant temperature), often near fronts.
  2. Moisture and Cloud Features: Satellite water vapor images often show enhanced cloud development in these zones due to rising air.
  3. Surface Wind Patterns: Strong temperature contrasts often align with converging winds, which aid in storm formation.

Why Baroclinic Zones Matter​

Baroclinic zones are the birthplace of many weather systems, from winter storms to hurricanes. Understanding them helps us predict:

  • Where low-pressure systems will form,
  • How storms will intensify, and
  • Which regions will experience rain, snow, or severe weather.
In this case, the baroclinic zone in the Gulf is pivotal for determining whether the southeastern U.S. sees a major winter storm, and how far north or south snowfall and freezing rain occur.

Real-Time Applications​

For this ongoing system:

  • Watch for where the temperature gradient tightens in the Gulf. This will likely mark where the surface low develops.
  • Track the ULL’s movement and whether it aligns with the baroclinic zone. This alignment will determine the strength of the winter storm.
  • Use this knowledge to anticipate impacts such as precipitation type, intensity, and wind patterns in your area.
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Blountwolf said:
Yep, those were the days! Thought there for a while I was going to have to bring out the Jesse Jackson of Snow on these doomsayers earlier today in here. Keep Hope Alive! :D (OG's get inside jokes - a perk!)
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Yes, there might definitely be a distinct need for you to employ this tactic for this event! :cool:
 
Blizzard1 said:
Yes, there might definitely be a distinct need for you to employ this tactic for this event! :cool:
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I would say one of the things that prompted me to learn more was that it never worked to hope...lol. You can't wish cast a system to do what you want, you have to know what you are looking for with the science to know why it rained instead of snowed. It wasn't some magical fate, something happened... what was it? I likely learned more because of ones I hoped for that Atmospheric Anti-Climax. I had to know why.

I'm still not sold that this one couldn't still go the other way and just dump on us, but the computers certainly don't think so. And maybe I'm just still hoping.
 
Sure, with the low that far north, it's a blowtorch.
 
Thanksgivingbrown said:
Welp the Hrrr was not a good run. It had the low moving way north to Tuscaloosa. Hope this is just a drunk runView attachment 32766
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I hope this isn't the new forecast track for every model. Only in AL do you get teen temps yet every time you get precip within 24 hrs later it's still rain.
 
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